Petrocub’s home form is a clear advantage, scoring an average of 2.57 goals and conceding only 0.43 against weaker opposition, while CSF Bălți struggles away, netting just 0.5 and conceding 1.9 against stronger teams. The model therefore picks a home win, with an 82% probability, and a 13% chance of a draw versus a 5% chance of an away win. The expected total is 3.4 goals, most likely 3, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Petrocub at 13%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (99.0%), Home +2 handicap (98.8%), Under 7.5 (97.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.7%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (96.1%), and Away under 1.5 2H goals (95.4%). The model’s selection of a home win is reinforced by Petrocub’s dominant home scoring and CSF Bălți’s poor away record.
Results analysis
The win extends Petrocub’s recent run, coming off a 3-0 triumph over CSF Bălți. The model’s favourite was a home win, with an 82% probability, and it proved correct as Petrocub secured a 3-0 victory. The predicted most likely score was 3-0, achieved with a 12.2% chance, and the total goals of 3 matched the expected 3.4. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 3.5 goals at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.9%, Home +2 handicap at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.7%, Under 7.5 at 97.6%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 96.3%, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 95.2%. The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Petrocub win✓ Hit
82.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți win✗ Miss
4.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.70
2.64
0.64
1.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.75
0.88
2.71
0.86
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.43
0.50
2.57
0.43
2.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.03
1.07
1.93
0.60
2.13
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
2.05
0.60
2.20
0.50
1.90
vs Similar (10)
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.40
0.80
2.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.4%
Under 2.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.0%
3-0 ✓
12.2%
1-0
8.7%
4-0
8.6%
2-1
7.8%
3-1
7.4%
1-1
6.1%
4-1
5.2%
Petrocub goals ↓
CSF Bălți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
1.4%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.7%
6.1%
1.7%
0.3%
0.1%
2
13%
7.8%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
3
12%
7.4%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
8.6%
5.2%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrocub goals (down), columns = CSF Bălți goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Petrocub is 1.33 points better than CSF Bălți in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 0.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Petrocub is 1.33 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 0.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Petrocub is 2.22 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Petrocub or Draw✓ Hit
95.1%
Avg Implied -
82%
13%
5%
covers Petrocub + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrocub or CSF Bălți✓ Hit
87.2%
Avg Implied -
82%
13%
5%
covers Petrocub + CSF Bălți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CSF Bălți✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
82%
13%
5%
covers Draw + CSF Bălți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Petrocub over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.0%
Under
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Petrocub, so a minus line means Petrocub give that many goals of a start and CSF Bălți receive them. At -1, Petrocub must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Petrocub win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Petrocub)Actual: Petrocub
Petrocub -2
41.2%
Draw -2
22.1%
CSF Bălți +2
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Petrocub)Actual: Petrocub
Petrocub -1
63.3%
Draw -1
19.1%
CSF Bălți +1
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Petrocub)Actual: Petrocub
Petrocub +1
95.1%
Draw +1
3.6%
CSF Bălți -1
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Petrocub)Actual: Petrocub
Petrocub +2
98.8%
Draw +2
1.0%
CSF Bălți -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.30
1.21
0.21
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.50
1.14
0.43
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.07
1.29
0.00
1.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.97
0.27
0.87
0.20
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (10)
0.20
1.10
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.5%
Under 1.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.7%
Under 2.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.40
1.43
0.43
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.38
1.57
0.43
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.29
0.43
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.80
1.07
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
1.15
0.40
1.20
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.90
1.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
87.2%
Under 0.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.4%
Under 1.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.8%
Under 2.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Petrocub's squad is €5m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€5m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Petrocub's attack is €2m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Petrocub and CSF Bălți have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Petrocub's defence is €2m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€2m vs €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →