Petrocub are the clear favourites, with a 49% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of Milsami Orhei winning. The model expects 2.9 goals in total, with the most likely total being two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3% probability. Petrocub’s home form shows they average one goal scored and 1.17 conceded against similar opposition, while Milsami’s away record sees them net 1.8 goals and concede 2.4 against comparable teams. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.6% probability of hitting. The match is set to be competitive, but Petrocub’s recent win over CSF Bălăuţi and Milsami’s draw against Dacia-Buiucani suggest both sides will be cautious. The predicted outcome is a Petrocub victory, 1-1 the most likely score, and the Over 1.5 selection carries the strongest edge.
Results analysis
Petrocub’s recent form, highlighted by a win over CSF Bălți, set the stage for the home side’s confident return to the pitch. The model’s favourite, a home win at 49 percent, proved correct as Petrocub secured a 2-0 victory. The pre-match pick was backed by a 79.6 percent chance of the Over 1.5 goal market, which also hit. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total, the most likely scoreline, matched the final tally. The suggested selection “Over 1.5” was a hit, while the model’s overall call for a home win was right. The match confirmed the model’s accuracy, with all listed picks settled as predicted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Petrocub win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.30
1.40
1.07
1.07
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.17
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (13)
1.00
1.46
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (11)
2.00
0.64
2.33
0.50
1.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.17
2.29
0.93
2.06
1.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.83
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (11)
1.82
1.55
1.83
0.83
1.80
2.40
vs Weaker (13)
3.08
0.54
3.33
0.50
2.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.4%
2-0 ✓
8.2%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
Petrocub goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.4%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
1
8.4%
12%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.6%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.7%
5.5%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.4%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrocub goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saxan
2.46
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.33
Speranis Nisporeni
2.25
Zimbru
1.88
Milsami Orhei
1.75
FC Stăuceni
1.73
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Victoria Bardar
1.25
CSF Bălți
1.17
Făleşti
0.75
Spartanii Selemet
0.67
Floreşti
0.04
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Petrocub is 0.21 points worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saxan
3.69
Milsami Orhei
2.29
Zimbru
2.25
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.08
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.92
Petrocub
1.67
FC Stăuceni
1.55
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Făleşti
1.17
CSF Bălți
1.12
Olimp Comrat
1.00
FCM Ungheni
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Floreşti
0.12
Petrocub is 0.62 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50
Saxan
0.62
Dacia-Buiucani
0.92
Zimbru
1.04
Petrocub
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Speranis Nisporeni
1.25
FC Stăuceni
1.36
CSF Bălți
1.38
Victoria Bardar
1.92
Spartanii Selemet
2.29
Făleşti
2.67
Olimp Comrat
3.00
Iskra
3.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Floreşti
4.60
Petrocub and Milsami Orhei are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.57
0.29
0.57
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.10
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
1.00
0.14
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.45
0.67
0.17
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.15
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.87
0.73
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.67
0.00
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.71
0.57
0.71
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.60
1.60
0.40
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.83
1.29
0.79
1.31
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.09
1.17
0.67
1.00
1.60
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.38
1.67
0.50
1.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Petrocub's squad is €2m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Petrocub's attack is €1m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Petrocub and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
Petrocub and Milsami Orhei have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Zimbru
Dacia-Buiucani
Saxan
CSF Bălți
FC Stăuceni
Spartanii Selemet
Victoria Bardar
Speranis Nisporeni
Făleşti
Iskra
Floreşti
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FCM Ungheni
Olimp Comrat