Petrocub’s recent 3-0 victory over CSF Bălți fuels the model’s confidence that a home win is most likely, with a 68% chance versus only 12% for Milsami Orhei. The model’s pick is a Petrocub triumph, reflecting the home side’s strong average of 2.83 goals scored and just 0.83 conceded against similar opposition, while Milsami’s away form is a stark contrast: 0.75 goals scored and 3.5 conceded. The expected total goals is three, yet the most probable total is two, with a 23% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying an 11.8% probability.
The model assigns a 68% home win probability, a 20% draw probability, and a 12% away win probability. Suggested picks include an away under 3.5 goals at 99%, under 7.5 at 98.8%, under 6.5 at 96.5%, home +2 handicap at 96.3%, away under 2.5 goals at 94.9%, under 5.5 at 91.4%, home over 0.5 goals at 88.9%, and home or draw at 88.2%. Each selection is presented with its exact percentage, and no other outcome is given a winning probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Petrocub win
67.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win
11.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.67
2.71
0.57
1.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
0.87
2.83
0.83
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (15)
2.47
0.47
2.62
0.38
2.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.88
1.00
1.36
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
2.27
0.71
1.57
0.75
3.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.73
1.14
0.71
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.7%
3-0
8.6%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.7%
4-0
4.8%
Petrocub goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
3.1%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
1
9.8%
9.7%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.6%
7.1%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.8%
3.9%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrocub goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Petrocub is 0.44 points better than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Petrocub is 1.00 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Petrocub is 0.56 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Petrocub or Draw
88.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Petrocub + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrocub or Milsami Orhei
79.7%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Petrocub + Milsami Orhei
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Milsami Orhei
32.1%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Draw + Milsami Orhei
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Petrocub over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
Under
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 3.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Petrocub, so a minus line means Petrocub give that many goals of a start and Milsami Orhei receive them. At -1, Petrocub must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Petrocub win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Petrocub)
Petrocub -2
24.3%
Draw -2
20.7%
Milsami Orhei +2
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Petrocub)
Petrocub -1
45.0%
Draw -1
22.9%
Milsami Orhei +1
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Petrocub)
Petrocub +1
88.2%
Draw +1
8.0%
Milsami Orhei -1
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Petrocub)
Petrocub +2
96.2%
Draw +2
2.9%
Milsami Orhei -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.30
1.21
0.21
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
1.17
0.50
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.07
1.25
0.00
1.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.31
0.31
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.00
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.33
0.14
0.14
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.37
1.50
0.36
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.33
1.67
0.33
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.40
1.38
0.38
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.45
0.29
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.57
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Petrocub's squad is €2m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Petrocub's attack is €1m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Petrocub and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Petrocub and Milsami Orhei have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Sireți
CSF Bălți