Petrocub’s recent win over CSF Bălți and a strong home record of 1.86 goals scored with only 0.57 conceded set the stage for the favourite. The model rates a home win at 75% and assigns a 17% chance to a draw and only 8% to an away win, making the home win the clear pick. The expected total of 3.1 goals, with a 22% probability that the match will finish with exactly three goals, aligns with the most likely scoreline of 2-0, which carries a 12.8% chance. Petrocub’s dominance at home against weaker opponents and Politehnica UTM’s struggle away, scoring only 0.5 and conceding 4.0 goals to stronger teams, reinforce this outlook. The model’s suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 82.9% and Home win at 74.7%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
Petrocub’s recent form, now on a win after a 3-0 triumph, was a bright sign for the home side. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 74.7% probability, proved correct as Petrocub edged Politehnica UTM 4-1. The prediction of over 1.5 goals, at 82.9%, also hit, with five goals scored. The model’s 75% probability of a home victory matched the outcome, and the 3-goal total, the most likely scoreline, fell just short of the 4-goal reality. Politehnica’s away form, a draw after a 0-0 stalemate, did not translate into points, confirming the model’s selections largely came in.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Petrocub win✓ Hit
74.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM win✗ Miss
8.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.10
1.53
0.80
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.65
1.25
1.00
0.78
2.22
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
0.38
1.86
0.57
2.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
3.12
1.00
3.00
0.71
3.29
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
3.80
0.50
3.67
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (6)
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
6% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%
3-0
10.4%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
6.3%
0-0
5.0%
Petrocub goals ↓
Politehnica UTM goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1
9.7%
8.2%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
9.1%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
3
10%
7.4%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
6.3%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrocub goals (down), columns = Politehnica UTM goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petrocub
2.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.06
Zimbru
2.00
Sireți
1.85
Oguzsport
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.48
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.19
Politehnica UTM
1.13
Iskra
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Dacia-Buiucani
0.52
FCM Ungheni
0.50
FC Stăuceni
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Univer Comrat
0.00
Petrocub is 1.23 points better than Politehnica UTM in terms of average points per game (2.35 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FCM Ungheni
2.50
Oguzsport
2.50
Zimbru
2.26
Petrocub
2.06
Univer Comrat
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.84
Sireți
1.69
Milsami Orhei
1.52
Politehnica UTM
1.42
Floreşti
1.38
Iskra
1.00
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.97
Dacia-Buiucani
0.97
FC Stăuceni
0.91
Făleşti
0.00
Petrocub is 0.65 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petrocub
0.55
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.71
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Zimbru
1.03
Sireți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.23
Iskra
1.25
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani
1.90
FC Stăuceni
2.09
Politehnica UTM
2.19
Spartanii Selemet
2.45
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Făleşti
3.00
Univer Comrat
3.00
Oguzsport
3.50
Petrocub is 1.65 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals conceded per game (0.55 vs 2.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.82
0.62
0.12
0.33
1.44
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.15
1.00
0.29
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
1.50
0.67
1.44
0.43
1.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
2.00
0.17
1.83
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.67
1.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.82
0.62
0.88
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.23
0.86
0.29
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.31
1.62
0.33
1.56
0.29
1.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.80
0.33
1.83
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Petrocub's squad is €4m more valuable than Politehnica UTM's (€5m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Petrocub's attack is €2m more valuable than Politehnica UTM's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Petrocub and Politehnica UTM have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Petrocub's defence is €2m more valuable than Politehnica UTM's (€2m vs €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Zimbru
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți
Spartanii Selemet
Sireți
Floreşti
Dacia-Buiucani
Iskra
FC Stăuceni
Oguzsport
Victoria Bardar
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
Făleşti