Petrocub are tipped to lift the match, with the model picking a home win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. Petrocub, who have averaged 2.83 goals for and 0.83 against at home against similar opposition, are poised to add to that tally, while Sheriff Tiraspol, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.67 conceded away, will look to limit the hosts. The probabilities for the match result are 47% home win, 28% draw, and 25% away win. Suggested picks from the model include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.8%), Home +2 handicap (90.0%), and Under 4.5 (88.0%). Petrocub’s recent win over CSF Bălţi and Sheriff’s recent defeat to Zimbru set the stage for a contest where the home side’s offensive edge should prevail.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Petrocub win
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol win
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.67
2.71
0.57
1.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
0.87
2.83
0.83
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (15)
2.47
0.47
2.62
0.38
2.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
1.79
1.00
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.00
1.40
1.20
1.50
2.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.47
2.25
0.38
1.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.0%
Petrocub goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.4%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.4%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.9%
5.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrocub goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Petrocub is 0.44 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Petrocub is 0.22 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Petrocub is 0.11 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Petrocub or Draw
76.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Petrocub + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrocub or Sheriff Tiraspol
72.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Petrocub + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
50.7%
Avg Implied -
49%
28%
23%
covers Draw + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Petrocub over/under 0.5
Over
79.3%
Under
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Petrocub, so a minus line means Petrocub give that many goals of a start and Sheriff Tiraspol receive them. At -1, Petrocub must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Petrocub win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Petrocub)
Petrocub -2
10.9%
Draw -2
15.4%
Sheriff Tiraspol +2
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Petrocub)
Petrocub -1
26.3%
Draw -1
23.0%
Sheriff Tiraspol +1
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Petrocub)
Petrocub +1
76.9%
Draw +1
14.3%
Sheriff Tiraspol -1
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Petrocub)
Petrocub +2
91.2%
Draw +2
6.3%
Sheriff Tiraspol -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.30
1.21
0.21
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
1.17
0.50
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.07
1.25
0.00
1.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.20
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.41
1.12
0.38
0.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.37
1.50
0.36
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.33
1.67
0.33
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.40
1.38
0.38
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.93
0.57
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.06
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți