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Petrovac vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 11/11/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Petrovac
Petrovac
Vs
34%
31%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Petrovac win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D11D12L00D20W23L01L00D23LH·SUT26/08A·ARS03/09H·JED16/09A·BUD23/09A·MOR27/09A·MLA01/10H·DEČ07/10A·RUD21/10H·JEZ28/10A·SUT05/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.501.271.201.331.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.271.421.151.151.381.69
vs Weaker (4)1.502.002.001.501.002.50
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L22D12L01L20W11D11D22D23L11DA·BUD26/08H·PET03/09A·MLA16/09H·DEČ23/09H·RUD27/09A·JEZ01/10H·SUT07/10H·MOR21/10A·JED28/10H·BUD05/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.271.131.531.131.00
vs Stronger (10)0.901.800.802.001.001.60
vs Similar (16)1.251.121.381.501.120.75
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.000.501.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.1%
Under 2.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.5%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
10.2%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.5%
Petrovac goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
011%10%6.8%2.6%0.8%
19.9%15%7.8%3.0%0.9%
26.5%7.6%4.5%1.8%0.5%
32.5%2.9%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.7%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrovac goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Petrovac is 0.17 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Petrovac is 0.03 goals worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Petrovac is 0.50 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.61).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PetrovacPetrovac

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D10W10W00D20W12L00D00D03LH·SUT26/08A·ARS03/09H·JED16/09A·BUD23/09A·MOR27/09A·MLA01/10H·DEČ07/10A·RUD21/10H·JEZ28/10A·SUT05/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.670.470.470.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.540.620.620.460.460.77
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.000.500.501.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D00D01L20W10W11D22D22D01LA·BUD26/08H·PET03/09A·MLA16/09H·DEČ23/09H·RUD27/09A·JEZ01/10H·SUT07/10H·MOR21/10A·JED28/10H·BUD05/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.801.000.600.40
vs Stronger (10)0.600.900.401.000.800.80
vs Similar (16)0.690.691.001.120.380.25
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PetrovacPetrovac

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L02L00D00D11D01L00D20WH·SUT26/08A·ARS03/09H·JED16/09A·BUD23/09A·MOR27/09A·MLA01/10H·DEČ07/10A·RUD21/10H·JEZ28/10A·SUT05/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.870.600.730.871.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.730.810.540.690.920.92
vs Weaker (4)0.751.251.001.000.501.50
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D12L00D00D01L00D00D01L10WA·BUD26/08H·PET03/09A·MLA16/09H·DEČ23/09H·RUD27/09A·JEZ01/10H·SUT07/10H·MOR21/10A·JED28/10H·BUD05/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.330.530.530.60
vs Stronger (10)0.300.900.401.000.200.80
vs Similar (16)0.560.440.380.380.750.50
vs Weaker (4)0.250.250.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Petrovac's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Petrovac's defence is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
PET wins
2
Draws
2
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Petrovac vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from PET
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23AArsenal Tivat Vs PET2-2
05/04/23HPET Vs Arsenal Tivat0-3
07/12/22AArsenal Tivat Vs PET1-1
01/10/22HPET Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
23/07/22AArsenal Tivat Vs PET0-2

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/23ASutjeska Vs PET3-2
28/10/23HPET Vs Jezero0-0
21/10/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs PET1-0
07/10/23HPET Vs Dečić2-3
01/10/23AMladost DG Vs PET0-2
27/09/23AMornar Vs PET0-0
23/09/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs PET2-1
16/09/23HPET Vs Jedinstvo1-1
03/09/23AArsenal Tivat Vs PET2-2
26/08/23HPET Vs Sutjeska1-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/23HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-1
28/10/23AJedinstvo Vs AT3-2
21/10/23HAT Vs Mornar2-2
07/10/23HAT Vs Sutjeska1-1
01/10/23AJezero Vs AT1-1
27/09/23HAT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)2-0
23/09/23HAT Vs Dečić0-1
16/09/23AMladost DG Vs AT2-1
03/09/23HAT Vs Petrovac2-2
26/08/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Petrovac
Petrovac
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.20
HomeWDDLD1.32
AwayLDWLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.742.602.88
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.281.281.28
Conceded1.461.321.60
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLD1.30
HomeLWDDD1.08
AwayWLLDL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%20%40%
AVG goals2.442.562.32
Over 1.5 %66%72%60%
Over 2.5 %44%44%44%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.181.121.24
Conceded1.261.441.08
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet30%24%36%
Corners12.509.0016.00
Cards3.503.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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