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Petrovac vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction & Stats

Date: 14/09/2026
Time: 17:00
Petrovac
Petrovac
Vs
52%
31%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Petrovac’s defensive record at home is a key factor, having conceded only 0.2 goals per match while scoring 2.2 against weaker opposition. Arsenal Tivat, on the road, has a more porous defense, conceding 1.6 goals on average, and has struggled to find the net, scoring 1.3 against stronger teams. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.0 goals and a 28 % chance of exactly two goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Petrovac, with a 17.5 % probability. The model’s pick is a home win, with probabilities of 53 % for Petrovac, 31 % for a draw, and 16 % for Arsenal Tivat. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 %), Under 5.5 (98.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (97.4 %), Home +2 handicap (95.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1 %) and Under 4.5 (94.9 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Petrovac win
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L10W11D11D01L00D30W00D11DH·DEČ02/05A·MLA10/05H·JED16/05A·MOR20/05H·BUD24/05H·BOK01/08A·OTR09/08H·JEZ16/08A·MLA22/08H·MOR29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.971.250.750.791.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.030.971.250.750.791.21
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D03L21W14L00D00D00D00D12LA·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05A·DEČ20/05H·MLA24/05A·DEČ02/08A·MOR07/08H·BUD16/08A·BOK23/08H·OTR30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.230.861.000.941.44
vs Stronger (7)1.001.290.500.251.672.67
vs Similar (23)0.871.221.001.300.771.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%025%128%218%39%43%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.7%
Under 1.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.5%
Under 2.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.7%
Under 3.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.9%
No
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.4%
0-0
15.1%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
12.4%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
3.8%
Petrovac goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
015%7.7%2.8%0.6%0.1%
117%13%3.8%0.8%0.1%
212%7.9%2.5%0.5%0.1%
35.5%3.5%1.1%0.2%0.0%
41.8%1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrovac goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Petrovac is 0.40 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Petrovac is 0.60 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Petrovac or Draw
83.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
31%
17%
covers Petrovac + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrovac or Arsenal Tivat
69.0%
Avg Implied -
52%
31%
17%
covers Petrovac + Arsenal Tivat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arsenal Tivat
47.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
31%
17%
covers Draw + Arsenal Tivat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Petrovac over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Petrovac, so a minus line means Petrovac give that many goals of a start and Arsenal Tivat receive them. At -1, Petrovac must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Petrovac win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Petrovac)
Petrovac -2
9.6%
Draw -2
16.3%
Arsenal Tivat +2
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Petrovac)
Petrovac -1
25.9%
Draw -1
26.5%
Arsenal Tivat +1
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Petrovac)
Petrovac +1
83.3%
Draw +1
12.1%
Arsenal Tivat -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Petrovac)
Petrovac +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.7%
Arsenal Tivat -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PetrovacPetrovac

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D00D00D10W01L00D00D00D01LH·DEČ02/05A·MLA10/05H·JED16/05A·MOR20/05H·BUD24/05H·BOK01/08A·OTR09/08H·JEZ16/08A·MLA22/08H·MOR29/08
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.430.500.500.140.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.330.430.500.500.140.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L00D03L00D00D00D00D11DA·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05A·DEČ20/05H·MLA24/05A·DEČ02/08A·MOR07/08H·BUD16/08A·BOK23/08H·OTR30/08
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.530.360.500.310.56
vs Stronger (7)0.290.290.000.000.670.67
vs Similar (23)0.350.610.500.700.230.54
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PetrovacPetrovac

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W11D01L00D00D30W00D10WH·DEČ02/05A·MLA10/05H·JED16/05A·MOR20/05H·BUD24/05H·BOK01/08A·OTR09/08H·JEZ16/08A·MLA22/08H·MOR29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.750.250.640.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.530.750.250.640.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L21W11D00D00D00D00D01LA·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05A·DEČ20/05H·MLA24/05A·DEČ02/08A·MOR07/08H·BUD16/08A·BOK23/08H·OTR30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.500.500.620.88
vs Stronger (7)0.711.000.500.251.002.00
vs Similar (23)0.520.610.500.600.540.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals99.6%-------
Under 6.599.6%-------
Under 5.598.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals97.3%-------
Home +2 handicap95.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.4%-------
Under 4.595.0%-------
Away under 1.5 goals86.5%-------
Under 3.586.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals85.0%-------
Home or Draw83.3%-------
Home +1 handicap83.3%-------
Away +2 handicap74.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals73.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Petrovac's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Petrovac's defence is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
PET wins
3
Draws
2
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Petrovac vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from PET
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26AArsenal Tivat Vs PET3-1
01/03/26HPET Vs Arsenal Tivat1-0
29/10/25AArsenal Tivat Vs PET3-2
24/08/25HPET Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
04/05/25HPET Vs Arsenal Tivat2-0
08/03/25AArsenal Tivat Vs PET1-2
27/10/24HPET Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
25/08/24AArsenal Tivat Vs PET1-1

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HPET Vs Mornar1-1
22/08/26AMladost DG Vs PET0-0
16/08/26HPET Vs Jezero3-0
09/08/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs PET0-0
01/08/26HPET Vs Bokelj0-1
24/05/26HPET Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-1
20/05/26AMornar Vs PET1-1
16/05/26HPET Vs Jedinstvo1-0
10/05/26AMladost DG Vs PET1-0
02/05/26HPET Vs Dečić1-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HAT Vs Otrant-Olympic1-2
23/08/26ABokelj Vs AT0-0
16/08/26HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-0
07/08/26AMornar Vs AT0-0
02/08/26ADečić Vs AT0-0
24/05/26HAT Vs Mladost DG1-4
20/05/26ADečić Vs AT1-2
16/05/26ABokelj Vs AT3-0
09/05/26HAT Vs Sutjeska1-1
02/05/26AJezero Vs AT0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Petrovac
Petrovac
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWDD1.32
HomeWDLWD1.62
AwayLLDDD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%21%
AVG goals2.162.082.25
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %34%27%42%
Over 3.5 %18%15%21%
Scored1.161.311.00
Conceded1.000.771.25
BTTS52%38%67%
Clean Sheet28%38%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDL1.16
HomeWDLDL1.42
AwayLWDDD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%33%19%
AVG goals2.141.962.31
Over 1.5 %62%54%69%
Over 2.5 %36%33%38%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored0.901.080.73
Conceded1.240.881.58
BTTS40%46%35%
Clean Sheet38%42%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić513
80%
2.6
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
2MornarMornar612
50%
2.0
84+4
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.30.7
-
3BokeljBokelj68
33%
1.3
23-1
0.8
17%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.30.5
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic57
40%
1.4
77+0
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
5PetrovacPetrovac56
20%
1.2
42+2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.80.4
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica55
20%
1.0
24-2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.40.8
-
7JezeroJezero55
20%
1.0
25-3
1.4
40%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.41.0
-
8SutjeskaSutjeska54
20%
0.8
67-1
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
9Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat54
0%
0.8
12-1
0.6
20%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.20.4
-
10Mladost DGMladost DG54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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