Petrovac is coming off a draw, having played Otrant-Olympic to a 0-0 score. Their home form is respectable, with an average of 1.21 goals scored and 0.79 conceded against opponents of similar strength. Bokelj, on the other hand, is on a 3-game winning run, but their away form is less impressive, with an average of 0.64 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. The model favours a Petrovac win, predicting a 41% chance of a home victory, 35% draw and 24% away win. The expected total number of goals is 1.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability. The model's selection is the Home win, where it most disagrees with the market. The model also suggests Under 3.5 goals (89.3% probability) and Under 2.5 goals (73.3% probability), with a notable edge in both selections. Petrovac's home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 35%, and the away win percentage is 24%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Petrovac's 0-1 loss to Bokelj marks the end of their recent run, which had seen them come off a draw. The win extends Bokelj's 3-game winning streak, with their 0-1 victory marking their third consecutive away win. The pre-match favourite, Petrovac, failed to come through, with the model's selection, Home win, proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was an Away win. The model's selection, Home win, had a pre-match probability of 41%. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks, Under 3.5 and Under 2.5, both hit, with probabilities of 89.3% and 73.3% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Petrovac win✗ Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied 51.6% · @ 1.76
Edge
-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Dafabet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Draw✗ Miss
35.0%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.17
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
Dafabet
3.30
Betano
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
1xBet
3.16
Bokelj win✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.59
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.88
1xBet
4.76
BetVictor
4.75
Dafabet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Petrovac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.07
1.21
0.79
1.06
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.06
0.75
1.00
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.10
2.00
0.25
1.50
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bokelj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.40
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.83
2.00
2.67
2.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.68
1.20
0.80
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.8%
@ 1.46-8.1%
Under 1.5
45.2%
@ 2.47+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.43
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.7%
@ 2.43-11.2%
Under 2.5
73.3%
@ 1.48+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.51
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Under
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.7%
@ 4.69-8.8%
Under 3.5
89.3%
@ 1.14+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
35.4%
@ 2.20-6.2%
No
64.6%
@ 1.57+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
No
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.0%@ 6.34+11.3%
1-0
16.1%@ 5.00+7.7%
1-1
14.3%@ 6.13+7.4%
0-1 ✓
11.1%@ 8.93+6.4%
2-0
9.1%@ 6.82+2.9%
2-1
6.8%@ 8.37+1.7%
1-2
4.9%@ 14.57+2.0%
0-2
4.6%@ 20.57+2.6%
Petrovac goals ↓
Bokelj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
11%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
2
9.1%
6.8%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
3
3.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrovac goals (down), columns = Bokelj goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Otrant-Olympic
1.01
Petrovac is 0.36 points better than Bokelj in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
0.87
Petrovac is 0.17 goals better than Bokelj in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Sutjeska
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Mladost DG
1.50
Otrant-Olympic
1.66
Petrovac is 0.26 goals better than Bokelj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔥 6. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Otrant-Olympic
Dečić
Jezero
Mladost DG
Buducnost Podgorica
Mornar
Arsenal Tivat
Sutjeska