Petrovac and Jezero are set to clash in the Montenegro: First League on August 16. The recent storyline is one of draws, with Petrovac coming off a 0-0 result against Otrant-Olympic, and Jezero having secured a 1-0 win over Mladost DG. However, it's the defensive solidity of Petrovac that stands out, conceding just 0.5 goals on average when playing at home against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 13.8% of the time. Petrovac has been scoring 1.5 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.5. Jezero, meanwhile, has been conceding 1.64 goals away to stronger opponents, but scoring 0.82.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 49% probability. The Under 3.5 model selection is the most likely, with an 81.3% probability. The Under 3.5 model selection is the most likely. The suggested picks are: Home win (49%), Draw (30%), Away win (21%), and Under 3.5 (81.3%).
Results analysis
The win extends Petrovac's run, as they secured a 3-0 victory over Jezero. The actual result was a home win, in line with the model's prediction. Petrovac were the pre-match favourites, with a 49% chance of winning. The model's call was correct, as the home side performed well. The model's selection of Petrovac to win landed, and they scored three goals, while Jezero failed to find the net. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, which hit, with an 81.2% probability of occurrence.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Petrovac win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.84
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.89
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.07
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Jezero win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.26
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.45
Pinnacle
4.41
Betfair
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Petrovac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
1.14
0.79
1.06
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.10
1.03
1.14
0.79
1.06
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.20
1.06
0.88
0.93
1.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.24
1.07
0.93
1.09
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.45+3.6%
Under 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.47-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.46
Betfair
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.47
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.7%
@ 2.38+0.0%
Under 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.50-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.43
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
@ 4.54-1.3%
Under 3.5
81.2%
@ 1.14+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.8%
@ 2.14+1.0%
No
56.2%
@ 1.60-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
BetVictor
2.10
No
BetVictor
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.8%@ 5.12+5.5%
1-1
13.7%@ 6.05+6.7%
0-0
11.9%@ 6.62+5.5%
2-0
10.6%@ 7.12+4.7%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.67+3.9%
0-1
7.6%@ 8.58+2.7%
1-2
5.2%@ 14.00+2.1%
3-0 ✓
5.0%@ 13.83+1.9%
Petrovac goals ↓
Jezero goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.6%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
8.8%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.0%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrovac goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
1.80
Bokelj
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Petrovac is 0.20 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Sutjeska
1.20
Mornar
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Bokelj
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Petrovac is 0.40 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bokelj
0.20
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Mornar
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Petrovac is 0.60 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Petrovac or Draw✓ Hit
79.2%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.16
Edge
+0.2%
49%
30%
21%
covers Petrovac + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Petrovac or Jezero✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.9%
49%
30%
21%
covers Petrovac + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Jezero✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.84
Edge
+0.7%
49%
30%
21%
covers Draw + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.83
William Hil
1.80
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Petrovac
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.57
0.50
0.25
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.40
0.57
0.50
0.25
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.44
0.43
0.50
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Petrovac
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.57
0.29
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.63
0.57
0.29
0.81
0.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.62
0.38
0.43
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.80
0.64
0.43
0.45
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.2%
1.16
BetVictor
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.2%
1.29
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
-0.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Petrovac's squad is €3m more valuable than Jezero's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Petrovac and Jezero have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Petrovac and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Petrovac and Jezero have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →