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Petrovac vs Jezero Result & Analysis

Date: 16/08/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 3-0
Petrovac
Petrovac
Vs
49%
30%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Petrovac and Jezero are set to clash in the Montenegro: First League on August 16. The recent storyline is one of draws, with Petrovac coming off a 0-0 result against Otrant-Olympic, and Jezero having secured a 1-0 win over Mladost DG. However, it's the defensive solidity of Petrovac that stands out, conceding just 0.5 goals on average when playing at home against weaker opponents.

The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 13.8% of the time. Petrovac has been scoring 1.5 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.5. Jezero, meanwhile, has been conceding 1.64 goals away to stronger opponents, but scoring 0.82.

The model's selection is the Home win, with a 49% probability. The Under 3.5 model selection is the most likely, with an 81.3% probability. The Under 3.5 model selection is the most likely. The suggested picks are: Home win (49%), Draw (30%), Away win (21%), and Under 3.5 (81.3%).

Results analysis

The win extends Petrovac's run, as they secured a 3-0 victory over Jezero. The actual result was a home win, in line with the model's prediction. Petrovac were the pre-match favourites, with a 49% chance of winning. The model's call was correct, as the home side performed well. The model's selection of Petrovac to win landed, and they scored three goals, while Jezero failed to find the net. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, which hit, with an 81.2% probability of occurrence.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Petrovac win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.84
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.89
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.07
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Jezero win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.26
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.45
Pinnacle
4.41
Betfair
4.33
Dafabet
4.30

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L13L11D01L10W11D11D01L00DA·JEZ12/04H·SUT18/04A·ARS26/04H·DEČ02/05A·MLA10/05H·JED16/05A·MOR20/05H·BUD24/05H·BOK01/08A·OTR09/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.031.140.791.061.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.101.031.140.791.061.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D03L22D02L02L30W51W00D10WA·SUT26/04H·ARS02/05A·DEČ10/05H·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.201.060.880.931.57
vs Stronger (5)0.601.001.000.500.331.33
vs Similar (25)1.081.241.070.931.091.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.45+3.6%
Under 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.47-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.46
Betfair
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.47
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.7%
@ 2.38+0.0%
Under 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.50-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.43
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
@ 4.54-1.3%
Under 3.5
81.2%
@ 1.14+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.8%
@ 2.14+1.0%
No
56.2%
@ 1.60-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
BetVictor
2.10
No
BetVictor
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.8%@ 5.12+5.5%
1-1
13.7%@ 6.05+6.7%
0-0
11.9%@ 6.62+5.5%
2-0
10.6%@ 7.12+4.7%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.67+3.9%
0-1
7.6%@ 8.58+2.7%
1-2
5.2%@ 14.00+2.1%
3-0 ✓
5.0%@ 13.83+1.9%
Petrovac goals ↓
Jezero goals →
01234
012%7.6%3.7%1.0%0.2%
114%14%5.2%1.4%0.3%
211%8.8%3.6%1.0%0.2%
35.0%4.1%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.8%1.5%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Petrovac goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
1.80
Bokelj
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Petrovac is 0.20 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Sutjeska
1.20
Mornar
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Bokelj
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Petrovac is 0.40 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Bokelj
0.20
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Mornar
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Petrovac is 0.60 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Petrovac or Draw✓ Hit
79.2%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.16
Edge
+0.2%
49%
30%
21%
covers Petrovac + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Petrovac or Jezero✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.9%
49%
30%
21%
covers Petrovac + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Jezero✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.84
Edge
+0.7%
49%
30%
21%
covers Draw + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.83
William Hil
1.80

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PetrovacPetrovac

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L01L01L00D00D00D10W01L00DA·JEZ12/04H·SUT18/04A·ARS26/04H·DEČ02/05A·MLA10/05H·JED16/05A·MOR20/05H·BUD24/05H·BOK01/08A·OTR09/08
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.400.570.500.250.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.400.400.570.500.250.31
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L02L00D01L20W20W00D10WA·SUT26/04H·ARS02/05A·DEČ10/05H·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.440.500.500.36
vs Stronger (5)0.200.400.500.500.000.33
vs Similar (25)0.520.440.430.500.640.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PetrovacPetrovac

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D12L10W01L10W11D01L00D00DA·JEZ12/04H·SUT18/04A·ARS26/04H·DEČ02/05A·MLA10/05H·JED16/05A·MOR20/05H·BUD24/05H·BOK01/08A·OTR09/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.570.290.810.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.630.570.290.810.94
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D02L20W02L01L10W31W00D00DA·SUT26/04H·ARS02/05A·DEČ10/05H·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.620.380.431.21
vs Stronger (5)0.400.600.500.000.331.00
vs Similar (25)0.560.800.640.430.451.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.2%1.14
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+1.3%✓ Hit
Home or Draw79.2%1.16
BetVictor
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+0.2%✓ Hit
Home or Away70.2%1.29
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
-0.9%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Petrovac's squad is €3m more valuable than Jezero's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Petrovac and Jezero have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Petrovac and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Petrovac and Jezero have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
PET wins
4
Draws
0
JEZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Petrovac vs Jezero · H/A from PET
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26AJezero Vs PET1-1
21/02/26HPET Vs Jezero2-1
05/10/25AJezero Vs PET1-3
10/08/25HPET Vs Jezero1-1
26/04/25AJezero Vs PET1-1
02/03/25HPET Vs Jezero2-1
23/10/24AJezero Vs PET0-1
21/08/24HPET Vs Jezero1-1

PetrovacPetrovac

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs PET0-0
01/08/26HPET Vs Bokelj0-1
24/05/26HPET Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-1
20/05/26AMornar Vs PET1-1
16/05/26HPET Vs Jedinstvo1-0
10/05/26AMladost DG Vs PET1-0
02/05/26HPET Vs Dečić1-1
26/04/26AArsenal Tivat Vs PET3-1
18/04/26HPET Vs Sutjeska0-1
12/04/26AJezero Vs PET1-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26HJEZ Vs Mladost DG1-0
02/08/26HJEZ Vs Mornar0-0
03/06/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs JEZ1-5
29/05/26HJEZ Vs Iskra (Montenegro)3-0
24/05/26HJEZ Vs Mornar0-2
20/05/26AJedinstvo Vs JEZ2-0
16/05/26HJEZ Vs Mladost DG2-2
10/05/26ADečić Vs JEZ3-0
02/05/26HJEZ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
26/04/26ASutjeska Vs JEZ1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Petrovac
Petrovac
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLD1.32
HomeLDWDL1.56
AwayDLLDD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.181.962.40
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %34%24%44%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored1.181.201.16
Conceded1.000.761.24
BTTS52%36%68%
Clean Sheet28%40%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.34
HomeDLWDW1.48
AwayWDLLW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%37%30%
AVG goals2.322.262.39
Over 1.5 %72%74%70%
Over 2.5 %40%41%39%
Over 3.5 %20%19%22%
Scored1.161.261.04
Conceded1.161.001.35
BTTS48%52%43%
Clean Sheet30%37%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić513
80%
2.6
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
2MornarMornar59
40%
1.8
64+2
2.0
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.8
-
3BokeljBokelj58
40%
1.6
21+1
0.6
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.40.2
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic57
40%
1.4
77+0
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
5PetrovacPetrovac56
20%
1.2
42+2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.80.4
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica55
20%
1.0
24-2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.40.8
-
7JezeroJezero55
20%
1.0
25-3
1.4
40%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.41.0
-
8SutjeskaSutjeska54
20%
0.8
67-1
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
9Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat54
0%
0.8
12-1
0.6
20%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.20.4
-
10Mladost DGMladost DG54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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