The encounter between Pisa and Catanzaro is a tight affair, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. Home and away win probabilities sit at 32% and 38% respectively, with a draw at 30%. The expected goal total hovers around 2.4, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Pisa, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, while Catanzaro on the road averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (97.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3% with a 6% edge), and Under 5.5 (96.4% with a 2% edge). Pisa’s recent five-match losing streak and Catanzaro’s return from a defeat add to the uncertainty, but the slight edge to the away side remains.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Catanzaro, fell short as Pisa edged them 2-1, extending their recent win after a string of losses. The model had tipped an away win with a 37% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.7%, Under 6.5 at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 97.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, and Under 5.5 at 96.4%. The match finished with a 2-1 home victory, confirming the model’s predictions on total goals and fouls but not on the winner.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pisa win✓ Hit
33.4%
Avg Implied 50.2% · @ 1.86
Edge
-16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Dafabet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.30
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.43
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Betano
3.35
Catanzaro win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.37
Edge
+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.65
Dafabet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.54
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pisa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.00
0.60
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.83
0.33
2.17
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.47
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Catanzaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Catanzaro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.37
1.93
1.00
1.62
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.44
1.92
1.08
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
@ 1.36+3.1%
Under 1.5
28.2%
@ 2.99-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.13
Superbet
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.15+0.8%
Under 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.68-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.5%
@ 3.88-0.6%
Under 3.5
76.5%
@ 1.23+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.08
Superbet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.4%
@ 1.93+3.3%
No
48.6%
@ 1.79-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
No
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.06+6.9%
0-0
9.8%@ 7.73+4.0%
0-1
9.5%@ 9.83+5.0%
1-0
8.9%@ 5.80+1.2%
1-2
8.2%@ 13.32+4.8%
2-1 ✓
7.7%@ 7.96+2.1%
0-2
6.8%@ 20.96+4.7%
2-0
6.1%@ 7.82+0.4%
Pisa goals ↓
Catanzaro goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
9.5%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.9%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.1%
7.7%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pisa goals (down), columns = Catanzaro goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Pisa is 0.14 points better than Catanzaro in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Pisa is 0.00 goals worse than Catanzaro in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Pisa is 0.28 goals better than Catanzaro in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pisa
For 2.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.2 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Catanzaro
For 5.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 16.8 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pisa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.1
8.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
24.9
25.6
24.2
vs Stronger (18)
8.1
7.8
8.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
22.7
24.6
20.8
vs Similar (27)
8.6
8.1
9.2
3.9
4.1
3.8
26.4
26.8
26.1
vs Weaker (5)
8.6
9.5
8.0
5.2
4.0
6.0
24.8
22.0
26.7
% over line
38%
40%
36%
54%
60%
48%
76%
84%
68%
% under line
62%
60%
64%
46%
40%
52%
24%
16%
32%
This opponent (Catanzaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Catanzaro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.6
8.2
4.9
5.1
4.8
30.8
30.9
30.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
8.6
9.2
7.8
4.9
4.8
5.0
30.7
31.0
30.4
vs Weaker (9)
10.4
11.2
9.8
5.1
6.5
4.0
30.9
30.2
31.4
% over line
42%
56%
28%
66%
76%
56%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
58%
44%
72%
34%
24%
44%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Pisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Carrarese
10.6
Vicenza Virtus
10.4
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
9.9
Ascoli
9.6
Palermo
9.5
Cesena
9.4
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Sampdoria
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
8.9
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.4
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.7
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.6
Ascoli
32.6
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Avellino
30.8
Vicenza Virtus
30.0
Virtus Entella
29.9
Juve Stabia
29.7
Empoli
29.6
Padova
28.7
Modena
28.6
Benevento
28.4
Carrarese
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.1
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
24.9
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.90
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.52
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pisa or Draw✓ Hit
60.9%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.19
Edge
-17.5%
33%
30%
37%
covers Pisa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pisa or Catanzaro✓ Hit
70.0%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.30
Edge
-2.3%
33%
30%
37%
covers Pisa + Catanzaro
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.31
Draw or Catanzaro✗ Miss
69.2%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.90
Edge
+19.8%
33%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Catanzaro
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.94
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pisa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.4%
@ 1.21-9.3%
Under
32.6%
@ 3.97+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.28
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Pisa over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.8%
@ 2.08-14.1%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.70+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.71
Pisa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 4.44-10.6%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.18+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.52
10Bet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Pisa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 9.62-7.0%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
9.90
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Catanzaro over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.5%
@ 1.58+13.9%
Under
27.5%
@ 2.25-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Catanzaro over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.0%
@ 3.89+13.1%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.22-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.16
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Superbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Catanzaro over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 10.68+5.3%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.03-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Catanzaro over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 37.50-95.8%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pisa, so a minus line means Pisa give that many goals of a start and Catanzaro receive them. At -1, Pisa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pisa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pisa)Actual: Catanzaro
Pisa -2
4.0%
@ 7.56-7.9%
Draw -2
8.9%
@ 5.35-7.9%
Catanzaro +2
87.2%
@ 1.26+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Pisa)Actual: Draw
Pisa -1
12.8%
@ 3.40-13.3%
Draw -1
18.0%
@ 3.38-8.3%
Catanzaro +1
69.2%
@ 1.87+21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Away
Marathonbet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.88
Betfair
1.83
Handicap +1 (Pisa)Actual: Pisa
Pisa +1
60.9%
@ 1.19-14.3%
Draw +1
20.9%
@ 5.60+4.9%
Catanzaro -1
18.2%
@ 10.15+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.40
Handicap +2 (Pisa)Actual: Pisa
Pisa +2
81.8%
@ 1.04-9.1%
Draw +2
11.8%
@ 14.50+5.3%
Catanzaro -2
6.4%
@ 37.50+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pisa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.13
0.47
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.08
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Catanzaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Catanzaro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.43
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.56
1.00
0.46
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Pisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.6%
@ 1.45+5.6%
Under 0.5
30.4%
@ 2.59-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
Superbet
2.70
William Hil
2.70
Betano
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 3.11+4.9%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.33-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 8.18+1.0%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.05-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
William Hil
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pisa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.89-2.0%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.83+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Pisa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.5%
@ 5.32-3.9%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Pisa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 15.33-3.7%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Catanzaro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.0%
@ 2.79+8.7%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.39-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.86
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Catanzaro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 10.09-0.7%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.02+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Catanzaro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 45.00-98.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pisa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.47
1.20
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.75
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.83
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.82
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Catanzaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Catanzaro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
0.93
0.57
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.88
0.92
0.62
0.58
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.9%
@ 1.28+4.0%
Under 0.5
23.1%
@ 3.42-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Under
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.2%
@ 2.32+0.8%
Under 1.5
58.8%
@ 1.57-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.0%
@ 5.17-1.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
@ 1.14+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pisa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.2%
@ 1.62-2.0%
Under
44.8%
@ 2.17+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Pisa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 3.91-6.5%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.21+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Pisa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 10.17-4.4%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Catanzaro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.1%
@ 2.26+7.1%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.57-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.52
Catanzaro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 7.66+3.0%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.06-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.50
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Catanzaro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 20.75-2.2%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
10Bet
1.06
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.6%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
87.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+15.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
85.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-9.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.24
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.5%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.5%
1.58
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
+13.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.8%
1.36
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
+3.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pisa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giuseppe Leone33%
Simone Canestrelli33%
Matteo Tramoni0%
Mehdi Léris0%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Simone Zanon0%
Isak Vural0%
Emanuele Rao0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isak Vural67%
Simone Zanon33%
Matteo Tramoni0%
Mehdi Léris0%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Giuseppe Leone0%
Simone Canestrelli0%
Emanuele Rao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Tramoni33%
Mehdi Léris33%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Giuseppe Leone0%
Simone Zanon0%
Simone Canestrelli0%
Isak Vural0%
Emanuele Rao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matteo Tramoni100%
Mehdi Léris33%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Giuseppe Leone0%
Simone Zanon0%
Simone Canestrelli0%
Isak Vural0%
Emanuele Rao0%
Catanzaro
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pietro Iemmello67%
Marco D'Alessandro33%
Bruno Verrengia33%
Antonio Candela0%
Jacopo Petriccione0%
Nicola Mosti0%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Matias Antonini0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
Gabriele Alesi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacopo Petriccione67%
Matias Antonini67%
Pietro Iemmello33%
Marco Ruggero33%
Gabriele Alesi33%
Antonio Candela0%
Marco D'Alessandro0%
Nicola Mosti0%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
Bruno Verrengia0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antonio Candela33%
Marco D'Alessandro33%
Matias Antonini33%
Gabriele Alesi33%
Pietro Iemmello0%
Jacopo Petriccione0%
Nicola Mosti0%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
Bruno Verrengia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pietro Iemmello33%
Antonio Candela0%
Marco D'Alessandro0%
Jacopo Petriccione0%
Nicola Mosti0%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Marco Ruggero0%
Matias Antonini0%
Mehdi Dorval0%
Gabriele Alesi0%
Bruno Verrengia0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Pisa's squad is €50m more valuable than Catanzaro's (€71m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Pisa's attack is €12m more valuable than Catanzaro's (€24m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Pisa's midfield is €24m more valuable than Catanzaro's (€26m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Pisa's defence is €14m more valuable than Catanzaro's (€22m vs €8m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Virtus Entella
Cremonese