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Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów Result & Analysis

Date: 07/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-1
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Podbeskidzie are favoured to win, with the model picking a home victory and a 49% chance of taking the match. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% probability. Home side Podbeskidzie, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.93 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Stal Rzeszów, on the road against a weaker team, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The draw probability sits at 28%, while an away win is 23%. Suggested picks from the model include Under 3.5 with a 74.2% chance and Over 1.5 with a 73.9% chance. Recent form hints at a turnaround: Podbeskidzie have suffered two straight defeats, whereas Stal Rzeszów are on a two-game winning run. The match is expected to be competitive, but the odds lean toward a Podbeskidzie win.

Results analysis

The upset was immediate: Podbeskidzie’s home form, after two straight defeats, could not prevent Stal Rzeszów from securing a 1-0 away win. The pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win at 49%, was wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: Under 3.5, at 74.2%, hit, while Over 1.5, at 73.9%, missed. The final score of 0-1 confirms the away victory. The match also saw the model’s predicted total of 2.6 goals, with 2 goals the most likely outcome at 26%. Stal Rzeszów’s recent two-game winning run and Podbeskidzie’s struggle at home underscore the unexpected result.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Podbeskidzie win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów win✓ Hit
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D11D01L21W03L11D22D11D02LH·WIS23/07H·ZNI29/07A·RES07/08A·ODR12/08H·ZAG18/08A·LEC25/08H·GKS03/09A·NIE17/09H·GÓR22/09A·POL29/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.431.931.141.311.69
vs Stronger (30)1.601.431.931.141.311.69
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-525L12L00D23L12L21W23L01L21W21WH·ODR24/07H·TYC30/07A·WIS05/08H·ARK13/08A·MIE20/08H·CHR27/08A·MOT03/09H·WIS15/09A·ZNI24/09H·RES30/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.472.001.400.931.53
vs Stronger (5)0.801.600.501.001.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.581.422.231.460.821.36
vs Weaker (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.4%
0-0
8.8%
0-1 ✓
6.5%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
Podbeskidzie goals ↓
Stal Rzeszów goals →
01234
08.8%6.5%3.9%1.3%0.3%
111%13%6.1%2.0%0.5%
29.4%9.4%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.9%4.9%2.5%0.8%0.2%
41.9%1.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Podbeskidzie goals (down), columns = Stal Rzeszów goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lechia Gdansk
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.82
Arka Gdynia
1.81
Motor Lublin
1.67
Górnik Łęczna
1.60
Odra Opole
1.51
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Tychy 71
1.50
Wisla Plock
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Stal Rzeszów
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.24
Nieciecza
1.21
Polonia Warszawa
1.03
Resovia Rzeszów
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.68
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.47
Podbeskidzie is 0.74 points worse than Stal Rzeszów in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.00
Wisla Krakow
1.82
Lechia Gdansk
1.76
Nieciecza
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.58
Stal Rzeszów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Motor Lublin
1.42
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.26
Odra Opole
1.26
Polonia Warszawa
1.21
Resovia Rzeszów
1.15
Chrobry Głogów
1.03
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Znicz Pruszków
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.76
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.62
Podbeskidzie is 0.79 goals worse than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Górnik Łęczna
0.83
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Odra Opole
1.03
GKS Katowice
1.03
Arka Gdynia
1.06
Miedz Legnica
1.06
Motor Lublin
1.19
Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.38
Chrobry Głogów
1.44
Polonia Warszawa
1.47
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Nieciecza
1.53
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.62
Podbeskidzie
1.74
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Resovia Rzeszów
1.76
Podbeskidzie is 0.03 goals better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D00D10W01L00D21W10W00DH·WIS23/07H·ZNI29/07A·RES07/08A·ODR12/08H·ZAG18/08A·LEC25/08H·GKS03/09A·NIE17/09H·GÓR22/09A·POL29/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.860.570.380.56
vs Stronger (30)0.600.570.860.570.380.56
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L00D23L02L10W11D00D10W10WH·ODR24/07H·TYC30/07A·WIS05/08H·ARK13/08A·MIE20/08H·CHR27/08A·MOT03/09H·WIS15/09A·ZNI24/09H·RES30/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.870.600.470.67
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.000.000.331.33
vs Similar (24)0.750.621.000.690.450.55
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D01L11D02L11D01L01L02LH·WIS23/07H·ZNI29/07A·RES07/08A·ODR12/08H·ZAG18/08A·LEC25/08H·GKS03/09A·NIE17/09H·GÓR22/09A·POL29/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.871.070.570.941.12
vs Stronger (30)1.000.871.070.570.941.12
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L11D00D00D10W11D12L01L11D11DH·ODR24/07H·TYC30/07A·WIS05/08H·ARK13/08A·MIE20/08H·CHR27/08A·MOT03/09H·WIS15/09A·ZNI24/09H·RES30/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.831.130.800.470.87
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.501.000.670.67
vs Similar (24)0.830.791.230.770.360.82
vs Weaker (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
ML (20)
€19m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
POD (5)
€1m
Podbeskidzie's squad is €2m less valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
ML (10)
€10m
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
GK (7)
€3m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
POD (1)
€0m
Podbeskidzie's attack is €1m less valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€0m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GK (10)
€6m
LG (3)
€5m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
Podbeskidzie and Stal Rzeszów have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (8)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
POD (2)
€0m
Podbeskidzie's defence is €1m less valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€0m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
POD wins
1
Draws
1
SR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów · H/A from POD
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/23HPOD Vs Stal Rzeszów2-2
27/08/22AStal Rzeszów Vs POD5-0

PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/23APolonia Warszawa Vs POD2-0
22/09/23HPOD Vs Górnik Łęczna1-1
17/09/23ANieciecza Vs POD2-2
03/09/23HPOD Vs GKS Katowice1-1
25/08/23ALechia Gdansk Vs POD3-0
18/08/23HPOD Vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec2-1
12/08/23AOdra Opole Vs POD1-0
07/08/23AResovia Rzeszów Vs POD1-1
29/07/23HPOD Vs Znicz Pruszków1-1
23/07/23HPOD Vs Wisla Plock1-1

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HSR Vs Resovia Rzeszów2-1
24/09/23AZnicz Pruszków Vs SR1-2
15/09/23HSR Vs Wisla Plock0-1
03/09/23AMotor Lublin Vs SR3-2
27/08/23HSR Vs Chrobry Głogów2-1
20/08/23AMiedz Legnica Vs SR2-1
13/08/23HSR Vs Arka Gdynia2-3
05/08/23AWisla Krakow Vs SR0-0
30/07/23HSR Vs Tychy 711-2
24/07/23HSR Vs Odra Opole2-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL1.32
HomeDDWDD1.50
AwayDLLDL1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%23%
AVG goals2.862.503.23
Over 1.5 %73%64%82%
Over 2.5 %50%36%64%
Over 3.5 %36%27%45%
Scored1.481.451.50
Conceded1.391.051.73
BTTS57%50%64%
Clean Sheet18%27%9%
Corners---
Cards---
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.36
HomeLLWLW1.83
AwayLDLLW0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%57%18%
AVG goals3.023.702.32
Over 1.5 %73%83%64%
Over 2.5 %62%78%45%
Over 3.5 %33%43%23%
Scored1.582.220.91
Conceded1.441.481.41
BTTS60%70%50%
Clean Sheet24%26%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Lechia GdanskLechia Gdansk3468
62%
2.0
6034+26
2.8
65%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
22
15531.81.0
-
2Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia3665
53%
1.8
5738+19
2.6
69%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.1
-
3GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice3462
53%
1.8
6835+33
3.0
76%
50%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3642.01.0
-
4Motor LublinMotor Lublin3660
47%
1.7
5143+8
2.6
75%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
19
10261.41.2
-
5Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3556
40%
1.6
3529+6
1.8
54%
29%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
6Odra OpoleOdra Opole3553
43%
1.5
4436+8
2.3
69%
43%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.0
-
7Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3451
38%
1.5
5236+16
2.6
76%
50%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.1
-
8Wisla PlockWisla Plock3451
41%
1.5
4646+0
2.7
82%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
4361.41.4
-
9Tychy 71Tychy 713451
47%
1.5
4347-4
2.6
74%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
10Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3450
38%
1.5
6250+12
3.3
82%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6251.81.5
-
11Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3448
41%
1.4
5360-7
3.3
85%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.61.8
-
12Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3442
35%
1.2
3444-10
2.3
65%
29%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
13Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3442
32%
1.2
3549-14
2.5
74%
47%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.4
-
14NiecieczaNieciecza3441
29%
1.2
5652+4
3.2
82%
68%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2211.61.5
-
15Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3435
24%
1.0
4150-9
2.7
76%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.21.5
-
16Resovia RzeszówResovia Rzeszów3434
26%
1.0
3960-21
2.9
85%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
17PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie3423
12%
0.7
2659-33
2.5
76%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.7
-
18Zaglebie SosnowiecZaglebie Sosnowiec3416
6%
0.5
2155-34
2.2
62%
32%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
Poland: I Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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