Politehnica UTM is poised for a home win, having shown resilience in recent matches, including a draw against Milsami Orhei. The model's selection, home win, is the most likely outcome, with a 53% probability. The draw percentage stands at 26%, while the away win percentage is 21%.
This match is expected to be a closely contested affair with 2.7 goals on average. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability. Politehnica UTM has been scoring 1.8 goals per game at home, where they also concede 1.5 goals on average. CSF Bălți, meanwhile, has scored 0.9 goals per game away from home, while conceding 2.1 goals on average against similar opponents.
The model suggests two selections: Over 1.5, with a 77.1% probability, and Under 3.5, with a 70.4% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Politehnica UTM's run, as they came from behind to dominate CSF Bălți 6-0. This outcome was well clear of the predicted 2.7 total goals and the most likely score of 2-0. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's call was also in line with the pre-match favourite, Politehnica UTM. The model's selection of an over 1.5 goals total hit, with a probability of 77%, while under 3.5 goals total missed, with a probability of 70.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Politehnica UTM win✓ Hit
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.87
1.80
1.60
1.53
2.13
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
2.44
1.22
2.22
1.14
2.71
vs Similar (12)
2.33
1.33
2.80
0.80
2.00
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.80
1.07
1.73
0.80
1.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
1.90
0.60
1.90
0.50
1.90
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.60
2.00
1.40
1.40
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
5.7%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
CSF Bălți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
5.3%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
1
10%
12%
5.6%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.9%
9.8%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.7%
5.7%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.5%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = CSF Bălți goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Politehnica UTM is 1.11 points better than CSF Bălți in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Politehnica UTM is 1.11 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Politehnica UTM is 1.89 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 3.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.93
0.87
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
1.38
0.67
1.22
0.57
1.57
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.42
1.40
0.40
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.77
0.27
0.73
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.70
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.73
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.06
0.56
1.00
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.92
1.40
0.40
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
1.10
0.40
1.10
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (10)
1.50
0.90
1.60
0.80
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Politehnica UTM and CSF Bălți have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and CSF Bălți have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and CSF Bălți have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and CSF Bălți have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Milsami Orhei
Sireți