Politehnica UTM are tipped to win the Super Liga clash against Dacia-Buiucani, a result the model sees as the most likely. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 13.8%. Politehnica, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded, while Dacia-Buiucani on the road averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. Home win probability stands at 43%, draw at 29% and away win at 28%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6%, Under 5.5 at 95.6% and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.4%. Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, adding a cautious tone to the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Politehnica UTM win
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani win
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.06
1.19
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.21
1.38
1.88
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (14)
2.43
1.14
2.86
0.57
2.00
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.83
1.00
2.06
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
2.05
0.64
2.18
0.67
1.89
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.0%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.0%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
Dacia-Buiucani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
7.6%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10.0%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.9%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = Dacia-Buiucani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Politehnica UTM is 0.22 points worse than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Politehnica UTM is 0.44 goals better than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Politehnica UTM and Dacia-Buiucani are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Politehnica UTM or Draw
71.6%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Politehnica UTM + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM or Dacia-Buiucani
71.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Politehnica UTM + Dacia-Buiucani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dacia-Buiucani
57.3%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + Dacia-Buiucani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Politehnica UTM, so a minus line means Politehnica UTM give that many goals of a start and Dacia-Buiucani receive them. At -1, Politehnica UTM must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Politehnica UTM win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM -2
8.0%
Draw -2
13.1%
Dacia-Buiucani +2
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM -1
21.1%
Draw -1
21.6%
Dacia-Buiucani +1
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM +1
71.6%
Draw +1
16.7%
Dacia-Buiucani -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM +2
88.3%
Draw +2
8.1%
Dacia-Buiucani -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.00
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.36
1.71
0.29
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.95
0.27
1.00
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.6%
Under 1.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
0.88
0.50
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.62
0.75
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.79
1.14
0.29
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.50
1.19
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
1.10
0.36
1.18
0.44
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.90
0.80
1.20
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.2%
Under 0.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.0%
Under 1.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Politehnica UTM and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți