PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Politehnica UTM vs Milsami Orhei Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Politehnica UTM
Politehnica UTM
Vs
43%
26%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Politehnica UTM are expected to emerge victorious in this encounter, following a recent dip in form after two consecutive defeats. The Moldovan Super Liga side has struggled to find consistency, but their home form has been somewhat more encouraging, scoring an average of 2.14 goals and conceding 1.29 at home against similar opposition.

Milsami Orhei, on the other hand, have shown resilience in their away form, scoring 3.0 goals on average and conceding 1.5 against similar opponents. However, their recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with a mix of draws and defeats.

The model predicts a 43% chance of a home win, 26% chance of a draw, and 30% chance of an away win. The most likely match result is a home win, with an expected total of 3.0 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 12.2% of the time.

The model's selection for this match is Over 1.5, which has an 81.2% probability, with a 7% edge. The home side's home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 30%.

Results analysis

Politehnica UTM's winless streak was extended as they drew 1-1 against Milsami Orhei, a result that came as a surprise given the home team's recent form. The winless run now stands at five games, following a draw in their last outing against Milsami Orhei. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, with the model's selection proving incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 43% probability, but the actual result was a draw. The model's selection was wrong. The model's suggested picks included Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 81.2% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Politehnica UTM win✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.20
Edge
+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Draw✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.39
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 45.3% · @ 1.99
Edge
-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Dafabet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W31W20W20W11D00D21W51W02L13LH·FC 17/04H·SIR24/04A·ISK01/05H·SPA04/05A·FLO09/05H·SHE04/07A·SIR11/07A·DAC18/07H·ZIM26/07A·PET02/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.632.071.861.641.442.44
vs Stronger (16)1.122.811.252.381.003.25
vs Similar (12)2.331.332.800.802.001.71
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L01L03L21W00D05L01L21W00D22DA·ZIM18/04A·CSF26/04H·PET02/05A·DAC09/05H·SHE17/05A·PET04/07H·DAC12/07H·CSF19/07A·SHE26/07H·SIR01/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.371.061.061.291.71
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.500.000.671.33
vs Similar (11)0.552.360.671.830.403.00
vs Weaker (14)1.860.791.500.752.330.83
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
@ 1.21+6.5%
Under 1.5
18.8%
@ 3.58-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Under
888Sport
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Superbet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.75+5.3%
Under 2.5
42.3%
@ 1.94-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.76
888Sport
1.75
Under
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
@ 2.83+3.2%
Under 3.5
64.7%
@ 1.34-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.90
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Superbet
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.36
888Sport
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.63+4.7%
No
39.0%
@ 2.10-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
No
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.2%@ 6.25+5.6%
2-1
9.1%@ 10.50+5.2%
1-2
7.5%@ 8.00+2.3%
1-0
7.1%@ 10.25+3.1%
2-0
6.8%@ 15.00+4.0%
2-2
6.2%@ 12.00+2.8%
0-0
6.1%@ 11.25+2.4%
0-1
5.6%@ 7.75+0.3%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
01234
06.1%5.6%4.5%2.0%0.7%
17.1%12%7.5%3.4%1.1%
26.8%9.1%6.2%2.8%0.9%
33.7%5.0%3.4%1.5%0.5%
41.5%2.1%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Politehnica UTM is 0.22 points better than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Politehnica UTM is 0.78 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Politehnica UTM is 0.22 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W21W20W00D01L00D00D31W02L01LH·FC 17/04H·SIR24/04A·ISK01/05H·SPA04/05A·FLO09/05H·SHE04/07A·SIR11/07A·DAC18/07H·ZIM26/07A·PET02/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.970.930.930.621.00
vs Stronger (16)0.561.440.621.380.501.50
vs Similar (12)1.080.421.400.400.860.43
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D21W00D02L00D00D00D10WA·ZIM18/04A·CSF26/04H·PET02/05A·DAC09/05H·SHE17/05A·PET04/07H·DAC12/07H·CSF19/07A·SHE26/07H·SIR01/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.500.380.860.71
vs Stronger (5)0.600.400.500.000.670.67
vs Similar (11)0.180.820.330.670.001.00
vs Weaker (14)1.070.360.620.251.670.50
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W00D20W10W00D21W20W00D12LH·FC 17/04H·SIR24/04A·ISK01/05H·SPA04/05A·FLO09/05H·SHE04/07A·SIR11/07A·DAC18/07H·ZIM26/07A·PET02/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.100.930.710.811.44
vs Stronger (16)0.561.380.621.000.501.75
vs Similar (12)1.250.921.400.401.141.29
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L03L00D00D03L01L21W00D12LA·ZIM18/04A·CSF26/04H·PET02/05A·DAC09/05H·SHE17/05A·PET04/07H·DAC12/07H·CSF19/07A·SHE26/07H·SIR01/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.560.690.431.00
vs Stronger (5)0.000.400.000.000.000.67
vs Similar (11)0.361.550.331.170.402.00
vs Weaker (14)0.790.430.880.500.670.33
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%1.21
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
-+6.5%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Politehnica UTM's squad is €3m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Milsami Orhei have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM's defence is €1m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€0m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
PU wins
0
Draws
3
MO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Politehnica UTM vs Milsami Orhei · H/A from PU
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25HPU Vs Milsami Orhei0-5
17/08/25AMilsami Orhei Vs PU4-1
28/06/25HPU Vs Milsami Orhei0-3

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26APetrocub Vs PU3-1
26/07/26HPU Vs Zimbru0-2
18/07/26ADacia-Buiucani Vs PU1-5
11/07/26ASireți Vs PU1-2
04/07/26HPU Vs Sheriff Tiraspol0-0
09/05/26AFloreşti Vs PU1-1
04/05/26HPU Vs Spartanii Selemet2-0
01/05/26AIskra Vs PU0-2
24/04/26HPU Vs Sireți3-1
17/04/26HPU Vs FC Stăuceni5-1

Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HMO Vs Sireți2-2
26/07/26ASheriff Tiraspol Vs MO0-0
19/07/26HMO Vs CSF Bălți2-1
12/07/26HMO Vs Dacia-Buiucani0-1
04/07/26APetrocub Vs MO5-0
17/05/26HMO Vs Sheriff Tiraspol0-0
09/05/26ADacia-Buiucani Vs MO1-2
02/05/26HMO Vs Petrocub0-3
26/04/26ACSF Bălți Vs MO1-0
18/04/26AZimbru Vs MO3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Politehnica UTM
Politehnica UTM
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.17
HomeWWWDL1.39
AwayWDWWL0.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%44%22%
AVG goals3.533.443.61
Over 1.5 %92%89%94%
Over 2.5 %69%72%67%
Over 3.5 %47%50%44%
Scored1.441.561.33
Conceded2.081.892.28
BTTS64%50%78%
Clean Sheet14%17%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD1.48
HomeLDLWD1.76
AwayLLWLD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%32%
AVG goals2.682.442.92
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %28%24%32%
Scored1.481.481.48
Conceded1.200.961.44
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZimbruZimbru919
67%
2.1
2310+13
3.7
100%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2112.61.1
-
2Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol918
56%
2.0
198+11
3.0
67%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3132.10.9
-
3PetrocubPetrocub914
44%
1.6
179+8
2.9
78%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.91.0
-
4Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani914
44%
1.6
1112-1
2.6
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.21.3
-
5Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM912
33%
1.3
1512+3
3.0
78%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.3
-
6Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei910
22%
1.1
814-6
2.4
56%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.91.6
-
7SirețiSireți97
0%
0.8
610-4
1.8
67%
33%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.71.1
-
8CSF BălțiCSF Bălți92
0%
0.2
529-24
3.8
100%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.63.2
-
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

← all matches