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Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 1-2
Politehnica UTM
Politehnica UTM
Vs
10%
18%
72%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Politehnica UTM win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol win✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-700D01L07L03L14L05L14L41W23L23LA·SPA20/07H·CSF26/07A·ZIM03/08A·SHE10/08A·MIL17/08H·PET23/08A·DAC30/08H·SPA14/09A·CSF21/09H·ZIM27/09
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.933.071.142.860.713.29
vs Stronger (8)0.503.880.503.750.504.00
vs Similar (6)1.502.002.001.671.002.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L30W11D30W11D30W20W02L10WA·DAC03/08A·AND07/08H·POL10/08H·AND14/08A·SPA17/08H·MIL24/08A·CSF31/08H·PET14/09A·ZIM21/09H·DAC27/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.800.902.060.761.461.08
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (10)1.101.501.601.400.601.60
vs Weaker (18)2.330.442.360.452.290.43
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.0%
1-2 ✓
9.4%
0-3
9.1%
1-1
8.4%
0-1
8.2%
1-3
7.7%
0-4
5.6%
1-4
4.8%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
01234
04.4%8.2%11%9.1%5.6%
12.3%8.4%9.4%7.7%4.8%
21.3%3.2%4.0%3.3%2.0%
30.4%0.9%1.1%0.9%0.6%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Petrocub
2.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.06
Zimbru
2.00
Sireți
1.85
Oguzsport
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.48
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.19
Politehnica UTM
1.13
Iskra
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Dacia-Buiucani
0.52
FCM Ungheni
0.50
FC Stăuceni
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Univer Comrat
0.00
Politehnica UTM is 0.94 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 2.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FCM Ungheni
2.50
Oguzsport
2.50
Zimbru
2.26
Petrocub
2.06
Univer Comrat
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.84
Sireți
1.69
Milsami Orhei
1.52
Politehnica UTM
1.42
Floreşti
1.38
Iskra
1.00
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.97
Dacia-Buiucani
0.97
FC Stăuceni
0.91
Făleşti
0.00
Politehnica UTM is 0.42 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.84).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Petrocub
0.55
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.71
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Zimbru
1.03
Sireți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.23
Iskra
1.25
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani
1.90
FC Stăuceni
2.09
Politehnica UTM
2.19
Spartanii Selemet
2.45
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Făleşti
3.00
Univer Comrat
3.00
Oguzsport
3.50
Politehnica UTM is 1.48 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (2.19 vs 0.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L03L14L02L02L31W20W00DA·SPA20/07H·CSF26/07A·ZIM03/08A·SHE10/08A·MIL17/08H·PET23/08A·DAC30/08H·SPA14/09A·CSF21/09H·ZIM27/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.360.711.140.431.57
vs Stronger (8)0.121.880.001.500.252.25
vs Similar (6)1.170.671.670.670.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L30W00D10W11D10W20W01L10WA·DAC03/08A·AND07/08H·POL10/08H·AND14/08A·SPA17/08H·MIL24/08A·CSF31/08H·PET14/09A·ZIM21/09H·DAC27/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.371.240.350.460.38
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.700.701.200.800.200.60
vs Weaker (18)1.110.171.360.180.710.14
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D01L06L00D00D03L12L10W03L23LA·SPA20/07H·CSF26/07A·ZIM03/08A·SHE10/08A·MIL17/08H·PET23/08A·DAC30/08H·SPA14/09A·CSF21/09H·ZIM27/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.361.710.431.710.291.71
vs Stronger (8)0.382.000.502.250.251.75
vs Similar (6)0.331.330.331.000.331.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L00D11D20W00D20W00D01L00DA·DAC03/08A·AND07/08H·POL10/08H·AND14/08A·SPA17/08H·MIL24/08A·CSF31/08H·PET14/09A·ZIM21/09H·DAC27/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.530.820.411.000.69
vs Stronger (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (10)0.400.800.400.600.401.00
vs Weaker (18)1.220.281.000.271.570.29
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.1%-------✓ Hit
Away win72.1%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Politehnica UTM's squad is €5m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€1m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM's attack is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€0m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM's defence is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€0m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
PU wins
0
Draws
2
ST wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Politehnica UTM vs Sheriff Tiraspol · H/A from PU
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/25ASheriff Tiraspol Vs PU3-0
22/06/25HPU Vs Sheriff Tiraspol0-4

Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HPU Vs Zimbru2-3
21/09/25ACSF Bălți Vs PU3-2
14/09/25HPU Vs Spartanii Selemet4-1
30/08/25ADacia-Buiucani Vs PU4-1
23/08/25HPU Vs Petrocub0-5
17/08/25AMilsami Orhei Vs PU4-1
10/08/25ASheriff Tiraspol Vs PU3-0
03/08/25AZimbru Vs PU7-0
26/07/25HPU Vs CSF Bălți0-1
20/07/25ASpartanii Selemet Vs PU0-0

Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HST Vs Dacia-Buiucani1-0
21/09/25AZimbru Vs ST2-0
14/09/25HST Vs Petrocub2-0
31/08/25ACSF Bălți Vs ST0-3
24/08/25HST Vs Milsami Orhei1-1
17/08/25ASpartanii Selemet Vs ST0-3
14/08/25HST Vs Anderlecht1-1
10/08/25HST Vs Politehnica UTM3-0
07/08/25AAnderlecht Vs ST3-0
03/08/25ADacia-Buiucani Vs ST0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Politehnica UTM
Politehnica UTM
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.29
HomeLLLWL0.43
AwayLLLLL0.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %7%14%0%
AVG goals4.004.004.00
Over 1.5 %86%86%86%
Over 2.5 %86%86%86%
Over 3.5 %64%71%57%
Scored0.931.140.71
Conceded3.072.863.29
BTTS50%43%57%
Clean Sheet7%0%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.90
HomeWDDWW2.00
AwayWLWWL1.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%59%52%
AVG goals2.622.672.57
Over 1.5 %72%63%83%
Over 2.5 %50%44%57%
Over 3.5 %28%33%22%
Scored1.781.961.57
Conceded0.840.701.00
BTTS38%37%39%
Clean Sheet48%52%43%
Corners11.00-11.00
Cards3.223.253.20

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PetrocubPetrocub3173
71%
2.4
6417+47
2.6
81%
48%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.5
-
2Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol3164
65%
2.1
5722+35
2.5
68%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.80.7
-
3ZimbruZimbru3162
58%
2.0
7032+38
3.3
87%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2112.31.0
-
4Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei3146
42%
1.5
4738+9
2.7
77%
65%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.51.2
-
5CSF BălțiCSF Bălți3137
32%
1.2
3144-13
2.4
71%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
6Politehnica UTMPolitehnica UTM3135
32%
1.1
4468-24
3.6
94%
71%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
7Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet3329
24%
0.9
3281-49
3.4
85%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.5
-
8SirețiSireți1324
54%
1.8
2214+8
2.8
69%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.71.1
-
9FloreştiFloreşti1317
31%
1.3
1817+1
2.7
69%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
10Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani3116
13%
0.5
3059-29
2.9
81%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.01.9
-
11IskraIskra1213
25%
1.1
1215-3
2.2
75%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
12FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni115
0%
0.5
1023-13
3.0
64%
45%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
13OguzsportOguzsport23
50%
1.5
57-2
6.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.53.5
-
14Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni21
0%
0.5
56-1
5.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.53.0
-
16Univer ComratUniver Comrat10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
-
17FăleştiFăleşti10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Moldova: Super Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

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