The model favours an away win, with Sheriff Tiraspol expected to edge Politehnica UTM 47% to 26% for home victory and 27% for a draw. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, but the most likely total is two goals, a 26% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% probability. Politehnica, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded, while Sheriff, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.67 goals scored and only 0.56 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.6%), Away +2 handicap (89.6%) and Under 4.5 (86.0%). Politehnica’s recent draw streak and Sheriff’s recent defeat add context, but the model’s selections remain the strongest indicators for this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Politehnica UTM win
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol win
48.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.06
1.19
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.21
1.38
1.88
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (14)
2.43
1.14
2.86
0.57
2.00
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
1.79
1.00
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.00
1.40
1.20
1.50
2.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.47
2.25
0.38
1.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
6.4%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.2%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
9.5%
8.7%
4.7%
1.9%
1
6.0%
13%
9.5%
5.2%
2.1%
2
3.9%
6.4%
5.2%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.4%
2.3%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Politehnica UTM is 0.67 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Politehnica UTM is 0.44 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Politehnica UTM is 0.44 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Politehnica UTM or Draw
51.3%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Politehnica UTM + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM or Sheriff Tiraspol
73.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Politehnica UTM + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
75.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Draw + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Politehnica UTM, so a minus line means Politehnica UTM give that many goals of a start and Sheriff Tiraspol receive them. At -1, Politehnica UTM must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Politehnica UTM win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM -2
2.9%
Draw -2
6.9%
Sheriff Tiraspol +2
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM -1
9.8%
Draw -1
14.6%
Sheriff Tiraspol +1
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM +1
51.3%
Draw +1
22.3%
Sheriff Tiraspol -1
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Politehnica UTM)
Politehnica UTM +2
73.7%
Draw +2
15.2%
Sheriff Tiraspol -2
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.00
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.36
1.71
0.29
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.20
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.41
1.12
0.38
0.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
0.88
0.50
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.62
0.75
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.79
1.14
0.29
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.93
0.57
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.06
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Politehnica UTM's squad is €5m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€1m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Politehnica UTM's attack is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM's defence is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€0m vs €3m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți