Politehnica UTM face Sirești in a match the model favours for an away win, with a 44% chance of victory, 31% for a home win and 25% for a draw. The expected total goals sit at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two, a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.6% chance. Politehnica UTM, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Sirești, on the road against a comparable side, average 3.25 goals scored and just one conceded. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 83.2%. The match is expected to see the away side edge the home side in both scoring and defending, and the overall shape leans toward a modestly high-scoring encounter.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Politehnica UTM, fresh from a draw, edged Sirești 3-1, overturning the pre-match favourite, an away win that the model had given a 44% probability to. The prediction was wrong, and the final score was a home win. The model’s sole suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 83.2% chance. Politehnica’s recent form of DLWDL and Sirești’s unbeaten streak of DDDDD set the stage, yet the home side’s 2.2 average goals per game and 1.4 conceded gave them the edge. The match finished 3-1, a result that defied the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Politehnica UTM win✓ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți win✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.44
1.64
2.21
1.00
2.69
vs Stronger (15)
1.07
3.27
1.25
3.00
0.86
3.57
vs Similar (11)
1.64
1.55
2.20
1.40
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.95
1.10
3.40
1.00
2.55
1.18
vs Stronger (11)
2.45
1.00
2.80
0.40
2.17
1.50
vs Similar (9)
3.67
1.33
4.00
1.60
3.25
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
24% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
0-1
6.4%
0-0
5.4%
1-3
5.3%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
Sireți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
6.4%
6.4%
3.7%
1.6%
1
5.0%
12%
9.1%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.5%
6.5%
3.7%
1.6%
3
2.0%
3.5%
3.1%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = Sireți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petrocub
2.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.06
Zimbru
2.00
Sireți
1.85
Oguzsport
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.48
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.19
Politehnica UTM
1.13
Iskra
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Dacia-Buiucani
0.52
FCM Ungheni
0.50
FC Stăuceni
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Univer Comrat
0.00
Politehnica UTM is 0.72 points worse than Sireți in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oguzsport
2.50
FCM Ungheni
2.50
Zimbru
2.26
Petrocub
2.06
Univer Comrat
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.84
Sireți
1.69
Milsami Orhei
1.52
Politehnica UTM
1.42
Floreşti
1.38
Iskra
1.00
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.97
Dacia-Buiucani
0.97
FC Stăuceni
0.91
Făleşti
0.00
Politehnica UTM is 0.27 goals worse than Sireți in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petrocub
0.55
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.71
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Zimbru
1.03
Sireți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.23
Iskra
1.25
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani
1.90
FC Stăuceni
2.09
Politehnica UTM
2.19
Spartanii Selemet
2.45
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Făleşti
3.00
Univer Comrat
3.00
Oguzsport
3.50
Politehnica UTM is 1.12 goals worse than Sireți in terms of goals conceded per game (2.19 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.07
0.93
1.07
0.38
1.08
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.67
0.62
1.62
0.29
1.71
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.36
1.40
0.40
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
0.43
1.70
0.10
1.55
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
0.64
1.20
0.00
1.67
1.17
vs Similar (9)
1.89
0.22
2.20
0.20
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.37
0.71
1.14
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.60
0.62
1.38
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.18
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
26% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.67
1.70
0.90
1.00
0.45
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
0.36
1.60
0.40
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.11
1.80
1.40
1.75
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Petrocub
Sheriff Tiraspol
Zimbru
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti
Dacia-Buiucani
Iskra
FC Stăuceni
Oguzsport
Victoria Bardar
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
Făleşti