Politehnica UTM are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 64% chance to a home win, 21% to a draw and 15% to a Sirebi victory. The 3.3 expected goals and the 3-goal total probability of 22% reinforce a high-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Politehnica UTM, a 9.8% probability. Politehnica’s home form shows an average of 3.33 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Sirebi’s away record is 2.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 95.2%, Home +2 handicap at 94.6%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3%. Politehnica’s recent loss to Sheriff Tiraspol is offset by Sirebi’s unbeaten run, but the venue advantage and scoring edge keep the home side ahead.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Politehnica UTM, failed to deliver as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s 64% home-win call. The game’s form narrative shows Politehnica coming off a draw and Sirești unbeaten in five, yet neither side broke the deadlock. The model’s selection was wrong, but its other picks proved accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.5%, Under 6.5 at 95.2%, Home +2 handicap at 94.6%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.7%. Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and every selection’s outcome is noted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Politehnica UTM win✗ Miss
64.3%
Avg Implied 52.3% · @ 1.73
Edge
+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Draw✓ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.62
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.85
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.62
Betano
3.60
Sireți win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 3.97
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.30
Superbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
1xBet
4.04
Betfair
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.77
2.06
1.50
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
2.40
1.22
2.22
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (13)
2.62
1.23
3.33
0.67
2.00
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.13
2.24
0.82
2.00
1.54
vs Stronger (14)
2.14
1.14
2.50
0.75
1.67
1.67
vs Similar (13)
2.38
1.38
2.43
1.14
2.33
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.4%
@ 1.16+6.8%
Under 1.5
15.6%
@ 4.03-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.66+7.5%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.07-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.75
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Bet365
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
@ 2.56+5.4%
Under 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.41-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.56
Superbet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
@ 1.61+0.8%
No
42.3%
@ 2.13-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
No
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Superbet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%@ 8.17+4.7%
2-0
9.7%@ 8.33+4.7%
1-1
9.6%@ 6.83+3.5%
1-0
7.8%@ 7.83+2.5%
3-1
7.3%@ 12.33+3.9%
3-0
7.3%@ 12.33+3.9%
2-2
5.0%@ 13.00+1.7%
0-0 ✓
4.8%@ 12.67+1.4%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
Sireți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.0%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
1
7.8%
9.6%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.8%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
7.3%
7.3%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.1%
4.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = Sireți goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Politehnica UTM is 0.56 points better than Sireți in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Politehnica UTM is 1.00 goals better than Sireți in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Politehnica UTM is 0.22 goals worse than Sireți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Politehnica UTM or Draw✓ Hit
85.1%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.18
Edge
+7.6%
64%
21%
15%
covers Politehnica UTM + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Politehnica UTM or Sireți✗ Miss
79.2%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.22
Edge
+4.0%
64%
21%
15%
covers Politehnica UTM + Sireți
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw or Sireți✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 1.93
Edge
-11.6%
64%
21%
15%
covers Draw + Sireți
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
89.4%
@ 1.10+7.1%
Under
10.6%
@ 5.10-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Under
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
4.90
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
65.5%
@ 1.69+11.1%
Under
34.5%
@ 2.02-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.64
Under
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.98
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
38.8%
@ 3.10+9.3%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.30-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
2.90
Under
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Politehnica UTM over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 7.40+6.4%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.06-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Under
1xBet
1.06
Sireți over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.5%
@ 1.39-2.2%
Under
36.5%
@ 2.67+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.65
Superbet
2.60
Sireți over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.8%
@ 2.88-4.9%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.33+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.89
Superbet
2.87
Under
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.32
Sireți over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 7.35-4.2%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.04+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
6.60
Under
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Sireți over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Politehnica UTM, so a minus line means Politehnica UTM give that many goals of a start and Sireți receive them. At -1, Politehnica UTM must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Politehnica UTM win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
0.94
0.29
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.54
1.14
0.29
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.28-0.1%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 3.15+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.12
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 2.38-3.9%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.48+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Pinnacle
2.37
Under
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.4%
@ 5.47-3.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
@ 1.11+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.6%
@ 1.65-4.2%
Under
48.4%
@ 2.09+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.62
Under
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.05
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 4.30-6.7%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.18+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.30
Under
1xBet
1.18
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.7%
@ 2.34+0.4%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.52-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.50
Sireți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 8.70-1.9%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.04+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Under
1xBet
1.04
Sireți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.03
0.88
0.69
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.33
0.56
1.00
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.85
1.33
0.33
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.29
0.53
1.00
0.85
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
0.64
1.50
0.38
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.85
1.29
0.86
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.17+2.9%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 4.15-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.1%
@ 1.87-1.1%
Under 1.5
51.9%
@ 1.82+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 3.55-5.6%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.23+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.4%
@ 1.46-3.8%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.50+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.43
Under
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.47
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.5%
@ 3.20-5.4%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.30+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.30
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 8.90-4.1%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Under
1xBet
1.03
Sireți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.8%
@ 2.02+0.9%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.71-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Sireți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 6.40-1.4%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Under
1xBet
1.08
Sireți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.4%
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
88.9%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
85.1%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.4%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
81.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.17
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
-
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.20
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.2%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
77.2%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.2%
1.33
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.32
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-
-0.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Politehnica UTM and Sireți have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →