The match is a tight contest, with the model favouring an away win. Home win 36 %, draw 26 %, away win 38 %. The average goal tally sits at 3.1, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9 % probability. Politehnica UTM, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Zimbru, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, an 82.7 % chance. This is the only suggested pick. The game remains finely balanced, with recent form hinting at a possible turnaround for Politehnica after a 0-4 loss, while Zimbru’s 2-game winning streak suggests they could maintain momentum.
Results analysis
The match saw Zimbru continue their two-game winning streak, while Politehnica UTM, fresh from a 0-4 loss, struggled at home. The model predicted an away win with a 38 % probability, and that call proved correct as Zimbru secured a 0-2 victory. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, yet the actual result was a clean sheet for the visitors. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 82.7 % probability, confirming the expected 3.1-goal total. All figures align with the data: the model’s favourite was right, and its lone pick delivered.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Politehnica UTM win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru win✓ Hit
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.93
1.86
1.57
1.38
2.25
vs Stronger (19)
1.37
2.32
1.67
2.00
1.10
2.60
vs Similar (11)
2.00
1.27
2.20
0.80
1.83
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.10
2.39
1.00
1.83
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.19
1.33
1.00
1.29
1.43
vs Weaker (14)
3.14
1.00
3.44
1.00
2.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
1-0
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
0-2 ✓
5.5%
Politehnica UTM goals ↓
Zimbru goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.0%
5.5%
2.9%
1.1%
1
5.8%
12%
8.5%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.3%
6.5%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.7%
4.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Politehnica UTM goals (down), columns = Zimbru goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Zimbru
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.38
Politehnica UTM
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.12
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.25
Politehnica UTM is 0.62 points worse than Zimbru in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.62
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Politehnica UTM
1.88
Petrocub
1.75
Dacia-Buiucani
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.00
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.62
Politehnica UTM is 0.75 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.75
Petrocub
1.12
Zimbru
1.12
Sireți
1.25
Politehnica UTM
1.50
Dacia-Buiucani
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.75
CSF Bălți
3.25
Politehnica UTM is 0.38 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.93
0.79
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
1.16
0.89
1.11
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.36
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.78
0.56
0.67
0.42
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.69
0.44
0.67
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.29
1.11
0.44
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
0.93
0.79
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
1.16
0.78
0.89
0.70
1.40
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.91
1.20
0.60
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.60
1.61
0.44
1.17
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.50
0.89
0.33
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (14)
2.29
0.71
2.33
0.56
2.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Sheriff Tiraspol
Dacia-Buiucani
Petrocub
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți