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Portadown vs Larne Result & Analysis

Date: 12/11/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 0-5
Portadown
Portadown
Vs
17%
24%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Portadown win✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne win✓ Hit
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PortadownPortadown

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L02L11D02L13L04L04L03L02LH·CLI03/09H·LAR17/09A·DUN23/09H·GLE30/09A·BAL08/10H·NEW15/10A·CRU22/10A·COL29/10H·LIN05/11A·CAR08/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.292.500.432.140.142.86
vs Stronger (4)0.002.750.002.330.004.00
vs Similar (10)0.402.400.752.000.172.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-30pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W10W20W20W40W42W04L41W40WA·CRU02/09A·POR17/09A·CAR23/09H·COL01/10A·NEW07/10H·CLI14/10A·LIN22/10A·GLE28/10H·CRU04/11H·DUN08/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.672.430.291.381.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.431.001.500.251.332.00
vs Weaker (8)2.250.383.670.331.400.40
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
0-2
10.5%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-0
6.8%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
4.9%
Portadown goals ↓
Larne goals →
01234
06.8%10.0%11%6.7%3.2%
14.4%11%9.9%6.3%3.0%
22.6%4.9%4.7%3.0%1.4%
30.8%1.5%1.5%0.9%0.4%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portadown goals (down), columns = Larne goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Linfield
2.03
Glentoran
2.00
Cliftonville FC
1.77
Crusaders FC
1.76
Coleraine FC
1.59
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.05
Ballymena United
1.03
Dungannon Swifts
0.82
Newry City AFC
0.71
Portadown
0.68
Portadown is 1.50 points worse than Larne in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 2.18).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glentoran
2.10
Linfield
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.89
Cliftonville FC
1.70
Larne
1.68
Coleraine FC
1.54
Glenavon FC
1.49
Carrick Rangers
1.18
Annagh United
1.00
Ballymena United
0.97
Newry City AFC
0.92
Portadown
0.84
Dungannon Swifts
0.78
Portadown is 0.84 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 1.68).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.58
Glentoran
0.70
Linfield
0.71
Coleraine FC
1.05
Crusaders FC
1.18
Cliftonville FC
1.40
Ballymena United
1.45
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.69
Carrick Rangers
1.95
Newry City AFC
1.95
Dungannon Swifts
2.15
Portadown
2.26
Portadown is 1.68 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals conceded per game (2.26 vs 0.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PortadownPortadown

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L01L10W01L00D02L02L00D01LH·CLI03/09H·LAR17/09A·DUN23/09H·GLE30/09A·BAL08/10H·NEW15/10A·CRU22/10A·COL29/10H·LIN05/11A·CAR08/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.211.000.290.860.141.14
vs Stronger (4)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.301.000.500.750.171.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W00D10W00D10W21W01L40W20WA·CRU02/09A·POR17/09A·CAR23/09H·COL01/10A·NEW07/10H·CLI14/10A·LIN22/10A·GLE28/10H·CRU04/11H·DUN08/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.201.290.000.500.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.290.500.000.670.67
vs Weaker (8)1.120.122.330.000.400.20
Clean sheet %80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portadown over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PortadownPortadown

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L01L01L13L02L02L03L01LH·CLI03/09H·LAR17/09A·DUN23/09H·GLE30/09A·BAL08/10H·NEW15/10A·CRU22/10A·COL29/10H·LIN05/11A·CAR08/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.071.500.141.290.001.71
vs Stronger (4)0.001.750.001.330.003.00
vs Similar (10)0.101.400.251.250.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %14% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D10W10W20W30W21W03L01L20WA·CRU02/09A·POR17/09A·CAR23/09H·COL01/10A·NEW07/10H·CLI14/10A·LIN22/10A·GLE28/10H·CRU04/11H·DUN08/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.471.140.290.880.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.860.711.000.250.671.33
vs Weaker (8)1.120.251.330.331.000.20
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portadown over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Portadown's squad is €2m less valuable than Larne's (€1m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Portadown and Larne have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Portadown and Larne have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Portadown and Larne have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
POR wins
0
Draws
1
LAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Portadown vs Larne · H/A from POR
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/22HPOR Vs Larne0-1

PortadownPortadown

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22ACarrick Rangers Vs POR2-0
05/11/22HPOR Vs Linfield0-3
29/10/22AColeraine FC Vs POR4-0
22/10/22ACrusaders FC Vs POR4-0
15/10/22HPOR Vs Newry City AFC1-3
08/10/22ABallymena United Vs POR2-0
30/09/22HPOR Vs Glenavon FC1-1
23/09/22ADungannon Swifts Vs POR2-0
17/09/22HPOR Vs Larne0-1
03/09/22HPOR Vs Cliftonville FC1-2

LarneLarne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22HLAR Vs Dungannon Swifts4-0
04/11/22HLAR Vs Crusaders FC4-1
28/10/22AGlentoran Vs LAR4-0
22/10/22ALinfield Vs LAR2-4
14/10/22HLAR Vs Cliftonville FC4-0
07/10/22ANewry City AFC Vs LAR0-2
01/10/22HLAR Vs Coleraine FC2-0
23/09/22ACarrick Rangers Vs LAR0-1
17/09/22APortadown Vs LAR0-1
02/09/22ACrusaders FC Vs LAR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Portadown
Portadown
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.07
HomeLLDLL0.14
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals2.792.573.00
Over 1.5 %93%86%100%
Over 2.5 %57%57%57%
Over 3.5 %29%14%43%
Scored0.290.430.14
Conceded2.502.142.86
BTTS29%43%14%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW2.20
HomeWWWWW2.29
AwayWWWWL2.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%71%62%
AVG goals2.532.712.38
Over 1.5 %67%71%62%
Over 2.5 %47%57%38%
Over 3.5 %33%43%25%
Scored1.872.431.38
Conceded0.670.291.00
BTTS27%14%38%
Clean Sheet60%71%50%
Corners9.009.00-
Cards2.002.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
6422+42
2.3
68%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.70.6
-
2GlentoranGlentoran4080
62%
2.0
8428+56
2.8
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
3LinfieldLinfield3877
61%
2.0
7527+48
2.7
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.00.7
-
4Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4071
52%
1.8
6856+12
3.1
80%
68%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.71.4
-
5Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3867
50%
1.8
7245+27
3.1
84%
66%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.2
-
6Coleraine FCColeraine FC3962
46%
1.6
6041+19
2.6
74%
51%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.1
-
7Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3952
36%
1.3
5866-8
3.2
77%
64%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.7
-
8Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3840
32%
1.1
4574-29
3.1
76%
55%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.9
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
29%
1.0
3755-18
2.4
68%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.4
-
10Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4033
25%
0.8
3186-55
2.9
85%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0110.82.1
-
11Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3827
21%
0.7
3574-39
2.9
79%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
12PortadownPortadown3826
18%
0.7
3286-54
3.1
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.82.3
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
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Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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