Portadown’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only an average of one goal per match against stronger opposition, yet their attack lags with just 1.33 goals a game. Larne, on the other hand, has been prolific away, scoring over two goals per match while keeping a respectable 0.86 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s pick is an away win, with a 55% probability, followed by a 29% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of a home victory. The expected total goals sit at 2.1, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1 for Larne, with a 15.9% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (96.8%), Away +2 handicap (95.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.9%) and Under 4.5 (93.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Portadown win
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne win
59.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Portadown
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
0.69
1.31
1.29
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
2.00
1.00
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.60
0.58
1.33
1.46
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
1.60
1.20
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.65
1.00
0.90
1.29
0.29
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.3%
Under 2.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
16.1%
0-2
13.6%
1-1
12.1%
0-0
11.9%
1-2
8.7%
0-3
7.1%
1-0
5.8%
1-3
4.6%
Portadown goals ↓
Larne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
16%
14%
7.1%
2.8%
1
5.8%
12%
8.7%
4.6%
1.8%
2
2.2%
3.5%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
3
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portadown goals (down), columns = Larne goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Portadown is 1.03 points worse than Larne in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Portadown is 0.76 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Portadown is 1.05 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 0.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Portadown or Draw
40.9%
Avg Implied -
14%
27%
59%
covers Portadown + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Portadown or Larne
72.9%
Avg Implied -
14%
27%
59%
covers Portadown + Larne
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Larne
86.2%
Avg Implied -
14%
27%
59%
covers Draw + Larne
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Portadown over/under 0.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Portadown, so a minus line means Portadown give that many goals of a start and Larne receive them. At -1, Portadown must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Portadown win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Portadown)
Portadown -2
0.7%
Draw -2
3.1%
Larne +2
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Portadown)
Portadown -1
3.8%
Draw -1
10.0%
Larne +1
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Portadown)
Portadown +1
40.9%
Draw +1
26.3%
Larne -1
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Portadown)
Portadown +2
67.3%
Draw +2
18.7%
Larne -2
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portadown
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.46
0.62
0.47
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.76
0.33
0.58
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.43
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.64
1.75
0.75
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.9%
Under 0.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.1%
Under 1.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portadown over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.6%
Under
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portadown
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.23
0.69
0.82
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.84
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.36
1.75
0.50
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.6%
Under 1.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
Under 2.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portadown over/under 0.5 2H
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Portadown's squad is €2m less valuable than Larne's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Portadown and Larne have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Portadown and Larne have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Portadown and Larne have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →