The match between Portadown and Limavady United feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities both sit at 31% and 38% respectively, while a draw also carries a 31% chance. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modest scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. Portadown, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.58 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, whereas Limavady United, playing away, averages 2.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 4.5 (91.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.6%), and Away under 2.5 goals (87.6%). Both sides have recently endured four straight defeats, with Portadown losing 0-3 to Coleraine FC and Limavady United 0-2 to Linfield, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Portadown win
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Limavady United win
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Portadown
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
0.69
1.31
1.29
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
2.00
1.00
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.60
0.58
1.33
1.46
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Limavady United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.03
1.64
1.14
1.94
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.08
0.60
1.20
1.57
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.92
1.00
1.00
0.80
2.57
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.00
3.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.7%
Portadown goals ↓
Limavady United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.6%
3.1%
1.0%
1
9.5%
15%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.7%
7.0%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.0%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portadown goals (down), columns = Limavady United goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Portadown is 0.19 points better than Limavady United in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 0.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Portadown is 0.13 goals better than Limavady United in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Portadown is 0.49 goals better than Limavady United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 2.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Portadown or Draw
61.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Portadown + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Portadown or Limavady United
69.0%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Portadown + Limavady United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Limavady United
69.6%
Avg Implied -
30%
31%
39%
covers Draw + Limavady United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Portadown over/under 0.5
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 0.5
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5
Over
34.6%
Under
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Portadown, so a minus line means Portadown give that many goals of a start and Limavady United receive them. At -1, Portadown must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Portadown win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Portadown)
Portadown -2
3.6%
Draw -2
8.6%
Limavady United +2
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Portadown)
Portadown -1
12.2%
Draw -1
18.2%
Limavady United +1
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Portadown)
Portadown +1
61.4%
Draw +1
21.2%
Limavady United -1
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Portadown)
Portadown +2
82.6%
Draw +2
11.5%
Limavady United -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portadown
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.46
0.62
0.47
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.76
0.33
0.58
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Limavady United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
0.20
0.60
1.43
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portadown over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portadown
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.23
0.69
0.82
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.84
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Limavady United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.58
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.42
0.80
0.20
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portadown over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Portadown's squad is €1m more valuable than Limavady United's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Portadown and Limavady United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Portadown and Limavady United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Portadown and Limavady United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Bangor