This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.21
0.93
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (16)
1.06
1.81
1.29
1.14
0.89
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.07
1.14
0.71
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.9%
Under 2.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
4.9%
Portimonense goals ↓
Chaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.5%
10%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.6%
7.1%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.5%
3.8%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portimonense goals (down), columns = Chaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Portimonense is 0.26 points worse than Chaves in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Portimonense is 0.15 goals better than Chaves in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Portimonense is 0.15 goals worse than Chaves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Portimonense
For 4.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 13.2 · Total 28.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
For 6.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 16.5 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portimonense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
9.9
10.2
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
28.4
28.8
28.0
vs Stronger (5)
10.0
-
10.0
3.6
-
3.6
28.8
-
28.8
vs Similar (8)
9.9
10.2
9.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
28.1
28.8
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
67%
57%
62%
67%
57%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
38%
33%
43%
38%
33%
43%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
12.3
11.7
12.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
30.5
28.3
32.3
vs Stronger (25)
12.9
11.5
13.4
0.9
0.5
1.2
29.6
28.5
30.0
vs Similar (22)
11.7
11.8
11.5
1.6
1.8
1.3
31.5
28.2
38.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
67%
71%
19%
17%
21%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
31%
33%
29%
81%
83%
79%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Chaves
12.3
Benfica
12.1
Feirense
11.8
Guimaraes
11.2
Estoril
11.1
FC Porto
10.5
SC Braga
10.5
Pacos Ferreira
10.5
Sporting CP
10.2
Boavista
10.2
Moreirense
9.9
Maritimo
9.9
Portimonense
9.9
Belenenses
9.8
Setubal
9.5
Rio Ave
8.6
Tondela
8.6
Aves
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
Feirense
5.5
FC Porto
5.4
Rio Ave
5.4
Setubal
5.3
Estoril
5.1
Tondela
5.1
Guimaraes
5.1
Belenenses
4.8
Aves
4.7
SC Braga
4.7
Sporting CP
4.6
Maritimo
4.5
Moreirense
4.5
Chaves
4.4
Boavista
4.3
Benfica
4.1
Portimonense
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Belenenses
34.9
Feirense
33.6
Sporting CP
33.3
Guimaraes
32.8
Setubal
32.8
Maritimo
32.6
Rio Ave
32.5
SC Braga
32.2
Tondela
31.9
Moreirense
31.4
Estoril
31.4
Aves
30.9
Benfica
30.9
Chaves
30.5
Pacos Ferreira
30.1
Boavista
29.9
FC Porto
28.7
Portimonense
28.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
67.2%
Under 9.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.3%
Under 3.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.3%
Under 21.5
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portimonense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.77
1.17
0.67
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.62
1.17
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.57
0.43
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.75
0.43
0.43
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.43
0.71
0.43
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portimonense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
1.00
1.17
0.67
0.29
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
-
-
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.64
0.50
0.50
1.19
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
1.06
0.86
0.71
0.56
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.64
0.43
0.29
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Portimonense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sarará50%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Mesaque Dju25%
Welat Cagro20%
João Reis14%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Douglas Grolli50%
Sarará50%
Sébastien Cibois40%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Xavier33%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Samuel Lobato29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Welat Cagro20%
Heitor17%
Samy17%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Marlon Junior14%
Welinton Junior0%
João Reis0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thauan Lara67%
Douglas Grolli25%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
João Reis0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Sarará0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Tiago Ferreira29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Samy17%
João Reis14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Sarará0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Samuel Lobato0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Chaves · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jorge Delgado20%
David Kusso20%
Reinaldo18%
Pedro Pinho18%
André Rodrigues17%
Robyn Esajas14%
Aarón Romero12%
Tiago Simões11%
Roberto9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Pinho36%
Ricardo Alves33%
Paulo Victor33%
Bruno Rodrigues31%
Zach Muscat29%
Robyn Esajas29%
Reinaldo27%
Wellington Carvalho22%
David Kusso20%
Marko Gudžulić17%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
Roberto9%
Ktatau8%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reinaldo18%
Robyn Esajas14%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
David Kusso10%
Roberto9%
Pedro Pinho9%
Carraça8%
Bruno Rodrigues8%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo27%
Roberto27%
Jorge Delgado20%
André Rodrigues17%
Aarón Romero12%
Wellington Carvalho11%
Pedro Pinho9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Robyn Esajas0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
David Kusso0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
Portimonense's squad is €3m less valuable than Chaves's (€6m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Portimonense and Chaves have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Portimonense's midfield is €1m less valuable than Chaves's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Portimonense's defence is €2m less valuable than Chaves's (€3m vs €4m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Maritimo
Boavista
Guimaraes
Tondela
Belenenses
Moreirense
Feirense
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril