Pythia gives Portsmouth a 32% win probability against Birmingham in the England: Championship on 2026-05-02, with 30% for the draw and 38% for Birmingham. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 2.5 cards (80%), Under 25.5 fouls (77%), Under 3.5 (77%), Under 5.5 cards (74%).
Results analysis
Portsmouth finished 1-1 against Birmingham (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 32% home win, 30% draw and 38% away win. Picks that landed: Over 2.5 cards (80%), Under 3.5 (77%), Under 5.5 cards (74%), Over 1.5 (71%), Over 19.5 fouls (70%). Missed: Under 25.5 fouls (77%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Portsmouth win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.49
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.56
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birmingham win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied 47.0% · @ 1.99
Edge
-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Portsmouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.43
1.29
0.93
1.12
1.88
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (27)
1.19
1.33
1.23
1.00
1.14
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.50
1.00
0.86
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.15
1.33
1.47
1.07
0.75
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.0%
@ 1.76-8.9%
Under 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.98+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.2%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
10.0%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.8%
Portsmouth goals ↓
Birmingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10.0%
7.3%
3.1%
1.0%
1
8.7%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.8%
7.4%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.2%
2.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portsmouth goals (down), columns = Birmingham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Coventry
2.07
Ipswich
1.83
Southampton
1.75
Millwall
1.75
Middlesbrough
1.65
Hull
1.63
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Swansea
1.39
Birmingham
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Preston
1.30
Sheffield United
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Portsmouth
1.20
Stoke
1.20
Charlton
1.15
West Brom
1.15
Leicester
1.13
Blackburn
1.13
Oxford
1.02
Sheffield Weds
0.39
Portsmouth is 0.20 points worse than Birmingham in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coventry
2.11
Southampton
1.75
Ipswich
1.74
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Hull
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Leicester
1.26
Swansea
1.24
Birmingham
1.24
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Oxford
0.98
Charlton
0.96
Blackburn
0.91
Sheffield Weds
0.63
Portsmouth is 0.17 goals worse than Birmingham in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Coventry
0.98
Middlesbrough
1.02
Ipswich
1.02
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Norwich
1.22
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Stoke
1.22
Charlton
1.26
West Brom
1.26
Oxford
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Bristol City
1.28
Derby
1.28
Hull
1.35
Preston
1.35
Portsmouth
1.39
Watford
1.41
Wrexham
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
Leicester
1.48
QPR
1.59
Sheffield Weds
1.93
Portsmouth is 0.17 goals worse than Birmingham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Ipswich
56%
Coventry
55%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Leicester
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Hull
45%
Sheffield Weds
45%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Oxford
40%
Portsmouth is 3.3 percentage points worse than Birmingham in terms of average possession (50% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Portsmouth
For 5.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Birmingham
For 5.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 9.3 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portsmouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.7
4.1
4.6
3.6
22.0
22.4
21.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
11.3
10.3
2.8
4.0
1.7
18.3
17.7
19.0
vs Similar (44)
10.5
10.3
10.8
4.3
4.6
3.9
22.5
23.1
21.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
60%
64%
50%
60%
40%
58%
64%
52%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
50%
40%
60%
42%
36%
48%
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.5
8.8
3.7
4.2
3.2
22.2
22.1
22.3
vs Stronger (4)
8.5
7.0
10.0
2.8
3.5
2.0
25.2
29.5
21.0
vs Similar (39)
9.8
10.6
8.9
3.9
4.3
3.5
21.6
21.5
21.7
vs Weaker (7)
9.4
13.5
7.8
3.0
3.5
2.8
24.0
20.5
25.4
% over line
46%
58%
35%
44%
54%
35%
50%
42%
58%
% under line
54%
42%
65%
56%
46%
65%
50%
58%
42%
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Middlesbrough
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Oxford
10.7
Preston
10.7
Southampton
10.7
Hull
10.7
Leicester
10.6
Portsmouth
10.6
Norwich
10.5
Stoke
10.4
Sheffield Weds
10.4
Blackburn
10.3
Watford
10.1
QPR
10.0
Wrexham
9.9
Coventry
9.9
Derby
9.9
Swansea
9.7
Bristol City
9.7
Birmingham
9.6
Ipswich
9.5
Charlton
9.4
West Brom
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.7
Ipswich
4.4
Hull
4.2
Derby
4.1
Swansea
4.1
Portsmouth
4.1
Norwich
3.9
Stoke
3.9
Sheffield United
3.9
Blackburn
3.8
Middlesbrough
3.8
Southampton
3.8
Charlton
3.8
Bristol City
3.8
Coventry
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Leicester
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Oxford
3.5
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.2
Swansea
23.2
Derby
23.0
Southampton
22.4
Leicester
22.3
Birmingham
22.2
Middlesbrough
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Portsmouth
22.0
Charlton
21.8
Oxford
21.8
Hull
21.7
Sheffield United
21.6
Millwall
21.5
Watford
21.4
West Brom
21.4
Norwich
21.4
Blackburn
21.2
QPR
21.0
Bristol City
20.9
Coventry
20.9
Stoke
20.6
Preston
19.8
Wrexham
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.0%
Under 3.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.6%
Under 21.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.50
0.36
0.31
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.37
0.52
0.38
0.38
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
1.00
0.50
0.29
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.78
1.07
0.53
0.25
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.79
0.57
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.81
0.85
0.62
0.79
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birmingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.56
0.40
0.53
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (30)
€213m
COV (27)
€202m
SOU (32)
€195m
MID (31)
€152m
SHU (33)
€121m
LEI (28)
€118m
NOR (35)
€103m
BIR (29)
€101m
HUL (28)
€99m
MIL (32)
€99m
WAT (27)
€90m
SWA (28)
€89m
STK (27)
€79m
WRE (30)
€76m
BRC (27)
€72m
QPR (31)
€69m
WBA (25)
€60m
DER (28)
€55m
PRE (28)
€54m
BLB (30)
€40m
POR (34)
€35m
CHA (31)
€28m
OXF (36)
€28m
SHW (24)
€15m
Portsmouth's squad is €66m less valuable than Birmingham's (€35m vs €101m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (9)
€94m
COV (8)
€75m
SOU (10)
€68m
MID (11)
€58m
SWA (12)
€53m
NOR (11)
€48m
BIR (10)
€47m
LEI (9)
€46m
HUL (10)
€44m
STK (11)
€42m
WAT (8)
€30m
MIL (9)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
BRC (9)
€28m
SHU (10)
€27m
PRE (9)
€25m
DER (7)
€22m
WBA (10)
€21m
BLB (9)
€16m
CHA (12)
€15m
POR (12)
€14m
WRE (8)
€14m
OXF (15)
€12m
SHW (5)
€3m
Portsmouth's attack is €32m less valuable than Birmingham's (€14m vs €47m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SOU (7)
€55m
MID (7)
€54m
COV (7)
€53m
IPS (7)
€51m
SHU (9)
€43m
WAT (8)
€36m
MIL (9)
€34m
LEI (6)
€28m
NOR (10)
€23m
WRE (9)
€21m
HUL (7)
€20m
BRC (7)
€19m
WBA (4)
€18m
BIR (5)
€18m
QPR (6)
€16m
DER (8)
€16m
SWA (5)
€12m
BLB (9)
€10m
STK (5)
€7m
PRE (6)
€5m
OXF (4)
€5m
POR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€4m
SHW (7)
€3m
Portsmouth's midfield is €13m less valuable than Birmingham's (€5m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COV (12)
€74m
SOU (15)
€71m
IPS (14)
€68m
SHU (14)
€51m
LEI (13)
€45m
WRE (13)
€41m
MID (13)
€40m
BIR (14)
€37m
MIL (14)
€36m
HUL (11)
€35m
NOR (14)
€32m
STK (11)
€29m
QPR (14)
€24m
SWA (11)
€24m
BRC (11)
€24m
PRE (13)
€24m
WAT (11)
€24m
WBA (11)
€22m
DER (13)
€18m
POR (17)
€16m
BLB (12)
€14m
OXF (17)
€12m
CHA (14)
€10m
SHW (12)
€8m
Portsmouth's defence is €21m less valuable than Birmingham's (€16m vs €37m).
England: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Coventry
Ipswich
Southampton
Millwall
Middlesbrough
Hull
Wrexham
Derby
Norwich
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield United
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford
Sheffield Weds