The contest between Portsmouth and Cardiff is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage is only 35% against a 38% chance of Cardiff triumphing, while a draw sits at 27%. The expected average of goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% chance, and it is the only scoreline to be mentioned.
Portsmouth, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded. Cardiff, on the road, nets 1.8 on average but also concedes 1.9 to comparable opposition.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals98.5% (edge 6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals97.6% (edge 6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals97.2% (edge 6%), Under 6.5 at 96.8% (edge 1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals95.9% (edge 6%), Home under 3.5 goals94.1% (edge 3%), and Away under 3.5 goals93.3%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Portsmouth win
36.3%
Avg Implied 40.0% · @ 2.34
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.41
1xBet
2.40
Dafabet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.42
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Betano
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
Cardiff win
36.8%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.88
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.05
Dafabet
3.00
10Bet
2.98
Unibet
2.95
Bet365
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Portsmouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.67
1.07
1.36
1.38
1.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.33
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.44
1.00
1.25
1.46
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.27
1.87
1.00
2.13
1.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.48
1.40
1.00
1.73
1.91
vs Weaker (8)
3.25
0.75
3.25
1.00
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.2%
@ 1.23+4.7%
Under 1.5
19.8%
@ 3.81-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.20
Unibet
3.95
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.2%
@ 1.79+3.4%
Under 2.5
43.8%
@ 2.00-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.8%
@ 2.91+1.7%
Under 3.5
66.2%
@ 1.38-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Both teams to score
Yes
60.4%
@ 1.62+3.2%
No
39.6%
@ 2.17-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Betfair
1.65
No
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
William Hil
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.19+5.3%
1-2
8.4%@ 9.66+3.8%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.64+3.2%
0-1
6.7%@ 9.53+2.0%
1-0
6.6%@ 8.50+1.4%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.00+2.4%
2-2
6.2%@ 11.69+2.3%
0-2
5.8%@ 14.22+2.6%
Portsmouth goals ↓
Cardiff goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.7%
5.8%
2.8%
1.0%
1
6.6%
13%
8.4%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.4%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.8%
4.1%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portsmouth goals (down), columns = Cardiff goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Portsmouth is 0.10 points worse than Cardiff in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Portsmouth is 0.16 goals worse than Cardiff in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Portsmouth is 0.03 goals worse than Cardiff in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Portsmouth
For 5.1 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cardiff
For 6.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.1 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portsmouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.9
10.8
3.8
4.0
3.6
22.2
22.4
22.0
vs Stronger (8)
11.1
12.0
10.2
2.9
3.8
2.0
20.8
19.5
22.0
vs Similar (42)
10.8
10.7
10.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
22.5
23.0
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
72%
68%
46%
52%
40%
58%
64%
52%
% under line
30%
28%
32%
54%
48%
60%
42%
36%
48%
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.0
10.7
3.4
3.3
3.4
20.6
20.2
21.0
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
14.0
13.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.0
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (33)
11.2
11.7
10.8
3.5
3.5
3.6
20.8
20.4
21.2
vs Weaker (14)
9.3
8.9
9.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
20.3
20.4
20.2
% over line
63%
64%
62%
46%
48%
44%
39%
40%
38%
% under line
37%
36%
38%
54%
52%
56%
61%
60%
62%
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.7%
@ 1.46+1.6%
Under 9.5
35.3%
@ 2.50-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.51
Unibet
2.33
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.7%
@ 2.00+7.3%
Under 3.5
46.3%
@ 1.73-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
51.0%
Under 21.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Portsmouth or Draw
63.2%
Avg Implied 67.3% · @ 1.39
Edge
-4.1%
36%
27%
37%
covers Portsmouth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Portsmouth or Cardiff
73.1%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.2%
36%
27%
37%
covers Portsmouth + Cardiff
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Draw or Cardiff
63.7%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.57
Edge
+3.9%
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Cardiff
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.60
William Hil
1.57
1xBet
1.54
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
@ 1.21+0.5%
Under
23.2%
@ 3.93-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.15
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Portsmouth over/under 1.5
Over
43.0%
@ 2.13-1.0%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.67+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Portsmouth over/under 2.5
Over
18.2%
@ 4.66-1.7%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.16+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
BetVictor
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Portsmouth over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
@ 10.33-3.0%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
Cardiff over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
@ 1.28+4.4%
Under
22.9%
@ 3.40-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.81
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Cardiff over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
@ 2.41+4.5%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.52-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.55
BetVictor
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.50
Cardiff over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
@ 5.68+2.1%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.10-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Cardiff over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
@ 13.75-0.7%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.02+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Portsmouth, so a minus line means Portsmouth give that many goals of a start and Cardiff receive them. At -1, Portsmouth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Portsmouth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Portsmouth)
Portsmouth -2
6.7%
@ 9.28-2.8%
Draw -2
11.0%
@ 6.21-3.2%
Cardiff +2
82.3%
@ 1.16+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.40
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Portsmouth)
Portsmouth -1
17.7%
@ 4.37-2.9%
Draw -1
18.6%
@ 4.10-3.4%
Cardiff +1
63.7%
@ 1.57+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Away
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Portsmouth)
Portsmouth +1
63.2%
@ 1.39-1.6%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 4.56-1.0%
Cardiff -1
18.0%
@ 5.80+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.70
Betfair
5.50
Handicap +2 (Portsmouth)
Portsmouth +2
82.0%
@ 1.10-0.1%
Draw +2
11.2%
@ 8.00-0.1%
Cardiff -2
6.9%
@ 13.62+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.57
0.71
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.68
0.42
0.67
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.00
0.53
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.81
0.90
0.50
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.38
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.4%
@ 1.34-2.1%
Under 0.5
32.6%
@ 3.05+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
William Hil
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
1xBet
3.02
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.6%
@ 2.59-5.3%
Under 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.45+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
Under
William Hil
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 6.37-4.2%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.09+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Betano
6.30
Marathonbet
6.25
Under
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.5%
@ 1.93-1.8%
Under
53.5%
@ 1.80+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
@ 5.84-4.0%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.10+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Betano
5.50
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 11.50-6.0%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Cardiff over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.5%
@ 2.09-2.1%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.68+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Cardiff over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 6.59-4.1%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.08+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
Betano
6.60
Unibet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Under
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Cardiff over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 12.50-5.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.50
0.64
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.76
0.58
0.58
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
0.87
0.47
1.20
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.38
1.75
0.50
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.8%
@ 1.20-0.7%
Under 0.5
23.2%
@ 4.12+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 1.98-5.8%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.76+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 4.08-5.0%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.20+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.00
Betano
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Under
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.5%
@ 1.63-3.5%
Under
46.5%
@ 2.15+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.9%
@ 4.01-5.2%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.20+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
@ 9.00-6.3%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Cardiff over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.3%
@ 1.74-4.0%
Under
50.7%
@ 1.99+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.69
Under
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.93
Cardiff over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.5%
@ 4.85-4.5%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.14+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.75
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Cardiff over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 10.50-6.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 6.5
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.7%
Under 5.5
92.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
BetVictor
1.02
+1.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.08
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+4.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+4.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.14
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.11
-
+4.5%
Under 4.5
82.6%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-0.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+5.0%
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+6.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
-
+5.2%
Home +2 handicap
82.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-
-0.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
+1.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-2.1%
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
+4.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.27
+4.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
+0.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.8%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.18
-0.7%
Over 8.5 corners
75.8%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
-
-
+2.7%
Over 2.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
1.29
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+0.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Portsmouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Segecic40%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen25%
Ebou Adams20%
Terry Devlin20%
M. Milovanović20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ebou Adams20%
R. Shein20%
Terry Devlin20%
A. Segecic20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Kamara25%
Ebou Adams20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Segecic0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Segecic80%
A. Kamara25%
Colby Bishop20%
N. Schmid0%
Ebou Adams0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Cardiff
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yousef Salech50%
Jack Moylan33%
Cian Ashford33%
Rubin Colwill20%
Perry Ng17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Perry Ng33%
Alex Robertson33%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Jack Moylan17%
Isaak Davies17%
Joel Colwill17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Joel Bagan0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Yousef Salech0%
Cian Ashford0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cian Ashford33%
Ronan Kpakio25%
Ollie Tanner20%
Rubin Colwill20%
Yousef Salech17%
Perry Ng0%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Jack Moylan0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yousef Salech67%
Jack Moylan33%
Perry Ng17%
Cian Ashford17%
Callum Robinson0%
Gabriel Osho0%
Chris Willock0%
David Turnbull0%
Nathan Trott0%
Ollie Tanner0%
Joel Bagan0%
Isaak Davies0%
Alex Robertson0%
Rubin Colwill0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Ronan Kpakio0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Portsmouth's squad is €3m more valuable than Cardiff's (€32m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Portsmouth's attack is €2m less valuable than Cardiff's (€13m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Portsmouth's midfield is €1m more valuable than Cardiff's (€5m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Portsmouth's defence is €4m more valuable than Cardiff's (€14m vs €10m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Norwich
Stoke
Burnley
Preston