This highly anticipated match between Považská Bystrica and Žlate Moravce in the Slovakia 2. liga is finely balanced, with both teams having a 37% chance of winning and a 26% chance of drawing. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome.
The expected number of goals in this match is 3.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.1%.
Považská Bystrica has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.08 goals and conceding 1.5 goals per match against similar opponents. Žlate Moravce, on the other hand, has been decent away from home, scoring 1.79 goals and conceding 1.86 goals per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 81.9% probability, and has a 7% edge.
The home team has a 37% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has a 81.9% probability and a 7% edge.
Results analysis
Považská Bystrica's win extends their run of form, having come off a win and now a victory over Zlaté Moravce. The final score of 2-1 reflected the model's prediction of a home win, which was correct given the pre-match probability of 37%. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite, and it paid off. The model's call was also correct, as the favourite landed. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 81.9%, providing a 7% edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Považská Bystrica win✓ Hit
36.7%
Avg Implied 40.0% · @ 2.27
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.50
Dafabet
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.35
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
10Bet
3.45
Betano
3.40
Zlaté Moravce win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.77
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.84
William Hil
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Považská Bystrica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.67
1.36
1.29
1.62
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.25
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.83
1.50
1.33
1.42
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlaté Moravce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zlaté Moravce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.63
1.79
1.50
2.44
1.75
vs Stronger (6)
3.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
3.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.92
1.71
1.64
1.36
2.15
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Považská Bystrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
@ 1.21+6.7%
Under 1.5
18.1%
@ 3.68-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.10
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.75+5.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
@ 1.97-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.79+3.5%
Under 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.36-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.78
Marathonbet
2.74
Under
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.3%
@ 1.59+4.9%
No
37.7%
@ 2.15-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.60
No
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.08+5.3%
1-2
8.4%@ 9.07+3.9%
2-1 ✓
8.4%@ 8.18+3.3%
2-2
6.4%@ 11.10+2.7%
0-1
6.1%@ 9.13+1.6%
1-0
6.1%@ 7.90+0.9%
0-0
5.8%@ 10.62+1.9%
0-2
5.5%@ 12.50+2.2%
Považská Bystrica goals ↓
Zlaté Moravce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
6.1%
5.5%
2.8%
1.1%
1
6.1%
12%
8.4%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.4%
6.4%
3.3%
1.2%
3
2.8%
4.2%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Považská Bystrica goals (down), columns = Zlaté Moravce goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petržalka
3.00
Šamorín
2.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Žilina II
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.33
Malženice
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Galanta
1.17
Humenné
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
Slovan Bratislava II
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.50
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.50
Považská Bystrica is 0.83 points better than Zlaté Moravce in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petržalka
2.67
Šamorín
2.17
Pohronie
2.00
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.83
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.67
Inter Bratislava
1.50
Tatran Prešov
1.50
Slovan Bratislava II
1.50
Žilina II
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.67
Humenné
0.67
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.67
Galanta
0.67
Považská Bystrica is 0.83 goals better than Zlaté Moravce in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petržalka
0.33
Šamorín
1.00
Žilina II
1.00
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
1.17
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.33
Humenné
1.50
Galanta
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Slovan Bratislava II
1.67
MFK Bytča
3.17
Považská Bystrica is 0.50 goals worse than Zlaté Moravce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Považská Bystrica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.79
0.36
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
0.33
0.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.71
0.83
0.25
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlaté Moravce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zlaté Moravce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.64
0.57
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.96
0.55
0.64
0.85
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Považská Bystrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Považská Bystrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Považská Bystrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Považská Bystrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlaté Moravce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlaté Moravce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlaté Moravce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Považská Bystrica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.57
0.93
0.75
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
1.12
0.67
1.08
0.92
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlaté Moravce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zlaté Moravce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.77
1.14
0.93
1.56
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
0.83
1.33
1.67
2.67
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
0.75
1.09
0.73
1.31
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Považská Bystrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Považská Bystrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Považská Bystrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Považská Bystrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlaté Moravce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlaté Moravce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlaté Moravce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.9%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
+6.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zlaté Moravce · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marek Kuzma31%
Jakub Švec29%
Roman Čerepkai25%
Adam Brenkus12%
Levan Nonikashvili9%
Iuri Tabatadze9%
Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava8%
Filip Balaj7%
Denis Duga7%
Karol Mondek6%
Matúš Čonka0%
Karol Mészáros0%
Andrija Balić0%
Vladimír Majdan0%
Matej Moško0%
Samuel Suľa0%
Milan Knobloch0%
Soufiane Dramé0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Miroslav Gono0%
Richard Nagy0%
Patrik Lukáč0%
Marek Švec0%
Patrik Richter0%
Samuel Hodúr0%
Patrik Dulay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miroslav Gono36%
Patrik Mijić33%
Denis Duga29%
Richard Nagy27%
Andrija Balić23%
Matej Moško20%
Adam Brenkus19%
Levan Nonikashvili18%
Samuel Suľa18%
Marek Kuzma15%
Filip Balaj14%
Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava8%
Vladimír Majdan7%
Karol Mondek6%
Matúš Čonka0%
Karol Mészáros0%
Jakub Švec0%
Milan Knobloch0%
Soufiane Dramé0%
Iuri Tabatadze0%
Roman Čerepkai0%
Patrik Lukáč0%
Marek Švec0%
Patrik Richter0%
Samuel Hodúr0%
Patrik Dulay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrik Dulay29%
Samuel Hodúr20%
Matúš Čonka17%
Karol Mondek12%
Karol Mészáros11%
Levan Nonikashvili9%
Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava8%
Miroslav Gono7%
Andrija Balić0%
Adam Brenkus0%
Vladimír Majdan0%
Matej Moško0%
Samuel Suľa0%
Filip Balaj0%
Marek Kuzma0%
Denis Duga0%
Jakub Švec0%
Milan Knobloch0%
Soufiane Dramé0%
Iuri Tabatadze0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Roman Čerepkai0%
Richard Nagy0%
Patrik Lukáč0%
Marek Švec0%
Patrik Richter0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adam Brenkus12%
Karol Mészáros11%
Karol Mondek6%
Matúš Čonka0%
Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava0%
Levan Nonikashvili0%
Andrija Balić0%
Vladimír Majdan0%
Matej Moško0%
Samuel Suľa0%
Filip Balaj0%
Marek Kuzma0%
Denis Duga0%
Jakub Švec0%
Milan Knobloch0%
Soufiane Dramé0%
Iuri Tabatadze0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Roman Čerepkai0%
Miroslav Gono0%
Richard Nagy0%
Patrik Lukáč0%
Marek Švec0%
Patrik Richter0%
Samuel Hodúr0%
Patrik Dulay0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (19)
€2m
PET (23)
€2m
ŠAM (22)
€2m
POH (17)
€1m
LZ (16)
€1m
ZM (14)
€1m
LM (14)
€1m
BLP (20)
€1m
PB (17)
€1m
ŽI (12)
€1m
IB (18)
€1m
SBI (18)
€1m
MAL (13)
€1m
HUM (4)
€0m
Považská Bystrica and Zlaté Moravce have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (7)
€1m
PET (10)
€1m
LM (8)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€0m
ŽI (4)
€0m
POH (4)
€0m
BLP (6)
€0m
IB (5)
€0m
PB (4)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ZM (3)
€0m
HUM (2)
€0m
SBI (4)
€0m
LZ (3)
€0m
Považská Bystrica and Zlaté Moravce have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŠAM (6)
€1m
LZ (3)
€0m
TP (4)
€0m
PB (6)
€0m
SBI (8)
€0m
PET (5)
€0m
POH (5)
€0m
ZM (4)
€0m
BLP (3)
€0m
IB (4)
€0m
LM (2)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Považská Bystrica and Zlaté Moravce have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (8)
€1m
ZM (7)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
POH (8)
€1m
LZ (10)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€1m
BLP (11)
€0m
ŽI (7)
€0m
PB (7)
€0m
IB (9)
€0m
MAL (7)
€0m
SBI (6)
€0m
LM (4)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Považská Bystrica and Zlaté Moravce have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovakia: 2. liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Petržalka
Šamorín
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Pohronie
Žilina II
Tatran Prešov
Liptovský Mikuláš
Inter Bratislava
Malženice
Galanta
Humenné
Slovan Bratislava II
Lokomotíva Zvolen
MFK Bytča