PythiaFootballBETA
Preston’s recent slump of two straight defeats sets the stage for a likely Southampton triumph, the model’s pick. The odds favour the Saints with a 45 % chance of victory, a 26 % chance of a draw and 28 % for a home win. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most probable total being two goals at 24 %. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12.4 % probability.
Home side Preston, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Southampton, on the road against a similar tier, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. These figures suggest the Saints’ attack should outpace the Saints’ defence, while Preston’s defence may struggle to keep the visitors at bay.
The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 84.8 %, Over 1.5 goals at 80.1 %, Under 5.5 cards at 78.3 %, Over 2.5 cards at 76.4 % and Under 23.5 fouls at 73.0 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every pick is listed with its chance.
Preston’s recent run of LLDLW, still rattled after two straight defeats, was a stark contrast to Southampton’s WLWWD, coming off a win. The model’s favourite, an Away win with a 45 % probability, proved right as Southampton edged 1-3. The expected total of 2.9 goals was close to the actual 4, but the most likely score of 1-1 did not materialise. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 25.5 fouls at 84.8 % hit, Over 1.5 at 80.1 % hit, Under 5.5 cards at 78.3 % hit, Over 2.5 cards at 76.4 % hit, and Under 23.5 fouls at 73.0 % hit. All figures are reported once, with probabilities expressed as percentages.
Preston| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 1.19 | 1.56 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.21 | 1.46 | 1.09 | 1.45 | 1.31 | 1.46 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Southampton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.73 | 0.73 | 1.87 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.73 | 1.04 | 1.71 | 0.71 | 1.75 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 3.00 | 1.50 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Southampton goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 12% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
PrestonSouthamptonPreston| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 19.9 | 19.4 | 20.4 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 11.0 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 18.3 | 17.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Similar (41) | 10.6 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 20.2 | 19.9 | 20.4 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 9.5 | 5.0 | 14.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 60% | 68% | 52% | 46% | 52% | 40% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| % under line | 40% | 32% | 48% | 54% | 48% | 60% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
Southampton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 22.6 | 22.9 | 22.2 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 11.7 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 19.3 | 20.0 | 19.0 |
| vs Similar (44) | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 22.8 | 23.0 | 22.6 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 11.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 22.3 | 24.0 | 21.5 |
| % over line | 64% | 75% | 54% | 60% | 54% | 65% | 54% | 50% | 58% |
| % under line | 36% | 25% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 35% | 46% | 50% | 42% |
Preston| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Southampton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Preston| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.91 | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Southampton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.19 | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 1.42 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | - | - | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 84.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 73.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 16/04/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 25/10/23 | H | 2-2 |
Preston| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 1-3 |
Southampton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Coventry | 46 | 95 | 61% | 2.1 | 97 | 45 | +52 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 37% | 9.6 | 41% | 3.7 | 48% | 20.8 | 43% | 202 | 75 | 53 | 74 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 2 |  Ipswich | 46 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 80 | 47 | +33 | 2.8 | 85% | 52% | 26% | 9.6 | 39% | 4.4 | 63% | 24.5 | 72% | 213 | 94 | 51 | 68 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 3 | Southampton | 48 | 84 | 48% | 1.8 | 84 | 57 | +27 | 2.9 | 85% | 62% | 33% | 10.7 | 62% | 4.1 | 62% | 22.8 | 58% | 195 | 68 | 55 | 71 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  Millwall | 48 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 64 | 51 | +13 | 2.4 | 79% | 46% | 21% | 11.1 | 56% | 3.6 | 46% | 21.0 | 35% | 99 | 30 | 34 | 36 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 49 | 81 | 45% | 1.7 | 73 | 50 | +23 | 2.5 | 67% | 53% | 29% | 11.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 55% | 21.8 | 49% | 152 | 58 | 54 | 40 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 59% |
| 6 |  Hull | 49 | 80 | 47% | 1.6 | 73 | 66 | +7 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 35% | 10.3 | 61% | 4.2 | 59% | 21.2 | 41% | 99 | 44 | 20 | 35 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 7 |  Wrexham | 46 | 71 | 41% | 1.5 | 69 | 65 | +4 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 50% | 3.4 | 50% | 19.2 | 30% | 76 | 14 | 21 | 41 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 8 |  Derby | 46 | 69 | 43% | 1.5 | 67 | 59 | +8 | 2.7 | 76% | 52% | 24% | 10.0 | 48% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.9 | 61% | 55 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 9 |  Norwich | 46 | 65 | 41% | 1.4 | 63 | 56 | +7 | 2.6 | 83% | 48% | 15% | 10.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 59% | 21.2 | 41% | 103 | 48 | 23 | 32 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 46 | 64 | 37% | 1.4 | 57 | 56 | +1 | 2.5 | 78% | 46% | 17% | 9.9 | 50% | 3.8 | 48% | 22.1 | 48% | 101 | 47 | 18 | 37 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 11 |  Swansea | 46 | 64 | 39% | 1.4 | 57 | 59 | -2 | 2.5 | 76% | 50% | 20% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.1 | 63% | 22.7 | 61% | 89 | 53 | 12 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 12 |  Bristol City | 46 | 62 | 37% | 1.3 | 59 | 59 | +0 | 2.6 | 72% | 46% | 26% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.8 | 57% | 21.3 | 48% | 72 | 28 | 19 | 24 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 13 |  Sheffield United | 46 | 60 | 39% | 1.3 | 66 | 66 | +0 | 2.9 | 74% | 59% | 33% | 11.7 | 70% | 4.1 | 57% | 21.5 | 43% | 121 | 27 | 43 | 51 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 60 | 33% | 1.3 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 2.5 | 80% | 48% | 24% | 10.8 | 59% | 3.4 | 48% | 19.9 | 28% | 54 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 15 |  QPR | 46 | 58 | 35% | 1.3 | 61 | 73 | -12 | 2.9 | 76% | 63% | 37% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.7 | 57% | 20.5 | 41% | 69 | 29 | 16 | 24 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 |  Watford | 46 | 57 | 30% | 1.2 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 2.6 | 80% | 48% | 24% | 10.2 | 57% | 4.5 | 57% | 21.2 | 41% | 90 | 30 | 36 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 17 |  Stoke | 46 | 55 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 2.3 | 70% | 43% | 20% | 10.8 | 59% | 4.0 | 43% | 20.3 | 39% | 79 | 42 | 7 | 29 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 46 | 55 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 64 | -15 | 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 24% | 10.7 | 65% | 4.0 | 50% | 21.8 | 57% | 35 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 19 |  West Brom | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 2.3 | 67% | 46% | 17% | 9.1 | 43% | 3.4 | 39% | 20.8 | 41% | 60 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 20 |  Charlton | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 2.2 | 67% | 39% | 15% | 9.7 | 48% | 3.6 | 48% | 21.6 | 48% | 28 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 21 |  Leicester | 46 | 52 | 26% | 1.1 | 58 | 68 | -10 | 2.7 | 85% | 54% | 28% | 11.1 | 63% | 3.6 | 41% | 21.7 | 50% | 118 | 46 | 28 | 45 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 22 |  Blackburn | 46 | 52 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 56 | -14 | 2.1 | 70% | 39% | 13% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.8 | 54% | 20.7 | 43% | 40 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 23 |  Oxford | 46 | 47 | 24% | 1.0 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 2.3 | 67% | 46% | 20% | 11.2 | 70% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.6 | 46% | 28 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 40% |
| 24 |  Sheffield Weds | 46 | 18 | 4% | 0.4 | 29 | 89 | -60 | 2.6 | 80% | 52% | 24% | 10.4 | 54% | 3.0 | 41% | 21.7 | 50% | 15 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 45% |