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Progres Niederkorn vs AS Jeunesse Esch Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 2-1
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
Vs
40%
28%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
Luxembourg: National Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This Luxembourg National Division clash between Progres Niederkorn and AS Jeunesse Esch is finely balanced, with Progres Niederkorn having just ended a 2-game winning run against Résidence Walferdange with a 1-0 victory. The model predicts a home win for Progres Niederkorn, with a 40% chance of success. The draw probability stands at 28%, while AS Jeunesse Esch has a 32% chance of taking the points. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's selection is a home win, with a most likely scoreline of 1-1, occurring with a probability of 13.2%. Progres Niederkorn has scored an average of 1.33 goals at home, while conceding 1.75. In contrast, AS Jeunesse Esch has scored 1 goal on average when playing away to stronger opponents, while keeping a clean sheet. The model suggests picking Over 21.5 fouls (79.4%), Over 1.5 goals (77.3% with a 5% edge), and Under 3.5 goals (70.2%). The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 32%.

Results analysis

The win extends Progres Niederkorn's run, as they secured a 2-1 victory over AS Jeunesse Esch. The final score confirmed the actual result, with the home team emerging victorious. The model correctly predicted a home win, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's selection of Home win was correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 77.3% probability, and Under 3.5 goals also hit, with a 70.2% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Progres Niederkorn win✓ Hit
40.2%
Avg Implied 42.8% · @ 2.12
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.20
Dafabet
2.17
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.22
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
AS Jeunesse Esch win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.11
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
1xBet
3.19
Pinnacle
3.19
Betano
3.10

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Progres NiederkornProgres Niederkorn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W22D02L11D22D10W01L23L12L24LA·US 15/03H·UN 22/03A·ATE04/04H·MAM12/04A·RAC18/04H·ROD26/04A·JEU03/05H·FC 08/05A·AS 17/05H·F9123/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.571.271.531.671.60
vs Stronger (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.671.671.671.671.671.67
vs Weaker (16)1.441.501.001.501.881.50
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AS Jeunesse EschAS Jeunesse Esch

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D23L01L11D11D21W11D03L21W20WA·FC 15/03H·US 22/03H·F9104/04A·US 12/04H·SWI19/04A·VIC26/04H·UNI03/05A·UNA10/05H·PRO17/05A·UN 23/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.131.201.071.131.20
vs Stronger (14)0.791.140.861.000.711.29
vs Similar (14)1.361.001.430.861.291.14
vs Weaker (2)2.502.002.003.003.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
@ 1.26+4.7%
Under 1.5
22.7%
@ 3.33-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.88+2.4%
Under 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.84-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
@ 3.06+0.0%
Under 3.5
70.2%
@ 1.30-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.08
Superbet
2.90
Under
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
@ 1.68+2.2%
No
43.1%
@ 2.03-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
10Bet
1.67
No
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.03+6.9%
2-1 ✓
8.8%@ 8.15+4.2%
1-0
8.1%@ 7.23+2.9%
1-2
7.7%@ 9.85+3.9%
0-0
7.6%@ 9.33+3.5%
0-1
7.0%@ 9.05+2.8%
2-0
6.8%@ 9.32+2.8%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.00+2.5%
Progres Niederkorn goals ↓
AS Jeunesse Esch goals →
01234
07.6%7.0%5.3%2.3%0.7%
18.1%13%7.7%3.3%1.1%
26.8%8.8%5.7%2.4%0.8%
33.3%4.3%2.8%1.2%0.4%
41.2%1.6%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Progres Niederkorn goals (down), columns = AS Jeunesse Esch goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.17
Atert Bissen
2.17
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.93
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.27
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.07
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Wiltz
1.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.94
US Rumelange
0.61
Progres Niederkorn is 0.20 points worse than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Atert Bissen
2.33
FC Differdange 03
2.10
F91 Dudelange
1.97
UNA Strassen
1.90
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.70
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.47
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
US Hostert
1.17
Victoria Rosport
1.10
Swift Hesperange
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.92
US Rumelange
0.59
Wiltz
0.00
Progres Niederkorn is 0.30 goals better than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Wiltz
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.80
UNA Strassen
0.87
Atert Bissen
0.90
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.13
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Swift Hesperange
1.53
Progres Niederkorn
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.60
Victoria Rosport
1.67
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
US Hostert
1.87
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.89
US Rumelange
2.94
Progres Niederkorn is 0.43 goals worse than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.13).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
F91 Dudelange
61%
Progres Niederkorn
60%
UNA Strassen
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
56%
FC Differdange 03
54%
US Hostert
53%
US Mondorf-les-bains
52%
Atert Bissen
51%
Swift Hesperange
48%
AS Jeunesse Esch
46%
UN Kaerjeng 97
41%
Victoria Rosport
40%
Progres Niederkorn is 14.2 percentage points better than AS Jeunesse Esch in terms of average possession (60% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Progres NiederkornProgres Niederkorn

For 5.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.5

🚩 Corners

110317535647811A·UNIH·VICA·SWIH·US
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

8026115241382564A·UNIH·VICA·SWIH·US A·F91
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.2

⚠️ Fouls

24013711121311111120232422A·UNIH·VICA·SWIH·US
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AS Jeunesse EschAS Jeunesse Esch

For 3.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 8.8

🚩 Corners

110363665699116H·RODA·RACH·MAMA·ATE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.2

🟨 Cards

100332346442651046H·RODA·RACH·MAMA·ATEH·UN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 29.0

⚠️ Fouls

320201012141513171530262832H·RODA·RACH·MAMA·ATE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Progres NiederkornProgres Niederkorn

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)7.59.06.00.50.30.722.222.522.0
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (21)7.711.06.01.10.51.922.022.022.0
vs Weaker (27)7.07.0-0.10.20.023.023.0-
% over line25%50%0%8%4%12%75%100%50%
% under line75%50%100%92%96%88%25%0%50%
This opponent (AS Jeunesse Esch) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AS Jeunesse EschAS Jeunesse Esch

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.810.07.50.60.90.429.029.029.0
vs Stronger (22)6.0-6.00.20.00.432.0-32.0
vs Similar (20)9.710.09.01.42.80.428.029.026.0
vs Weaker (8)---0.00.00.0---
% over line25%50%0%10%12%8%100%100%100%
% under line75%50%100%90%88%92%0%0%0%
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.2%
Under 9.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
87.1%
Under 3.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 3.5 cards87.1%--------
Over 21.5 fouls87.0%--------
Over 1.577.3%1.26
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
--+4.7%✓ Hit
Under 3.570.2%1.30
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
---0.0%✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
FD0 (16)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Progres Niederkorn vs AS Jeunesse Esch · H/A from PN
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26AAS Jeunesse Esch Vs PN2-1
06/12/25HPN Vs AS Jeunesse Esch0-2
09/02/25AAS Jeunesse Esch Vs PN3-1
11/08/24HPN Vs AS Jeunesse Esch3-0
26/05/24HPN Vs AS Jeunesse Esch1-3
06/08/23AAS Jeunesse Esch Vs PN1-3
12/03/23AAS Jeunesse Esch Vs PN0-1
11/09/22HPN Vs AS Jeunesse Esch2-1

Progres NiederkornProgres Niederkorn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26HPN Vs F91 Dudelange2-4
17/05/26AAS Jeunesse Esch Vs PN2-1
08/05/26HPN Vs FC Differdange 032-3
03/05/26AJeunesse Canach Vs PN1-0
26/04/26HPN Vs Rodange 911-0
18/04/26ARacing FC Union Luxembourg Vs PN2-2
12/04/26HPN Vs Mamer1-1
04/04/26AAtert Bissen Vs PN2-0
22/03/26HPN Vs UN Kaerjeng 972-2
15/03/26AUS Hostert Vs PN1-5

AS Jeunesse EschAS Jeunesse Esch

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AUN Kaerjeng 97 Vs AJE0-2
17/05/26HAJE Vs Progres Niederkorn2-1
10/05/26AUNA Strassen Vs AJE3-0
03/05/26HAJE Vs Union Titus Petange1-1
26/04/26AVictoria Rosport Vs AJE1-2
19/04/26HAJE Vs Swift Hesperange1-1
12/04/26AUS Mondorf-les-bains Vs AJE1-1
04/04/26HAJE Vs F91 Dudelange0-1
22/03/26HAJE Vs US Hostert2-3
15/03/26AFC Differdange 03 Vs AJE1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
Luxembourg: National Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.34
HomeDDWLL1.42
AwayWLDLL1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%33%
AVG goals2.862.852.88
Over 1.5 %74%73%75%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %32%31%33%
Scored1.501.501.50
Conceded1.361.351.38
BTTS64%65%62%
Clean Sheet16%15%17%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards5.004.005.67
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
Luxembourg: National Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.38
HomeLLDDW1.56
AwayDDWLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.662.922.40
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %40%44%36%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.301.640.96
Conceded1.361.281.44
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners8.7510.007.50
Cards6.207.334.50

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Racing FC Union LuxembourgRacing FC Union Luxembourg39
100%
3.0
111+10
4.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1013.70.3
56%
2UNA StrassenUNA Strassen39
100%
3.0
70+7
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.0
57%
3Progres NiederkornProgres Niederkorn39
100%
3.0
71+6
2.7
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.3
60%
4US Mondorf-les-bainsUS Mondorf-les-bains39
100%
3.0
74+3
3.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
52%
5FC Differdange 03FC Differdange 0336
67%
2.0
64+2
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.3
54%
6Résidence WalferdangeRésidence Walferdange36
67%
2.0
54+1
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
7US RumelangeUS Rumelange36
67%
2.0
44+0
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
8Atert BissenAtert Bissen36
67%
2.0
44+0
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
51%
9WiltzWiltz34
33%
1.3
95+4
4.7
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.01.7
-
10US HostertUS Hostert33
33%
1.0
98+1
5.7
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.02.7
53%
11UN Kaerjeng 97UN Kaerjeng 9733
33%
1.0
69-3
5.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
41%
12Etzella EttelbruckEtzella Ettelbruck31
0%
0.3
27-5
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.3
-
13AS Jeunesse EschAS Jeunesse Esch30
0%
0.0
15-4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.7
46%
14F91 DudelangeF91 Dudelange30
0%
0.0
05-5
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.01.7
61%
15Victoria RosportVictoria Rosport30
0%
0.0
410-6
4.7
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.3
40%
16Swift HesperangeSwift Hesperange30
0%
0.0
213-11
5.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.74.3
48%
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →

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