The match between Progres Niederkorn and Racing FC Union Luxembourg feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away victory are close behind. The expected total of goals sits at 3.1, yet the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 1-1 scoreline the single most probable outcome at 12.1 %. Progres, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, while Racing, on the road, has a stronger offensive output of 2.4 goals per match and concedes 1.5. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Over 2.5 cards (97.1 %), Under 6.5 (96.3 %), Over 19.5 fouls (93.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.8 %), Over 3.5 cards (91.9 %) and Under 5.5 (91.0 %). Home win probability is 38 %, draw 26 %, and away win 36 %. Both teams have recently come off defeats, with Progres losing 0-1 to UNA Strassen and Racing losing 0-3 to FC Differdange 03.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Progres Niederkorn win
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg win
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Progres Niederkorn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.37
1.43
1.64
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.45
1.44
1.78
1.09
1.18
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
1.20
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.63
2.14
1.43
1.69
1.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
3.33
0.00
3.50
0.25
3.25
vs Similar (22)
2.45
1.27
2.50
1.08
2.40
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.4%
No
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
0-0
5.8%
0-2
5.6%
Progres Niederkorn goals ↓
Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
6.2%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.0%
12%
8.5%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.3%
6.4%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.7%
4.2%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Progres Niederkorn goals (down), columns = Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Progres Niederkorn is 0.20 points worse than Racing FC Union Luxembourg in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Progres Niederkorn is 1.00 goals worse than Racing FC Union Luxembourg in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Progres Niederkorn is 0.40 goals better than Racing FC Union Luxembourg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Progres Niederkorn
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Progres Niederkorn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
9.0
6.0
0.5
0.3
0.6
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
7.7
11.0
6.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
vs Weaker (19)
7.0
7.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
8%
4%
11%
75%
100%
50%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
92%
96%
89%
25%
0%
50%
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
7.5
-
0.7
0.5
0.9
26.5
26.5
-
vs Stronger (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
7.5
7.5
-
0.9
0.5
1.4
26.5
26.5
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
8%
8%
8%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
92%
92%
92%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.6%
Under 9.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
91.9%
Under 3.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.3%
Under 21.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Progres Niederkorn or Draw
62.3%
Avg Implied -
36%
26%
38%
covers Progres Niederkorn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
73.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
26%
38%
covers Progres Niederkorn + Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
64.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
26%
38%
covers Draw + Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Progres Niederkorn, so a minus line means Progres Niederkorn give that many goals of a start and Racing FC Union Luxembourg receive them. At -1, Progres Niederkorn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Progres Niederkorn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Progres Niederkorn)
Progres Niederkorn -2
6.9%
Draw -2
11.0%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg +2
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Progres Niederkorn)
Progres Niederkorn -1
17.8%
Draw -1
18.2%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg +1
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Progres Niederkorn)
Progres Niederkorn +1
62.3%
Draw +1
18.7%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg -1
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Progres Niederkorn)
Progres Niederkorn +2
81.0%
Draw +2
11.5%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg -2
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Progres Niederkorn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.30
0.67
0.44
0.36
0.18
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.00
0.79
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.45
1.17
0.50
1.30
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Progres Niederkorn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.86
1.14
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.15
0.78
1.33
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing FC Union Luxembourg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.97
1.14
0.64
0.81
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.83
0.00
1.00
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.82
1.33
0.58
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 5.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Progres Niederkorn and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Progres Niederkorn and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Progres Niederkorn and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Progres Niederkorn and Racing FC Union Luxembourg have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
UNA Strassen
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
US Rumelange
Wiltz
Victoria Rosport
AS Jeunesse Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange