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Progress / AFA Olaine vs Dinamo Rīga Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2022
Time: 10:00
Final 1-1
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Vs
40%
24%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Progress / AFA Olaine win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-912L33D45L05L09L23L11D02L31W11DA·SKA23/04A·TUK01/05H·SAL07/05A·RIG13/05H·VAL21/05A·RĪG28/05H·RĒZ18/06A·FS 03/07H·GRO16/07A·SAL23/07
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.921.803.601.002.43
vs Stronger (2)1.502.50--1.502.50
vs Similar (7)1.433.001.803.600.501.50
vs Weaker (3)1.003.00--1.003.00
Clean sheet %0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D10W05L03L02L40W21W01L10WH·VAL24/04A·RĪG29/04H·RĒZ07/05A·FS 15/05H·GRO22/05A·SAL29/05H·TUK19/06A·JDF02/07A·SMI16/07H·SKA23/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.171.000.670.671.67
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.500.501.001.00
vs Similar (6)0.171.830.331.000.002.67
vs Weaker (3)2.330.334.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %42% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.5%
Under 2.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.6%
No
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.0%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.0%
2-0
4.8%
1-3
4.5%
1-0
4.4%
Progress / AFA Olaine goals ↓
Dinamo Rīga goals →
01234
03.8%4.1%4.3%2.5%1.1%
14.4%10%7.8%4.5%1.9%
24.8%8.3%7.1%4.1%1.7%
32.9%5.0%4.3%2.5%1.1%
41.3%2.3%2.0%1.1%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Progress / AFA Olaine goals (down), columns = Dinamo Rīga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Salaspils
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
Progress / AFA Olaine is 0.12 points better than Dinamo Rīga in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 0.85).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Skanste
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
Progress / AFA Olaine is 0.81 goals better than Dinamo Rīga in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 0.65).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
Progress / AFA Olaine is 0.58 goals worse than Dinamo Rīga in terms of goals conceded per game (2.77 vs 2.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L31W03L02L05L21W01L00D00D11DA·SKA23/04A·TUK01/05H·SAL07/05A·RIG13/05H·VAL21/05A·RĪG28/05H·RĒZ18/06A·FS 03/07H·GRO16/07A·SAL23/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.581.420.201.800.861.14
vs Stronger (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Similar (7)0.291.430.201.800.500.50
vs Weaker (3)1.001.33--1.001.33
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W02L02L01L20W00D01L10WH·VAL24/04A·RĪG29/04H·RĒZ07/05A·FS 15/05H·GRO22/05A·SAL29/05H·TUK19/06A·JDF02/07A·SMI16/07H·SKA23/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.360.730.800.600.000.83
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (5)0.201.200.501.000.001.33
vs Weaker (3)0.670.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L42W03L04L02L10W02L31W00DA·SKA23/04A·TUK01/05H·SAL07/05A·RIG13/05H·VAL21/05A·RĪG28/05H·RĒZ18/06A·FS 03/07H·GRO16/07A·SAL23/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.501.601.800.141.29
vs Stronger (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
vs Similar (7)1.141.571.601.800.001.00
vs Weaker (3)0.001.67--0.001.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Rīga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D03L01L01L20W21W00D00DH·VAL24/04A·RĪG29/04H·RĒZ07/05A·FS 15/05H·GRO22/05A·SAL29/05H·TUK19/06A·JDF02/07A·SMI16/07H·SKA23/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.550.400.200.670.83
vs Stronger (3)0.330.000.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (5)0.001.000.000.500.001.33
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %64% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Rīga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
P/A wins
0
Draws
0
DR wins

Head-to-head

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Dinamo Rīga · H/A from P/A
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs P/A1-1
16/07/22HP/A Vs Grobiņa3-1
03/07/22AFS Jelgava Vs P/A2-0
18/06/22HP/A Vs Rēzekne FA1-1
28/05/22ARīgas FS II Vs P/A3-2
21/05/22HP/A Vs Valmiera II0-9
13/05/22ARiga FC II Vs P/A5-0
07/05/22HP/A Vs Salaspils4-5
01/05/22ATukums II Vs P/A3-3
23/04/22ASkanste Vs P/A2-1

Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/22HDR Vs Skanste1-0
16/07/22ASmiltene Vs DR1-0
02/07/22AJDFS Alberts Vs DR1-2
19/06/22HDR Vs Tukums II4-0
29/05/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs DR2-0
22/05/22HDR Vs Grobiņa0-3
15/05/22AFS Jelgava Vs DR5-0
07/05/22HDR Vs Rēzekne FA1-0
29/04/22ARīgas FS II Vs DR1-1
24/04/22HDR Vs Valmiera II0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD0.50
HomeLLLDW0.80
AwayDLLLD0.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%20%0%
AVG goals4.255.403.43
Over 1.5 %92%100%86%
Over 2.5 %67%80%57%
Over 3.5 %50%60%43%
Scored1.331.801.00
Conceded2.923.602.43
BTTS67%80%57%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.42
HomeLWLWW1.67
AwayDLLWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%33%
AVG goals2.001.672.33
Over 1.5 %50%33%67%
Over 2.5 %33%33%33%
Over 3.5 %17%17%17%
Scored0.831.000.67
Conceded1.170.671.67
BTTS17%0%33%
Clean Sheet42%67%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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