Prostějov is heavily favoured to win this match, with a 44% chance of a home victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of Karviná emerging victorious. The model's selection is a home win, suggesting a closely contested match with a low-scoring outcome. The expected total goals is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability. Prostějov has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.7. Karviná, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.54 goals and conceding 1.92 when playing away against similar opponents.
The model suggests two selections: Under 3.5, with a 75% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 73.2% probability. Prostějov has a 44% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 28% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The away win by Karviná has sent shockwaves through the Czech-Republic: FNL standings. This result extends Karviná's run after two consecutive victories, a stark contrast to Prostějov's recent struggles, which include two straight defeats. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 44%. Meanwhile, Karviná's away form, boasting an average of 1.54 goals scored per game, proved decisive. The model's call on Home win was wrong. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75%, while Over 1.5 goals also came to fruition, as predicted with a 73.2% chance. The final score was 1-2, a testament to Karviná's away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Prostějov win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied 21.0% · @ 4.31
Edge
+22.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.68
Marathonbet
4.60
Dafabet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
888Sport
4.40
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.53
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Karviná win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 53.3% · @ 1.70
Edge
-25.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Dafabet
1.74
BetVictor
1.73
Superbet
1.73
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Prostějov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.53
1.29
1.57
1.25
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.41
1.30
1.30
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karviná
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.70
1.31
1.50
1.43
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.60
1.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.48
1.78
1.27
1.64
1.67
1.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
@ 1.25-0.5%
Under 1.5
26.8%
@ 3.50+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.42
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.84-4.0%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.88+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
888Sport
1.85
Betfair
1.85
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.93
SBO
1.91
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
@ 3.09-4.8%
Under 3.5
75.0%
@ 1.31+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
888Sport
3.20
Marathonbet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
@ 1.76-0.2%
No
47.9%
@ 1.93+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
No
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.40+6.9%
1-0
10.1%@ 11.40+6.3%
0-0
9.2%@ 9.94+4.8%
2-1
9.0%@ 12.85+5.6%
2-0
8.2%@ 22.30+6.2%
0-1
7.4%@ 6.44+0.6%
1-2 ✓
6.9%@ 7.28+0.8%
2-2
4.9%@ 13.46+1.7%
Prostějov goals ↓
Karviná goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
7.4%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.0%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Prostějov goals (down), columns = Karviná goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ústí nad Labem
2.33
Karviná
2.00
Slavia Praha II
2.00
Příbram
2.00
Táborsko
1.83
Dukla Praha
1.67
Kladno
1.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.33
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Opava
1.00
Vlašim
1.00
Prostějov
0.83
Hanácká
0.67
Třinec
0.67
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Prostějov is 1.17 points worse than Karviná in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha II
2.67
Karviná
2.00
Dukla Praha
1.83
Baník Ostrava II
1.83
Ústí nad Labem
1.83
Příbram
1.83
Vlašim
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50
Táborsko
1.33
Opava
1.33
Prostějov
1.33
Kladno
1.33
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Třinec
1.00
Hanácká
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Prostějov is 0.67 goals worse than Karviná in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.67
Ústí nad Labem
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava
1.00
Karviná
1.17
Kladno
1.17
Baník Ostrava II
1.33
Příbram
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.50
Prostějov
1.50
Vlašim
1.50
Opava
1.67
Slavia Praha II
1.67
Třinec
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.00
Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Žižkov
2.50
Prostějov is 0.33 goals worse than Karviná in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Prostějov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.21
0.57
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.20
0.60
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karviná
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.78
0.55
0.82
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Prostějov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Prostějov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.07
1.00
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.73
1.10
0.70
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Karviná) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karviná
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.75
0.81
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.00
0.73
0.82
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Prostějov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karviná over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.0%
1.31
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Superbet
1.31
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
1.25
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Karviná · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dávid Krčík33%
Abdallah Gning26%
Rok Štorman19%
Kahuan18%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Denny Samko12%
Emmanuel Ayaosi12%
Pavel Kačor12%
Aboubacar Traore12%
Samuel Šigut11%
Lucky Ezeh11%
Albert Labík8%
Alexandr Bužek8%
Jan Fiala7%
Sebastian Boháč5%
Ousmane Conde4%
Kristián Vallo0%
Jiři Fleišman0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Nino Milić0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yevgeniy Skyba33%
Filip Prebsl27%
Vladimir Neuman25%
Pavel Kačor25%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali17%
Aboubacar Traore16%
Emmanuel Ayaosi16%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Jan Fiala13%
Denny Samko12%
Rok Štorman11%
Sebastian Boháč11%
Jiři Fleišman10%
Nino Milić10%
Albert Labík8%
Jakub Lapes8%
Dávid Krčík6%
Abdallah Gning5%
Jakub Křišťan5%
Ousmane Conde4%
Lucky Ezeh4%
Kristián Vallo0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Samuel Šigut0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
David Planka0%
Alexandr Bužek0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Labík17%
Emmanuel Ayaosi16%
Ebrima Singhateh14%
Dávid Krčík11%
Samuel Šigut11%
Abdallah Gning11%
Alexandr Bužek8%
Lucky Ezeh7%
Jan Fiala7%
Denny Samko6%
Pavel Kačor6%
Jan Chytrý5%
Rok Štorman4%
Sahmkou Camara3%
Kristián Vallo0%
Jiři Fleišman0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Nino Milić0%
Sebastian Boháč0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Aboubacar Traore0%
Ousmane Conde0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ebrima Singhateh50%
Abdallah Gning21%
Denny Samko16%
Emmanuel Ayaosi9%
Jan Fiala7%
Pavel Kačor6%
Ousmane Conde4%
Rok Štorman4%
Lucky Ezeh4%
Jiři Fleišman3%
Kristián Vallo0%
Filip Vecheta0%
Vladimir Neuman0%
Jakub Křišťan0%
Filip Prebsl0%
Dávid Krčík0%
Samuel Šigut0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Nino Milić0%
Sebastian Boháč0%
Albert Labík0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
David Planka0%
Jakub Lapes0%
Yahaya Danjuma Lawali0%
Alexandr Bužek0%
Aboubacar Traore0%
Jan Chytrý0%
Kahuan0%
Faycal Konate0%
Vít Valosek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
ÚNL (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
KLA (11)
€2m
AČL (9)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Prostějov's squad is €4m less valuable than Karviná's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
VLA (8)
€2m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
AČL (3)
€0m
KLA (4)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Prostějov's attack is €3m less valuable than Karviná's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
ÚNL (6)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
KLA (2)
€1m
AČL (2)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Prostějov and Karviná have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
KLA (5)
€1m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
AČL (4)
€0m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Prostějov and Karviná have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
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Ústí nad Labem
Slavia Praha II
Příbram
Táborsko
Dukla Praha
Kladno
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Baník Ostrava II
Vysočina Jihlava
Vlašim
Opava
Třinec
Hanácká
Viktoria Žižkov