PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Prostějov vs Varnsdorf Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Prostějov
Prostějov
Vs
41%
27%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Czech-Republic: FNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Prostějov win✗ Miss
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ProstějovProstějov

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L03L11D21W21W22D20W12LA·VYŠ20/07A·SIG27/07H·ZLI31/07A·VIK04/08H·VLA09/08A·BAN18/08H·VYS23/08A·SLA01/09A·BOS04/09A·UHE24/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.471.691.311.061.59
vs Stronger (7)1.291.430.501.501.601.40
vs Similar (23)1.351.481.911.270.831.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W61W02L11D32W01L12L03L23L30WH·OPA31/07A·ZBR03/08A·BAN07/08A·SPA11/08A·PŘE21/08A·ART24/08H·VYŠ01/09H·CHR18/09H·SIG22/09A·SOK25/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.532.141.571.691.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.901.532.141.571.691.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
Prostějov goals ↓
Varnsdorf goals →
01234
06.5%6.2%5.0%2.2%0.8%
17.3%13%7.8%3.5%1.2%
26.6%8.9%6.1%2.7%0.9%
33.4%4.7%3.2%1.4%0.5%
41.3%1.8%1.2%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Prostějov goals (down), columns = Varnsdorf goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zlin
2.37
Chrudim
1.77
Vyškov
1.53
Táborsko
1.37
Vlašim
1.33
Sparta Praha II
1.33
Zbrojovka Brno
1.30
Artis
1.30
Viktoria Žižkov
1.30
Vysočina Jihlava
1.23
Slavia Praha II
1.23
Prostějov
1.23
Opava
1.20
Baník Ostrava II
1.13
Varnsdorf
1.07
Sigma Olomouc II
0.80
Prostějov is 0.17 points better than Varnsdorf in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Viktoria Žižkov
1.70
Chrudim
1.57
Zlin
1.50
Vlašim
1.43
Slavia Praha II
1.37
Sparta Praha II
1.37
Zbrojovka Brno
1.30
Varnsdorf
1.30
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Táborsko
1.13
Vyškov
1.10
Sigma Olomouc II
1.03
Artis
1.03
Prostějov
1.03
Opava
0.97
Prostějov is 0.27 goals worse than Varnsdorf in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zlin
0.47
Vyškov
0.80
Chrudim
1.00
Táborsko
1.00
Artis
1.17
Slavia Praha II
1.23
Opava
1.30
Vysočina Jihlava
1.30
Vlašim
1.30
Sparta Praha II
1.30
Zbrojovka Brno
1.37
Prostějov
1.40
Baník Ostrava II
1.53
Varnsdorf
1.57
Viktoria Žižkov
1.63
Sigma Olomouc II
1.80
Prostějov is 0.17 goals better than Varnsdorf in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ProstějovProstějov

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L01L10W11D11D11D20W11DA·VYŠ20/07A·SIG27/07H·ZLI31/07A·VIK04/08H·VLA09/08A·BAN18/08H·VYS23/08A·SLA01/09A·BOS04/09A·UHE24/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.690.770.470.47
vs Stronger (7)0.570.570.000.500.800.60
vs Similar (23)0.570.610.820.820.330.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W00D00D20W01L01L01L20W00DH·OPA31/07A·ZBR03/08A·BAN07/08A·SPA11/08A·PŘE21/08A·ART24/08H·VYŠ01/09H·CHR18/09H·SIG22/09A·SOK25/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.790.640.750.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.770.530.790.640.750.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Prostějov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ProstějovProstějov

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L02L01L10W10W11D00D01LA·VYŠ20/07A·SIG27/07H·ZLI31/07A·VIK04/08H·VLA09/08A·BAN18/08H·VYS23/08A·SLA01/09A·BOS04/09A·UHE24/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.871.000.540.591.12
vs Stronger (7)0.710.860.501.000.800.80
vs Similar (23)0.780.871.090.450.501.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W21W02L11D12L00D11D02L03L30WH·OPA31/07A·ZBR03/08A·BAN07/08A·SPA11/08A·PŘE21/08A·ART24/08H·VYŠ01/09H·CHR18/09H·SIG22/09A·SOK25/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.001.360.930.941.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.131.001.360.930.941.06
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Prostějov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
ZB (31)
€10m
ART (30)
€9m
ZLI (27)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZB (10)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
ART (9)
€2m
ZLI (8)
€2m
VLA (8)
€2m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZLI (6)
€2m
ZB (8)
€2m
SPI (5)
€2m
ART (8)
€2m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
ART (13)
€5m
ZB (13)
€5m
ZLI (13)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
PRO wins
1
Draws
2
VAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Prostějov vs Varnsdorf · H/A from PRO
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24AVarnsdorf Vs PRO5-1
23/09/23HPRO Vs Varnsdorf1-0
04/03/23HPRO Vs Varnsdorf1-1
14/08/22AVarnsdorf Vs PRO2-0

ProstějovProstějov

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/24AUherský Brod Vs PRO2-1
04/09/24ABospor Bohumín Vs PRO0-2
01/09/24ASlavia Praha II Vs PRO2-2
23/08/24HPRO Vs Vysočina Jihlava2-1
18/08/24ABaník Ostrava II Vs PRO1-2
09/08/24HPRO Vs Vlašim1-1
04/08/24AViktoria Žižkov Vs PRO3-0
31/07/24HPRO Vs Zlin0-2
27/07/24ASigma Olomouc II Vs PRO0-0
20/07/24AVyškov Vs PRO0-0

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/24ASokol Živanice Vs VAR0-3
22/09/24HVAR Vs Sigma Olomouc II2-3
18/09/24HVAR Vs Chrudim0-3
01/09/24HVAR Vs Vyškov1-2
24/08/24AArtis Vs VAR1-0
21/08/24APřepeře Vs VAR2-3
11/08/24ASparta Praha II Vs VAR1-1
07/08/24ABaník Ostrava II Vs VAR2-0
03/08/24AZbrojovka Brno Vs VAR1-6
31/07/24HVAR Vs Opava3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Prostějov
Prostějov
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.26
HomeWWLDW1.78
AwayLWDWL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%57%19%
AVG goals2.922.783.04
Over 1.5 %76%70%81%
Over 2.5 %60%57%63%
Over 3.5 %28%26%30%
Scored1.241.521.00
Conceded1.681.262.04
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet22%22%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.18
HomeDWLLL1.50
AwayLDWLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%38%19%
AVG goals3.584.123.08
Over 1.5 %86%92%81%
Over 2.5 %64%71%58%
Over 3.5 %44%58%31%
Scored1.842.291.42
Conceded1.741.831.65
BTTS76%83%69%
Clean Sheet6%4%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZlinZlin3071
70%
2.4
4514+31
2.0
67%
33%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.50.5
-
2ChrudimChrudim3053
50%
1.8
4730+17
2.6
77%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
3VyškovVyškov3046
40%
1.5
3324+9
1.9
60%
33%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
4TáborskoTáborsko3041
37%
1.4
3430+4
2.1
60%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.0
-
5VlašimVlašim3040
30%
1.3
4339+4
2.7
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.41.3
-
6Sparta Praha IISparta Praha II3040
33%
1.3
4139+2
2.7
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Viktoria ŽižkovViktoria Žižkov3039
37%
1.3
5149+2
3.3
80%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.6
-
8Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka Brno3039
30%
1.3
3941-2
2.7
77%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.31.4
-
9ArtisArtis3039
30%
1.3
3135-4
2.2
70%
33%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2251.01.2
-
10Slavia Praha IISlavia Praha II3037
30%
1.2
4137+4
2.6
73%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
3261.41.2
-
11Vysočina JihlavaVysočina Jihlava3037
27%
1.2
3539-4
2.5
87%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
12ProstějovProstějov3037
30%
1.2
3142-11
2.4
73%
47%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.4
-
13OpavaOpava3036
30%
1.2
2939-10
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.3
-
14Baník Ostrava IIBaník Ostrava II3034
30%
1.1
3546-11
2.7
67%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.21.5
-
15VarnsdorfVarnsdorf3032
27%
1.1
3947-8
2.9
87%
57%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
16Sigma Olomouc IISigma Olomouc II3024
20%
0.8
3154-23
2.8
77%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Czech-Republic: FNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →

← all matches