The contest between Prykarpattia and Chernihiv is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 36 percent, a draw at 29 percent and an away win at 35 percent. The most likely result is a 1-1 draw, which carries a 14 percent chance. On average the match should see 2.5 goals, with a 27 percent probability that the total will be exactly two. Prykarpattia, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and one conceded. Chernihiv, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and one conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include an Under 3.5 at 75 percent and an Over 1.5 at 73.2 percent. Prykarpattia’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Chernihiv is coming off a defeat. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every suggested pick is listed with its chance.
Results analysis
Prykarpattia’s two-game winning streak carried them into the match, while Chernihiv entered on a defeat. The model’s favourite, a home win at 36%, proved correct as Prykarpattia secured a 2-0 victory. The predicted 2-goal total was met, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 proving a close call. Under 3.5, with a 75% probability, hit, and Over 1.5, at 73.2%, also hit, both selections were fulfilled. The model’s choice of a home win was validated, and the overall predictions largely aligned with the final outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Prykarpattia win✓ Hit
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Prykarpattia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.82
1.41
0.88
1.25
0.78
1.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
24% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
1.29
0.78
1.11
1.38
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
0.33
1.33
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
24% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
2-0 ✓
6.5%
0-2
6.2%
Prykarpattia goals ↓
Chernihiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
8.7%
6.2%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.9%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.5%
8.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.8%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Prykarpattia goals (down), columns = Chernihiv goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Polessya
2.55
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Khust City
2.00
Obolon'-Brovar
1.91
Karpaty
1.82
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.55
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.55
Prykarpattia
1.36
Skoruk Tomakivka
1.27
Kremin'
1.18
Nyva Ternopil
1.14
Chernihiv
1.09
SK Poltava
1.05
Bukovyna
1.00
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.00
Hirnyk-Sport
0.73
Yarud Mariupol'
0.62
Prykarpattia is 0.27 points better than Chernihiv in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polessya
2.18
LNZ Cherkasy
1.64
Kremin'
1.59
Karpaty
1.41
Obolon'-Brovar
1.32
SK Poltava
1.18
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.14
Skoruk Tomakivka
1.14
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.09
Prykarpattia
1.09
Nyva Ternopil
1.05
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.05
Khust City
1.00
Yarud Mariupol'
0.96
Bukovyna
0.95
Chernihiv
0.91
Hirnyk-Sport
0.73
Prykarpattia is 0.18 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Khust City
0.50
Polessya
0.55
LNZ Cherkasy
0.64
Obolon'-Brovar
0.73
Nyva Ternopil
0.91
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.00
Karpaty
1.00
Skoruk Tomakivka
1.14
Prykarpattia
1.18
Chernihiv
1.32
Bukovyna
1.36
SK Poltava
1.55
Yarud Mariupol'
1.67
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.73
Hirnyk-Sport
1.77
Kremin'
1.86
Prykarpattia is 0.14 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Prykarpattia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.35
0.76
0.38
0.75
0.33
0.78
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.35
0.59
0.11
0.56
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.00
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Prykarpattia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Prykarpattia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.65
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.78
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.50
0.75
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.71
0.67
0.56
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Prykarpattia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (32)
€34m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
BUK (25)
€9m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
CHE (22)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
Prykarpattia and Chernihiv have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (9)
€12m
LC (9)
€8m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
OBO (9)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
CHE (4)
€0m
Prykarpattia and Chernihiv have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (9)
€8m
LC (5)
€5m
KAR (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
OBO (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
Prykarpattia and Chernihiv have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (14)
€14m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
NT (9)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
Prykarpattia and Chernihiv have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →