PSV Eindhoven’s recent 6-1 rout of Utrecht shows a potent attack that has averaged two goals at home against similar opposition, while conceding 1.67. Feyenoord, meanwhile, has scored none and conceded 2.5 away, yet remains unbeaten in five matches, drawing 2-2 with ADO Den Haag. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.7 goals and the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.4% chance. Home win is the favourite outcome, with a 46% probability, draw 23%, and away win 31%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals (95.5%), Under 6.5 (89.9%), Under 25.5 fouls (88.9%), Over 1.5 goals (88.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.4%), Under 5.5 cards (86.8%), and Home under 3.5 goals (84.3%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
PSV Eindhoven win
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord win
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
PSV Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
3.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.87
1.53
3.31
1.56
2.36
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
3.12
1.44
3.62
1.54
2.58
1.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.53
2.27
1.53
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.16
1.44
2.58
1.50
1.77
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.2%
Under 1.5
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.4%
Under 2.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.5%
Under 3.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.5%
No
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.5%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
5.7%
3-2
4.9%
1-0
4.5%
PSV Eindhoven goals ↓
Feyenoord goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
3.0%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
1
4.5%
9.1%
6.5%
3.4%
1.3%
2
5.7%
8.8%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
4.0%
6.3%
4.9%
2.6%
1.0%
4
2.1%
3.4%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PSV Eindhoven goals (down), columns = Feyenoord goals (across).
Advertisement
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
PSV Eindhoven is 0.56 points better than Feyenoord in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
PSV Eindhoven is 0.91 goals better than Feyenoord in terms of goals scored per game (2.97 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
PSV Eindhoven is 0.03 goals worse than Feyenoord in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
PSV Eindhoven is 7.8 percentage points better than Feyenoord in terms of average possession (61% vs 53%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
PSV Eindhoven or Draw
68.3%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
27%
covers PSV Eindhoven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord
77.8%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
27%
covers PSV Eindhoven + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Feyenoord
53.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
27%
covers Draw + Feyenoord
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5
Over
88.2%
Under
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 3.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5
Over
82.9%
Under
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to PSV Eindhoven, so a minus line means PSV Eindhoven give that many goals of a start and Feyenoord receive them. At -1, PSV Eindhoven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal PSV Eindhoven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven -2
13.4%
Draw -2
13.9%
Feyenoord +2
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven -1
27.3%
Draw -1
18.8%
Feyenoord +1
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven +1
68.3%
Draw +1
15.4%
Feyenoord -1
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven +2
83.7%
Draw +2
9.5%
Feyenoord -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PSV Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.83
1.56
0.88
1.21
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.84
1.62
1.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.60
1.08
0.58
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PSV Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.70
1.75
0.69
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.64
0.60
2.00
0.54
1.25
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Feyenoord
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.33
0.87
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.84
1.50
0.92
0.69
0.77
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PSV Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergiño Dest67%
Ricardo Pepi50%
Ruben van Bommel50%
Sven Mijnans33%
Noah Fernandez33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro JĂşnior25%
Guus Til25%
Ryan Flamingo25%
Armando Obispo0%
Dennis Man0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Kodai Sano0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Man33%
Armando Obispo25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Ivan Perišić0%
Mauro JĂşnior0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Sergiño Dest0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergiño Dest67%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro JĂşnior25%
Paul Wanner25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Amir Bouhamdi25%
Armando Obispo0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Dennis Man0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Pepi75%
Guus Til50%
Sergiño Dest33%
Dennis Man33%
Kodai Sano33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Armando Obispo0%
Mauro JĂşnior0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Feyenoord
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayase Ueda75%
Luciano Valente50%
Gjivai Zechiël50%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charles Vanhoutte25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Ayase Ueda0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gjivai Zechiël0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oussama Targhalline33%
Ayase Ueda25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Gaoussou Diarra25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ayase Ueda75%
Anis Hadj Moussa50%
Gaoussou Diarra50%
Luciano Valente25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
PSV Eindhoven's squad is €51m more valuable than Feyenoord's (€280m vs €229m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
PSV Eindhoven's attack is €13m more valuable than Feyenoord's (€106m vs €93m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
PSV Eindhoven's midfield is €16m more valuable than Feyenoord's (€60m vs €43m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
PSV Eindhoven's defence is €21m more valuable than Feyenoord's (€115m vs €93m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur