PSV Eindhoven’s recent 6-1 demolition of Utrecht fuels the model’s confidence that a home win is the most likely outcome. The algorithm assigns an 81% chance to a PSV victory, 12% to a draw and only 7% to a Sparta win, making the home side the clear favourite. The expected total of 4.1 goals and a 23% probability of 6 + goals signal a high-scoring affair, yet the single most likely scoreline is 3-0, with an 8.9% chance. PSV’s home form is formidable against weaker opponents, averaging 3.62 goals scored and 1.54 conceded, while Sparta’s away record against stronger teams is weaker, with only 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include an Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.9% with a 7% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7% with a 1% edge), Home +2 handicap (96.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (96.2% with a 3% edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.9% with a 4% edge), Over 1.5 (92.1% with a 2% edge) and Under 7.5 (91.7%). The model’s pick remains a PSV home win, reflecting the stark venue advantage and Sparta’s recent dip after a loss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
PSV Eindhoven win
80.8%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.21
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Draw
12.3%
Avg Implied 13.7% · @ 6.82
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.28
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Marathonbet
6.80
Sparta Rotterdam win
6.8%
Avg Implied 8.8% · @ 10.59
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
11.70
Marathonbet
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Betano
10.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
PSV Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
3.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.87
1.53
3.31
1.56
2.36
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
3.12
1.44
3.62
1.54
2.58
1.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.67
1.20
1.33
1.40
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.12
0.75
1.75
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.36
1.50
1.36
1.18
1.36
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.1%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Under 1.5
7.9%
@ 9.06-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Under
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Betano
8.50
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.21+0.6%
Under 2.5
22.3%
@ 4.07-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Bet365
4.20
Betano
4.00
1xBet
3.82
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
@ 1.59-0.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
@ 2.33+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Under
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.29
Both teams to score
Yes
58.1%
@ 1.53-2.7%
No
41.9%
@ 2.36+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
No
10Bet
2.45
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
8.9%@ 9.43+4.1%
2-0
8.4%@ 9.81+3.8%
3-1
8.2%@ 9.22+3.3%
2-1
7.7%@ 9.49+2.9%
4-0
7.1%@ 11.72+3.2%
4-1
6.5%@ 11.28+2.5%
1-1
5.3%@ 13.91+2.0%
1-0
4.8%@ 14.03+1.5%
PSV Eindhoven goals ↓
Sparta Rotterdam goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
1.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
1
4.8%
5.3%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
2
8.4%
7.7%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.9%
8.2%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
7.1%
6.5%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PSV Eindhoven goals (down), columns = Sparta Rotterdam goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
PSV Eindhoven is 1.21 points better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
PSV Eindhoven is 1.79 goals better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of goals scored per game (2.97 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
PSV Eindhoven is 0.50 goals better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
PSV Eindhoven is 13.8 percentage points better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of average possession (61% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PSV Eindhoven
For 7.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 8.1 · Total 16.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sparta Rotterdam
For 4.2 · Against 7.1 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.7 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PSV Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.4
11.0
3.0
3.2
2.9
18.4
18.2
18.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
11.1
12.7
9.5
3.4
4.7
2.1
20.0
21.8
18.2
vs Weaker (36)
11.2
11.0
11.4
2.9
2.6
3.2
17.9
16.9
18.9
% over line
73%
75%
71%
30%
32%
28%
19%
17%
21%
% under line
27%
25%
29%
70%
68%
72%
81%
83%
79%
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.9
3.5
3.3
3.6
20.6
20.4
20.8
vs Stronger (15)
10.9
11.1
10.7
3.1
3.4
2.9
19.1
18.4
20.0
vs Similar (35)
10.8
10.6
10.9
3.6
3.3
3.9
21.3
21.4
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
64%
62%
52%
50%
54%
43%
36%
50%
% under line
37%
36%
38%
48%
50%
46%
57%
64%
50%
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
68.8%
@ 1.30-2.0%
Under 9.5
31.2%
@ 3.15+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.30
Under
Unibet
3.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
31.2%
Under 21.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
PSV Eindhoven or Draw
90.3%
Avg Implied 91.0% · @ 1.04
Edge
-0.7%
81%
12%
7%
covers PSV Eindhoven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
William Hil
1.05
PSV Eindhoven or Sparta Rotterdam
86.6%
Avg Implied 86.6% · @ 1.10
Edge
+0.0%
81%
12%
7%
covers PSV Eindhoven + Sparta Rotterdam
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam
23.1%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.25
Edge
+0.7%
81%
12%
7%
covers Draw + Sparta Rotterdam
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.38
Unibet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.30
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5
Over
96.2%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Under
3.8%
@ 13.50-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Under
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.00
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5
Over
83.7%
@ 1.15+3.1%
Under
16.3%
@ 4.81-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.45
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5
Over
63.4%
@ 1.54+2.7%
Under
36.6%
@ 2.38-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
PSV Eindhoven over/under 3.5
Over
41.2%
@ 2.35+1.6%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.54-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
10Bet
2.35
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
@ 1.48+7.0%
Under
30.4%
@ 2.48-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.43
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
@ 3.31+5.4%
Under
66.6%
@ 1.29-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.44
1xBet
3.44
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5
Over
11.9%
@ 9.05+1.6%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.04-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
9.40
Unibet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
@ 20.75-1.3%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to PSV Eindhoven, so a minus line means PSV Eindhoven give that many goals of a start and Sparta Rotterdam receive them. At -1, PSV Eindhoven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal PSV Eindhoven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven -2
40.3%
@ 2.20-0.5%
Draw -2
19.3%
@ 4.28-1.7%
Sparta Rotterdam +2
40.4%
@ 2.35+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Unibet
2.12
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Unibet
2.43
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Handicap -1 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven -1
59.6%
@ 1.52+0.5%
Draw -1
17.4%
@ 4.57-2.2%
Sparta Rotterdam +1
23.1%
@ 4.19+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Handicap +1 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven +1
90.3%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Draw +1
6.0%
@ 12.00-1.7%
Sparta Rotterdam -1
3.6%
@ 22.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
17.00
Handicap +2 (PSV Eindhoven)
PSV Eindhoven +2
96.4%
Draw +2
2.6%
Sparta Rotterdam -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PSV Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.83
1.56
0.88
1.21
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.84
1.62
1.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.45
0.64
0.27
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.1%
@ 1.13-1.1%
Under 0.5
18.9%
@ 5.21+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Under
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.6%
@ 1.69-7.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
@ 2.08+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Under
William Hil
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.8%
@ 3.14-6.8%
Under 2.5
77.2%
@ 1.32+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Unibet
3.15
Under
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
70.7%
@ 1.25-3.4%
Under
29.3%
@ 3.58+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Under
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.65
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.30
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
38.2%
@ 2.22-3.6%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.59+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
13.0%
@ 4.78-6.4%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.15+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.90
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.9%
@ 2.52+1.1%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.47-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.63
Betano
2.57
Marathonbet
2.53
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.1%
@ 9.28-3.9%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
Unibet
9.50
1xBet
9.10
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PSV Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.70
1.75
0.69
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.64
0.60
2.00
0.54
1.25
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.93
1.00
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
1.05
0.73
0.91
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.1%
@ 1.07-0.7%
Under 0.5
12.9%
@ 7.67+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Under
1xBet
8.40
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.30
William Hil
7.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.3%
@ 1.39-4.4%
Under 1.5
37.7%
@ 2.78+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Under
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.87
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.8%
@ 2.23-9.9%
Under 2.5
68.2%
@ 1.59+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Unibet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
80.6%
@ 1.16+0.2%
Under
19.4%
@ 4.75-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.70
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
46.5%
@ 1.76-6.2%
Under
53.5%
@ 1.96+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
23.8%
@ 3.30-4.3%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.29+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.1%
@ 2.09-8.3%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.67+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.62
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.0%
@ 6.34-5.6%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.08+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
6.40
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.1%
@ 11.75-6.9%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.02+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.3%
Home +2 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+3.9%
Over 1.5
92.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.4%
Under 7.5
91.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.02
-
-0.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+5.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
William Hil
1.05
-0.7%
Home +1 handicap
90.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+2.3%
Under 5.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
-1.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
-
-0.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
-
+6.4%
Home or Away
86.6%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+0.0%
Home over 1.5 goals
83.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+3.1%
Under 6.5
83.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-1.5%
Under 23.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
81.1%
1.13
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
-1.1%
Home win
80.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
+3.4%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.16
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.2%
Over 8.5 corners
79.1%
1.18
Unibet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
Under 4.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.7%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
77.2%
1.32
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
+6.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
-
-
+4.3%
Under 5.5
71.0%
1.25
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
-3.3%
Home over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.25
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
-
-3.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PSV Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergiño Dest67%
Ricardo Pepi50%
Ruben van Bommel50%
Sven Mijnans33%
Noah Fernandez33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Guus Til25%
Ryan Flamingo25%
Armando Obispo0%
Dennis Man0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Kodai Sano0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Man33%
Armando Obispo25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Ivan Perišić0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Sergiño Dest0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergiño Dest67%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Paul Wanner25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Amir Bouhamdi25%
Armando Obispo0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Dennis Man0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Pepi75%
Guus Til50%
Sergiño Dest33%
Dennis Man33%
Kodai Sano33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Armando Obispo0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Sparta Rotterdam
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Milan Zonneveld50%
Marvin Young50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Nick Verschuren25%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jens Toornstra33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bas Kuipers25%
Casper Terho25%
Lushendry Edward Martes25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Nökkvi Þórisson0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bas Kuipers50%
Shunsuke Mito50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Joel Ideho33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Casper Terho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nökkvi Þórisson67%
Ayoni Santos33%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
PSV Eindhoven's squad is €252m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€280m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
PSV Eindhoven's attack is €92m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€106m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
PSV Eindhoven's midfield is €58m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€60m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
PSV Eindhoven's defence is €102m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€115m vs €12m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur