PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven hosts Twente in the Netherlands: Eredivisie on May 17, 2026. The model's recent-form note highlights PSV's unbeaten streak in their last 5 matches, with a 2-2 draw against Fortuna Sittard. Meanwhile, Twente comes off a 6-0 win against Dunajska Streda.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.9 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8.3%. The model also suggests a high-scoring game, with over 1.5 goals having a probability of 91.2% and over 2.5 goals at 75.3%, with an edge of 4%.
PSV Eindhoven has been scoring an average of 3.33 goals at home, conceding 1.58. Twente, on the other hand, averages 1.67 goals away from home, conceding 1.33. The model's favoured match result is a home win, with a probability of 49%. The other probabilities are a 22% draw and a 29% away win.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 at 91.2%, Over 2.5 at 75.3% with an edge of 4%, and BTTS Yes at 73.9%. The home win percentage is 49%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 29%.
The win extends PSV Eindhoven's unbeaten run to six matches, a testament to their strong form at home. The final score of 5-1 to PSV Eindhoven was the actual result, with the home side convincingly taking the three points. The model correctly predicted a home win, which was the pre-match favourite with a 49% probability. The model's selection of a home win was correct, as the favourites came in. The model's other selections also largely came in, with Over 1.5 hitting at 91.2% probability, Over 2.5 hitting at 75.3%, and BTTS Yes hitting at 73.9%.
PSV Eindhoven| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.70 | 1.40 | 3.14 | 1.50 | 2.31 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 2.00 | 1.83 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 2.88 | 1.29 | 3.45 | 1.45 | 2.38 | 1.15 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Twente| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 1.07 | 1.71 | 0.71 | 2.19 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.57 | 1.29 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (9) | 2.11 | 1.11 | 2.40 | 0.80 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 2.07 | 0.93 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 2.75 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
| Twente goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
PSV EindhovenTwentePSV Eindhoven| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 18.4 | 18.0 | 18.7 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 11.2 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 20.1 | 21.8 | 18.6 |
| vs Weaker (37) | 10.9 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 17.8 | 16.8 | 18.7 |
| % over line | 72% | 75% | 69% | 32% | 33% | 31% | 18% | 17% | 19% |
| % under line | 28% | 25% | 31% | 68% | 67% | 69% | 82% | 83% | 81% |
Twente| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 21.3 | 20.5 | 22.2 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 22.4 | 21.4 | 23.5 |
| vs Similar (15) | 9.3 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 20.7 | 19.7 | 21.6 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 9.1 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 21.1 | 20.3 | 21.9 |
| % over line | 39% | 38% | 40% | 44% | 38% | 50% | 49% | 46% | 52% |
| % under line | 61% | 62% | 60% | 56% | 62% | 50% | 51% | 54% | 48% |
PSV Eindhoven| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 0.77 | 1.57 | 0.79 | 1.31 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.54 | 0.75 | 1.64 | 0.91 | 1.46 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Twente| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
PSV Eindhoven| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.63 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.33 | 0.54 | 1.82 | 0.55 | 0.92 | 0.54 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Twente| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.56 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.56 | 0.56 | 1.60 | 0.20 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.36 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 75.3% | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | - | +3.7% | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 73.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/04/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 06/12/24 | H | 6-1 | |
| 17/03/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/11/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 26/02/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 03/09/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/22 | A | 3-3 |
PSV Eindhoven| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-3 |
Twente| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 84 | 79% | 2.5 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 4.3 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 11.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 29% | 18.6 | 21% | 323 | 139 | 77 | 108 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 45% | 21.6 | 50% | 216 | 78 | 51 | 87 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 3 |  Ajax | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 65 | 42 | +23 | 3.0 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.7 | 44% | 22.4 | 58% | 260 | 119 | 53 | 87 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 3.8 | 97% | 74% | 56% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.1 | 47% | 24.1 | 65% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 5 | Twente | 34 | 58 | 44% | 1.7 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 85% | 50% | 32% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.6 | 41% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Utrecht | 36 | 57 | 44% | 1.6 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 58% | 3.4 | 46% | 21.9 | 47% | 88 | 30 | 24 | 34 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 52 | 41% | 1.5 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 44% | 10.3 | 56% | 3.6 | 39% | 21.6 | 50% | 205 | 100 | 43 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 59 | 58 | +1 | 3.2 | 94% | 69% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.1 | 37% | 20.4 | 42% | 49 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 9 |  Groningen | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 2.7 | 89% | 54% | 23% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.5 | 45% | 20.8 | 51% | 32 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.0 | 76% | 53% | 38% | 11.2 | 68% | 4.1 | 68% | 20.7 | 44% | 32 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39 | 32% | 1.1 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 88% | 68% | 38% | 11.1 | 59% | 3.6 | 42% | 23.9 | 65% | 22 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 38 | 24% | 1.1 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 11.6 | 71% | 3.5 | 39% | 19.1 | 24% | 36 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 34 | 38 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 2.9 | 82% | 62% | 29% | 9.3 | 44% | 3.3 | 40% | 21.0 | 41% | 19 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Telstar | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 3.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.5 | 41% | 21.6 | 47% | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 3.4 | 85% | 62% | 44% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.5 | 47% | 23.3 | 68% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 45% |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 2.6 | 85% | 59% | 18% | 10.3 | 62% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 35 | 32 | 20% | 0.9 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.7 | 71% | 49% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.7 | 69% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 19 | 15% | 0.6 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 3.5 | 91% | 71% | 38% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.9 | 53% | 24.8 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |