The contest between Puskas Academy and Ferencvarosi TC is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving plenty of room for surprise. The odds are 40% for a Puskas Academy victory, 31% for a draw, and 30% for Ferencvarosi TC to come out on top, making the home side the single most likely result. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance. Puskas Academy’s home form data against this tier of opponents is not supplied, while Ferencvarosi TC, playing away against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. The model’s selections include an over 2.5 cards chance of 95.7%, over 3.5 cards at 88.9%, over 8.5 corners at 82.5%, under 3.5 at 79.3% (miss), over 4.5 cards at 77.8%, and over 9.5 corners at 73.2%.
Results analysis
The upset came as Ferencvarosi TC, riding a four-game winning streak, overturned the pre-match favourite Puskas Academy, who had only just recovered from a defeat. The final score was 2-4, an away win that left the model’s pick of a home win incorrect. The model had given the home side a 40% chance of victory, a 31% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of an away win; the favourite was therefore the home team. In addition to the incorrect home win call, the model’s single other selection, Under 3.5 goals at 79.3%, missed as the match produced six goals. All figures are taken directly from the data.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Puskas Academy win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC win✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Puskas Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.85
1.00
0.33
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
31% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.00
2.64
0.91
1.50
1.10
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.50
1.67
2.33
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
0.54
3.14
0.29
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.2%
Under 2.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.7%
Under 3.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.5%
Puskas Academy goals ↓
Ferencvarosi TC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.1%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.8%
8.3%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.3%
3.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Puskas Academy goals (down), columns = Ferencvarosi TC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.91
Kecskeméti TE
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.64
Puskas Academy
1.61
Paks
1.48
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.27
Ujpest
1.24
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.18
Fehérvár FC
1.06
Budapest Honved
1.00
Vasas
0.79
Puskas Academy is 0.30 points worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.88
Paks
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.58
Kecskeméti TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.45
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Ujpest
1.27
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.21
Fehérvár FC
1.15
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.12
Budapest Honved
1.03
Vasas
0.88
Puskas Academy is 0.42 goals worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kecskeméti TE
0.97
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.18
Puskas Academy
1.27
Fehérvár FC
1.30
Vasas
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Budapest Honved
1.55
Ujpest
1.67
Paks
1.73
Puskas Academy is 0.27 goals worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Puskas Academy
For 3.6 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ferencvarosi TC
For 3.9 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Puskas Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
10.4
8.5
11.7
1.8
3.0
0.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
3.0
-
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
11.0
8.5
13.5
2.1
4.5
0.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
0%
67%
15%
33%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
60%
100%
33%
85%
67%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (21)
10.2
10.7
9.6
2.8
3.0
2.5
26.1
28.5
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
32.5
37.0
28.0
vs Similar (6)
10.5
10.7
10.3
5.0
5.3
4.7
22.8
25.0
20.5
vs Weaker (13)
10.0
9.7
11.0
1.2
1.6
0.8
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
58%
57%
60%
38%
36%
40%
71%
75%
67%
% under line
42%
43%
40%
62%
64%
60%
29%
25%
33%
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
16.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
15.0
Debreceni VSC
13.0
Budapest Honved
12.3
Ujpest
11.0
Puskas Academy
10.4
Ferencvarosi TC
10.2
Fehérvár FC
10.0
Kisvarda FC
9.4
Mezokovesd-zsory
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ujpest
8.0
Zalaegerszegi TE
7.5
Paks
6.5
Puskas Academy
6.0
Fehérvár FC
5.9
Budapest Honved
5.3
Debreceni VSC
5.0
Ferencvarosi TC
4.8
Kisvarda FC
4.2
Mezokovesd-zsory
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ferencvarosi TC
26.1
Fehérvár FC
15.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
73.2%
Under 9.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.9%
Under 3.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Puskas Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.31
0.54
0.33
0.17
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.25
0.25
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
54% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
0.43
1.36
0.27
0.90
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.31
1.57
0.14
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Puskas Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.31
0.67
0.17
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.30
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
69% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.95
0.57
1.27
0.64
0.60
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.00
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.23
1.57
0.14
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Puskas Academy · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lamin Colley50%
Georgiy Harutyunyan40%
Palkó Dárdai20%
Dániel Lukács20%
András Németh20%
Martin Kern20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
Michael Okeke0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Roland Orján67%
Martin Kern60%
Lamin Colley50%
Laros Duarte25%
Wojciech Golla20%
András Németh20%
Michael Okeke20%
Zsombor Varga20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Dániel Lukács0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Urho Nissilä33%
Roland Szolnoki25%
Palkó Dárdai20%
Dániel Lukács20%
András Németh20%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
Lamin Colley0%
Michael Okeke0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Martin Kern0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lamin Colley25%
Dániel Lukács20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
András Németh0%
Michael Okeke0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Martin Kern0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
Ferencvarosi TC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristoffer Zachariassen38%
Samy Mmaee17%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Muhamed Bešić60%
Endre Botka50%
Mats Knoester43%
Aissa Laïdouni40%
Samy Mmaee33%
Eldar Ćivić33%
Adama Malouda Traoré29%
Marquinhos Costa25%
Dénes Dibusz25%
Bálint Vécsei25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Henry Wingo14%
Kristoffer Zachariassen12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Franck Boli0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tokmac Nguen33%
Lóránd Pászka25%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Henry Wingo14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Kristoffer Zachariassen0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kristoffer Zachariassen25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Amer Gojak0%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
KT (22)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
Puskas Academy's squad is €29m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€11m vs €40m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
KT (9)
€1m
BH (6)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
Puskas Academy's attack is €19m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€5m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
KT (2)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
Puskas Academy's midfield is €5m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KT (11)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
Puskas Academy's defence is €5m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€4m vs €9m).
Hungary: NB I 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kecskeméti TE
Debreceni VSC
Paks
Kisvarda FC
Mezokovesd-zsory
Ujpest
Zalaegerszegi TE
Fehérvár FC
Budapest Honved
Vasas