Puskas Academy is expected to emerge victorious in this Hungary: NB I clash against Kisvarda FC, with a 48% chance of a home win. The draw is possible with a 27% probability, while Kisvarda FC's away win is less likely at 25%. The model's selection is a home win, and the expected total number of goals is 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw with a 12.6% probability.
Puskas Academy has been scoring an average of 1.25 goals at home, while conceding 1.75 goals. Kisvarda FC, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.08 goals away from home and conceding 1.92 goals.
The model suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals with a 78.3% probability and an edge of 7%. It also recommends taking Over 21.5 fouls with a 74.4% probability. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 25%.
Results analysis
In a major upset, Kisvarda FC stunned the pre-match favourite Puskas Academy, securing a 0-2 away win. This result extends Kisvarda FC's run of coming off a defeat, as they bounce back from a 2-4 loss to Ujpest. Puskas Academy, however, saw their win streak snapped, having previously come off a 3-2 victory over MTK Budapest. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's call was wrong, as Puskas Academy failed to deliver. Meanwhile, the model suggested Over 1.5 as its selection, which hit with a probability of 78.3%, and Over 21.5 fouls, which also hit with a probability of 74.4%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Puskas Academy win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied 52.4% · @ 1.75
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
Unibet
1.79
10Bet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.45
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
Dafabet
3.55
Kisvarda FC win✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied 21.0% · @ 4.39
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.05
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.41
Marathonbet
4.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Puskas Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.27
1.08
1.38
1.35
1.18
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
1.35
1.18
1.36
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.60
0.00
1.00
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kisvarda FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kisvarda FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.19
1.00
0.86
2.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
1.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.50
1.25
0.92
1.00
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
@ 1.30+6.7%
Under 1.5
21.7%
@ 3.28-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.47
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.96+5.7%
Under 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.79-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.01
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
@ 3.34+3.4%
Under 3.5
68.8%
@ 1.29-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.42
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.7%
@ 1.84+6.5%
No
43.3%
@ 1.86-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.85
No
Betfair
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.17+5.6%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.57+3.8%
1-0
8.8%@ 6.06+1.6%
2-0
8.2%@ 7.54+2.5%
0-0
7.1%@ 8.72+2.1%
1-2
6.6%@ 12.97+3.3%
0-1
5.8%@ 10.46+1.6%
2-2
5.5%@ 14.43+2.5%
Puskas Academy goals ↓
Kisvarda FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
5.8%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
8.8%
13%
6.6%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.5%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.6%
5.3%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Puskas Academy goals (down), columns = Kisvarda FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.09
Ferencvarosi TC
2.06
Paks
1.61
Debreceni VSC
1.61
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.39
Vasas
1.32
Budapest Honved
1.21
Kisvarda FC
1.21
Nyiregyhaza
1.21
Ujpest
1.21
MTK Budapest
1.15
Puskas Academy is 0.18 points better than Kisvarda FC in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.97
Paks
1.91
MTK Budapest
1.67
Debreceni VSC
1.55
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.48
Ujpest
1.45
Vasas
1.44
Nyiregyhaza
1.42
Budapest Honved
1.32
Puskas Academy
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.09
Puskas Academy is 0.21 goals better than Kisvarda FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.91
Ferencvarosi TC
0.94
Debreceni VSC
1.24
Puskas Academy
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Paks
1.39
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Vasas
1.56
Budapest Honved
1.70
Nyiregyhaza
1.73
Ujpest
1.73
MTK Budapest
1.88
Puskas Academy is 0.18 goals better than Kisvarda FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
55%
Ujpest
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE
51%
Debreceni VSC
50%
MTK Budapest
49%
Kisvarda FC
49%
Paks
47%
Puskas Academy
44%
Puskas Academy is 5.2 percentage points worse than Kisvarda FC in terms of average possession (44% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Puskas Academy
For 5.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 9.7 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kisvarda FC
For 3.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Puskas Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.4
3.8
3.5
4.0
28.1
27.3
28.8
vs Stronger (4)
9.5
11.0
9.0
3.5
3.0
3.7
33.0
32.0
33.3
vs Similar (38)
10.4
9.5
11.1
3.8
3.3
4.2
27.3
25.5
28.9
vs Weaker (8)
7.8
8.7
6.5
3.8
4.2
3.2
29.0
34.3
21.0
% over line
59%
50%
67%
50%
41%
57%
82%
67%
95%
% under line
41%
50%
33%
50%
59%
43%
18%
33%
5%
This opponent (Kisvarda FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kisvarda FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.1
8.8
2.2
2.3
2.0
24.0
22.9
25.3
vs Stronger (6)
11.0
11.7
10.0
3.3
3.0
4.0
25.8
25.0
27.0
vs Similar (44)
9.2
9.8
8.5
2.0
2.2
1.8
23.5
22.3
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
50%
26%
27%
25%
59%
53%
67%
% under line
44%
40%
50%
74%
73%
75%
41%
47%
33%
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.5
Ujpest
9.9
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Budapest Honved
9.7
Ferencvarosi TC
9.6
MTK Budapest
9.6
Debreceni VSC
9.5
Puskas Academy
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.2
Gyori ETO FC
9.2
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Debreceni VSC
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Paks
5.0
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.9
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.4
MTK Budapest
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.6
Debreceni VSC
28.1
Ferencvarosi TC
27.6
Puskas Academy
27.4
Ujpest
25.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.0
MTK Budapest
24.5
Gyori ETO FC
24.1
Kisvarda FC
23.8
Vasas
21.0
Budapest Honved
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.2%
@ 1.89-7.9%
Under 9.5
58.8%
@ 1.82+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.13
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Under
Unibet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.2%
Under 21.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Puskas Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.46
0.54
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.65
0.55
0.64
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kisvarda FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kisvarda FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.38
0.56
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.62
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kisvarda FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kisvarda FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kisvarda FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Puskas Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.85
0.65
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.70
0.64
0.73
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Kisvarda FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kisvarda FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.81
0.44
0.50
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.88
0.83
0.50
0.58
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kisvarda FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kisvarda FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kisvarda FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.4%
1.31
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
+9.1%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.3%
1.30
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.7%
1.52
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
+9.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gyori ETO FC
Vasas
MTK Budapest
Ujpest
Paks
Nyiregyhaza
Debreceni VSC
Ferencvarosi TC
Budapest Honved
Zalaegerszegi TE