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Qabala vs Kapaz Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
Qabala
Qabala
Vs
58%
25%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qabala win✓ Hit
58.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz win✗ Miss
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QabalaQabala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W02L31W40W30W11D12L12L01LA·IMI18/04H·MOI25/04A·KAR02/05H·CƏB08/05H·ZAQ15/05A·QAR22/05A·KAR15/08H·ZIR25/08A·ARA30/08A·TUR13/09← Birinci DastaPremyer Liqa →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.532.000.331.730.73
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.502.00--
vs Similar (21)1.810.382.000.001.670.67
vs Weaker (7)2.430.572.750.252.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L22D10W03L04L03L23L05L02LA·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05A·QAR18/05A·TUR25/05A·SUM17/08H·KAR23/08A·ZIR30/08H·ARA12/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.600.941.250.432.00
vs Stronger (19)0.681.790.901.500.442.11
vs Similar (11)0.731.271.000.830.401.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
3-0 ✓
6.7%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.9%
Qabala goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
01234
07.8%4.9%2.6%0.8%0.2%
111%12%4.7%1.4%0.3%
211%9.8%4.3%1.3%0.3%
36.7%5.9%2.6%0.8%0.2%
43.1%2.7%1.2%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qabala goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Qabala is 0.06 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 0.82).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Qabala is 0.24 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.76).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Qabala is 0.41 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D10W20W00D00D12L12L00DA·IMI18/04H·MOI25/04A·KAR02/05H·CƏB08/05H·ZAQ15/05A·QAR22/05A·KAR15/08H·ZIR25/08A·ARA30/08A·TUR13/09← Birinci DastaPremyer Liqa →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.231.000.200.530.27
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Similar (21)0.570.140.780.000.420.25
vs Weaker (7)1.430.141.750.001.000.33
Clean sheet %83% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D01L10W01L04L03L01L03L00DA·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05A·QAR18/05A·TUR25/05A·SUM17/08H·KAR23/08A·ZIR30/08H·ARA12/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.900.310.560.141.29
vs Stronger (19)0.211.050.300.800.111.33
vs Similar (11)0.270.640.330.170.201.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L21W20W30W11D00D00D01LA·IMI18/04H·MOI25/04A·KAR02/05H·CƏB08/05H·ZAQ15/05A·QAR22/05A·KAR15/08H·ZIR25/08A·ARA30/08A·TUR13/09← Birinci DastaPremyer Liqa →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.301.000.131.200.47
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.50--
vs Similar (21)1.240.241.220.001.250.42
vs Weaker (7)1.000.431.000.251.000.67
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L21W00D02L00D00D22D02L02LA·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05A·QAR18/05A·TUR25/05A·SUM17/08H·KAR23/08A·ZIR30/08H·ARA12/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.620.690.290.71
vs Stronger (19)0.470.740.600.700.330.78
vs Similar (11)0.450.640.670.670.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Qabala and Kapaz have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Qabala and Kapaz have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Qabala and Kapaz have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Qabala and Kapaz have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
QAB wins
3
Draws
3
KAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qabala vs Kapaz · H/A from QAB
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24HQAB Vs Kapaz0-1
23/02/24AKapaz Vs QAB2-1
09/12/23HQAB Vs Kapaz0-3
01/10/23AKapaz Vs QAB0-1
27/05/23HQAB Vs Kapaz1-1
24/01/23AKapaz Vs QAB2-2
22/10/22HQAB Vs Kapaz1-1
21/08/22AKapaz Vs QAB0-3

QabalaQabala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25ATuran Vs QAB1-0
30/08/25AAraz Vs QAB2-1
25/08/25HQAB Vs Zira1-2
15/08/25AKarvan Vs QAB1-1
22/05/25AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs QAB0-3
15/05/25HQAB Vs Zaqatala4-0
08/05/25HQAB Vs Cəbrayıl3-1
02/05/25AKarvan Vs QAB2-0
25/04/25HQAB Vs MOIK1-0
18/04/25AImisli FK Vs QAB1-0

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/25HKAP Vs Araz0-2
30/08/25AZira Vs KAP5-0
23/08/25HKAP Vs Karvan2-3
17/08/25ASumqayıt Vs KAP3-0
25/05/25ATuran Vs KAP4-0
18/05/25AQarabag Vs KAP3-0
11/05/25HKAP Vs Sumqayıt1-0
04/05/25ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-2
26/04/25HKAP Vs Zira0-1
20/04/25AŞamaxı FK Vs KAP2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.66
HomeWWWWL1.84
AwayLWDLL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals2.562.282.84
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %48%40%56%
Over 3.5 %28%24%32%
Scored1.621.601.64
Conceded0.940.681.20
BTTS34%20%48%
Clean Sheet48%64%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.84
HomeDLWLL1.08
AwayDLLLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals2.642.562.72
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %48%36%60%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored0.820.960.68
Conceded1.821.602.04
BTTS30%36%24%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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