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Qabala vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 05/11/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 0-2
Qabala
Qabala
Vs
24%
29%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qabala win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QabalaQabala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L12L02L10W22D12L10W01L14L00DA·ARA12/08H·SUM19/08A·NEF27/08H·ZIR02/09A·TUR17/09H·QAR25/09A·KAP01/10H·SƏB07/10H·ARA22/10A·SUM29/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.801.271.671.071.93
vs Stronger (14)1.002.291.001.711.002.86
vs Similar (16)1.311.381.501.621.121.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D20W10W01L11D10W02L42W01LA·BEŞ17/08A·SAB20/08H·QAB27/08A·SUM02/09A·ARA16/09A·ZIR23/09A·TUR30/09H·QAR08/10A·SƏB20/10H·SAB29/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.131.541.231.291.06
vs Stronger (5)1.002.401.003.001.001.50
vs Similar (11)1.181.001.750.250.861.43
vs Weaker (14)1.710.791.671.001.750.62
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
10.1%
0-2 ✓
9.4%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
6.0%
0-3
4.6%
Qabala goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
010%12%9.4%4.6%1.7%
17.3%14%9.1%4.4%1.6%
24.1%6.0%4.4%2.1%0.8%
31.3%1.9%1.4%0.7%0.3%
40.3%0.5%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qabala goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Qabala is 0.83 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Qabala is 0.58 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Qabala is 0.67 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L10W00D02L00D00D12L00DA·ARA12/08H·SUM19/08A·NEF27/08H·ZIR02/09A·TUR17/09H·QAR25/09A·KAP01/10H·SƏB07/10H·ARA22/10A·SUM29/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.670.530.470.80
vs Stronger (14)0.571.000.430.570.711.43
vs Similar (16)0.560.380.880.500.250.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W00D00D11D00D00D21W00DA·BEŞ17/08A·SAB20/08H·QAB27/08A·SUM02/09A·ARA16/09A·ZIR23/09A·TUR30/09H·QAR08/10A·SƏB20/10H·SAB29/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.620.540.530.65
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.331.331.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.640.641.000.000.431.00
vs Weaker (14)0.500.500.500.500.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L00D22D10W10W01L02L00DA·ARA12/08H·SUM19/08A·NEF27/08H·ZIR02/09A·TUR17/09H·QAR25/09A·KAP01/10H·SƏB07/10H·ARA22/10A·SUM29/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.130.601.130.601.13
vs Stronger (14)0.431.290.571.140.291.43
vs Similar (16)0.751.000.621.120.880.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W10W01L00D10W02L21W01LA·BEŞ17/08A·SAB20/08H·QAB27/08A·SUM02/09A·ARA16/09A·ZIR23/09A·TUR30/09H·QAR08/10A·SƏB20/10H·SAB29/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.920.690.760.41
vs Stronger (5)0.401.600.671.670.001.50
vs Similar (11)0.550.360.750.250.430.43
vs Weaker (14)1.210.291.170.501.250.12
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards81.7%--------
Under 3.577.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards71.8%--------
Over 1.571.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qabala's squad is €8m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qabala's attack is €3m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qabala's midfield is €2m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qabala's defence is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
QAB wins
1
Draws
3
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qabala vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from QAB
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/23ANeftchi Baku Vs QAB2-0
14/04/23ANeftchi Baku Vs QAB1-2
10/02/23HQAB Vs Neftchi Baku0-0
12/11/22ANeftchi Baku Vs QAB2-0
10/09/22HQAB Vs Neftchi Baku1-2

QabalaQabala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/23ASumqayıt Vs QAB0-0
22/10/23HQAB Vs Araz1-4
07/10/23HQAB Vs Səbail0-1
01/10/23AKapaz Vs QAB0-1
25/09/23HQAB Vs Qarabag1-2
17/09/23ATuran Vs QAB2-2
02/09/23HQAB Vs Zira1-0
27/08/23ANeftchi Baku Vs QAB2-0
19/08/23HQAB Vs Sumqayıt1-2
12/08/23AAraz Vs QAB2-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/23HNB Vs Sabah FA0-1
20/10/23ASəbail Vs NB2-4
08/10/23HNB Vs Qarabag0-2
30/09/23ATuran Vs NB0-1
23/09/23AZira Vs NB1-1
16/09/23AAraz Vs NB1-0
02/09/23ASumqayıt Vs NB0-1
27/08/23HNB Vs Qabala2-0
20/08/23ASabah FA Vs NB1-1
17/08/23ABeşiktaş Vs NB2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.22
HomeLWLLL1.36
AwayLLDWD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.682.562.80
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.181.201.16
Conceded1.501.361.64
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners10.0013.007.00
Cards6.006.00-
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.68
HomeLDWLL1.79
AwayWLDWW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%54%42%
AVG goals2.682.922.46
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %30%33%27%
Scored1.581.791.38
Conceded1.101.121.08
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet40%46%35%
Corners10.2511.509.00
Cards5.005.504.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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