The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.5 goals expected. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.3% chance. Home side Qabala, playing against a stronger opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded at home, while Sabah FA, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded. The favoured result is an away win, with probabilities of 31% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 45% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.5%), Under 6.5 (93.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.7%), Over 1.5 (86.8%), Under 5.5 (86.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.9%) and Away +2 handicap (84.7%). The recent form shows Qabala struggling after two straight defeats, while Sabah FA is coming off a win, adding context to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Sabah FA, failed to secure the win the model had predicted with a 45% probability. The match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s pick incorrect. The game saw a total of four goals, comfortably under the model’s expected 3.5 and the most likely scoreline of 1-1. The suggested picks all hit: Under 7.5 (97.5%), Under 6.5 (93.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.7%), Over 1.5 (86.8%), Under 5.5 (86.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.9%) and Away +2 handicap (84.7%). Qabala’s recent form, after two straight defeats, was not enough to break the stalemate, while Sabah FA, coming off a 5-2 win, could not convert their momentum into a victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Qabala win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA win✗ Miss
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Qabala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.62
1.25
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.30
0.80
1.60
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.12
1.25
1.25
1.22
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
0.67
4.00
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.87
1.73
0.73
2.13
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.00
1.25
2.17
1.17
1.83
1.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.89
0.61
1.44
0.44
2.33
0.78
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.0%
Under 2.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.3%
Under 3.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.0%
No
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.3%
2-2 ✓
6.9%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
5.6%
0-1
5.1%
2-3
4.3%
Qabala goals ↓
Sabah FA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
5.1%
5.7%
3.6%
1.7%
1
4.0%
10%
8.8%
5.6%
2.6%
2
3.9%
7.3%
6.9%
4.3%
2.1%
3
2.0%
3.8%
3.6%
2.3%
1.1%
4
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qabala goals (down), columns = Sabah FA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Qarabag
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Turan
2.00
Difai Ağsu
1.50
MOIK
1.50
Səbail
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.33
Zira
1.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
0.98
Goy-Gol
0.98
Şəki PFK
0.98
Kür-Araz
0.98
Xankəndi FK
0.98
Şirvan FK
0.98
Araz Saatlı
0.98
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Safa Baku
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Qabala is 0.50 points worse than Sabah FA in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.50
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
MOIK
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Difai Ağsu
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Ağstafa Gəncləri
1.46
Goy-Gol
1.46
Şəki PFK
1.46
Kür-Araz
1.46
Xankəndi FK
1.46
Şirvan FK
1.46
Araz Saatlı
1.46
Şəmkir
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Sumqayıt
1.00
Zira
1.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Qabala and Sabah FA are level in goals scored per game (both 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Qarabag
0.83
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Sabah FA
1.00
Zira
1.33
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
MOIK
2.00
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Turan
2.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
2.61
Goy-Gol
2.61
Şəki PFK
2.61
Kür-Araz
2.61
Xankəndi FK
2.61
Şirvan FK
2.61
Araz Saatlı
2.61
Şimal
3.00
Safa Baku
3.00
Karvan
3.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Qabala and Sabah FA are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Qabala or Draw✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied -
31%
24%
45%
covers Qabala + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qabala or Sabah FA✗ Miss
76.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
24%
45%
covers Qabala + Sabah FA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sabah FA✓ Hit
68.7%
Avg Implied -
31%
24%
45%
covers Draw + Sabah FA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Qabala over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Qabala, so a minus line means Qabala give that many goals of a start and Sabah FA receive them. At -1, Qabala must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Qabala win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Qabala)Actual: Sabah FA
Qabala -2
5.9%
Draw -2
9.4%
Sabah FA +2
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Qabala)Actual: Sabah FA
Qabala -1
15.3%
Draw -1
16.0%
Sabah FA +1
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Qabala)Actual: Qabala
Qabala +1
55.3%
Draw +1
19.5%
Sabah FA -1
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Qabala)Actual: Qabala
Qabala +2
74.8%
Draw +2
13.7%
Sabah FA -2
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qabala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.75
0.62
0.21
0.43
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.47
0.62
0.75
0.33
0.22
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.23
1.07
0.33
0.80
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.42
1.33
0.67
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.11
0.89
0.11
0.78
0.11
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qabala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.88
0.62
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.50
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.20
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
0.62
0.50
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
2.67
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
0.67
0.40
1.33
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.83
0.83
0.50
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.50
0.56
0.33
1.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →