Defensive solidity will set the tone as Qabala’s home form shows a modest 1.5 goals conceded per game, while Şəmaxı FK’s away side has been a nightmare for opponents, allowing only 0.17 goals on the road. The model favours an away win, with a 38 % chance of Şəmaxı triumphing, 33 % for a draw and 29 % for Qabala. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8 % probability. Şəmaxı’s 1.17 goals scored per game against similar opposition and Qabala’s 0.88 goals per match underline the low-scoring narrative. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 carries an 84.8 % probability. The suggested picks are Under 3.5 (84.8 %). The match is projected to be a defensive stalemate with a 1-1 outcome most probable, yet the odds favour Şəmaxı FK to edge out a win.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: Qabala snatched a 3-1 win, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite, Away win, which had a 38 % chance. The prediction was wrong, as the actual result was a Home win. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.8 % probability, also missed, as the match saw four goals. Qabala’s form, noted as “after 2 straight defeats” in their last five, shows a fragile start, yet they managed to secure victory. Şəməş FK, coming off a draw, had a 1.17 average goals scored and a 0.17 conceded, but could not convert that into a win. The final score of 3-1 confirms the home side’s triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Qabala win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Qabala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.19
1.56
0.93
1.36
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.77
1.00
1.71
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.25
0.88
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
1.00
1.38
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
1.44
1.11
1.33
0.43
1.57
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.85
0.86
1.43
1.17
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.1%
Under 1.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.2%
0-1
13.0%
1-0
10.7%
0-2
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
5.7%
Qabala goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.0%
2.9%
0.8%
1
11%
15%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
5.7%
6.3%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.8%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qabala goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Qabala is 0.27 points worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Qabala is 0.06 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Qabala is 0.23 goals worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qabala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.92
0.43
0.71
0.00
1.17
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.88
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.33
0.38
0.38
0.36
0.29
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.38
0.56
0.33
0.29
0.43
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.31
0.14
0.43
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qabala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.69
0.81
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.57
1.00
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.69
0.38
0.62
1.12
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
1.06
0.56
1.00
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.54
0.71
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
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Sabah FA
Qarabag
Neftchi Baku
Turan
Zira
Araz
Sumqayıt
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Karvan
Mingəçevir