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Qarabag vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 23/01/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Qarabag
Qarabag
Vs
69%
20%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qarabag win✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-771W01L31W21W22D30W61W21W20W10WH·KAP04/11H·BAY09/11H·SƏB12/11A·SAB24/11A·MOL30/11H·QAB04/12A·SUM08/12H·BK 14/12H·NEF18/12A·ZIR24/12
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.002.190.621.931.43
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.001.001.005.00
vs Similar (8)1.621.001.500.501.751.50
vs Weaker (20)2.400.802.640.642.111.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D41W21W02L01L11D11D00D20W13LA·SAB07/10A·QAB22/10H·QAR30/10A·SUM04/11H·KAP10/11A·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.971.600.531.731.40
vs Stronger (2)1.501.502.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (21)1.761.001.700.501.821.45
vs Weaker (7)1.430.711.250.501.671.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.5%
3-0
8.9%
3-1 ✓
7.1%
0-0
5.8%
4-0
5.0%
Qarabag goals ↓
Araz goals →
01234
05.8%3.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%
110.0%9.5%3.5%0.9%0.2%
212%9.6%3.8%1.0%0.2%
38.9%7.1%2.8%0.8%0.2%
45.0%4.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Qarabag is 1.31 points better than Araz in terms of average points per game (2.31 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Qarabag is 1.83 goals better than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Qarabag is 0.36 goals better than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W00D20W00D10W10W31W20W00D10WH·KAP04/11H·BAY09/11H·SƏB12/11A·SAB24/11A·MOL30/11H·QAB04/12A·SUM08/12H·BK 14/12H·NEF18/12A·ZIR24/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.301.120.120.930.50
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (8)0.380.000.500.000.250.00
vs Weaker (20)1.350.301.450.181.220.44
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W00D01L00D01L10W00D10W02LA·SAB07/10A·QAB22/10H·QAR30/10A·SUM04/11H·KAP10/11A·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.400.530.070.870.73
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.760.480.600.100.910.82
vs Weaker (7)0.710.140.500.001.000.33
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L11D21W12L20W30W01L20W00DH·KAP04/11H·BAY09/11H·SƏB12/11A·SAB24/11A·MOL30/11H·QAB04/12A·SUM08/12H·BK 14/12H·NEF18/12A·ZIR24/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.701.060.501.000.93
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (8)1.251.001.000.501.501.50
vs Weaker (20)1.050.501.180.450.890.56
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W21W01L01L10W01L00D10W11DA·SAB07/10A·QAB22/10H·QAR30/10A·SUM04/11H·KAP10/11A·NEF26/11H·SƏB02/12A·ZIR09/12H·SAB15/12A·TUR24/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.571.070.470.870.67
vs Stronger (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.000.521.100.400.910.64
vs Weaker (7)0.710.570.750.500.670.67
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira50%
Yassine Benzia18%
Abdellah Zoubir18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Redon Xhixha14%
Matheus Silva12%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Toral Bayramov9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Júlio Romão56%
Kevin Medina43%
Marko Vešović33%
Redon Xhixha29%
Juninho Vieira20%
Patrick Andrade20%
Elvin Cafarquliyev20%
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Janković18%
Matheus Silva12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Andrey Lunev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Vešović17%
Hamidou Keyta14%
Bədavi Huseynov11%
Juninho Vieira10%
Patrick Andrade10%
Elvin Cafarquliyev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira30%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Yassine Benzia0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qarabag's squad is €19m more valuable than Araz's (€25m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qarabag's attack is €5m more valuable than Araz's (€8m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qarabag's midfield is €2m more valuable than Araz's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qarabag's defence is €12m more valuable than Araz's (€14m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
QAR wins
0
Draws
1
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qarabag vs Araz · H/A from QAR
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/23AAraz Vs QAR2-1
20/08/23HQAR Vs Araz2-1

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/12/23AZira Vs QAR0-1
18/12/23HQAR Vs Neftchi Baku2-0
14/12/23HQAR Vs BK Hacken2-1
08/12/23ASumqayıt Vs QAR1-6
04/12/23HQAR Vs Qabala3-0
30/11/23AMolde Vs QAR2-2
24/11/23ASabah FA Vs QAR1-2
12/11/23HQAR Vs Səbail3-1
09/11/23HQAR Vs Bayer Leverkusen0-1
04/11/23HQAR Vs Kapaz7-1

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/12/23ATuran Vs ARA3-1
15/12/23HARA Vs Sabah FA2-0
09/12/23AZira Vs ARA0-0
02/12/23HARA Vs Səbail1-1
26/11/23ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA1-1
10/11/23HARA Vs Kapaz0-1
04/11/23ASumqayıt Vs ARA2-0
30/10/23HARA Vs Qarabag2-1
22/10/23AQabala Vs ARA1-4
07/10/23ASabah FA Vs ARA1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.10
HomeLWWWW2.19
AwayLWDWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%65%62%
AVG goals3.042.883.21
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %62%58%67%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored2.122.192.04
Conceded0.920.691.17
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet36%38%33%
Corners8.759.508.00
Cards4.754.754.75
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDWL2.07
HomeWWLDW2.39
AwayWLDDL1.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %63%74%52%
AVG goals2.832.832.83
Over 1.5 %83%83%83%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %24%30%17%
Scored1.932.221.65
Conceded0.890.611.17
BTTS48%35%61%
Clean Sheet41%57%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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