Qarabag vs Araz Prediction & Stats

Date: 06/09/2026

Time: 16:15

Qarabag

82%

13%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Araz

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 13 Player market rates 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Qarabag’s form at home is a clear driver of the model’s confidence, with an 82% chance of victory and a 13% draw probability, leaving only a 5% chance for Araz to win. The model’s pick is a home win, underscoring the advantage of Qarabag’s 4.0 average goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Araz struggles away, averaging 0.5 scored and 5.5 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Qarabag, a 11.4% probability. The match’s total goals most likely at 3, with a 21% chance. Suggested picks include “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 99.5%, “Away under 3.5 goals” 99.4%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” 98.9%, “Home +2 handicap” 98.5%, “Under 7.5” 96.8% with a 4% edge, “Away under 2.5 goals” 96.6% with a 3% edge, “Away under 1.5 HT goals” 96.1%, and “Away under 1.5 2H goals” 95.2%. The model’s overall assessment highlights Qarabag’s dominant home form and Araz’s recent struggles, making a decisive home win the most probable outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qarabag win

82.1%

Avg Implied 79.8% · @ 1.14

Edge

+2.2%

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.16

William Hil

1.15

Pinnacle

1.14

Bet365

1.14

Dafabet

1.14

Draw

12.5%

Avg Implied 13.9% · @ 6.53

Edge

-1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

7.12

Betfair

7.00

1xBet

6.50

Marathonbet

6.50

Bet365

6.50

Araz win

5.4%

Avg Implied 6.3% · @ 14.48

Edge

-0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Marathonbet

15.50

1xBet

15.50

Bet365

15.00

William Hil

15.00

Dafabet

14.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Qarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.2

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.97	1.17	2.54	1.31	1.53	1.06
vs Stronger (2)	1.50	4.50	1.00	6.00	2.00	3.00
vs Similar (10)	1.00	1.10	1.33	1.33	0.50	0.75
vs Weaker (18)	2.56	0.83	4.00	0.50	1.83	1.00
Clean sheet %	37% (+5pp vs league)

This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.5

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

1.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.13	1.83	1.12	1.24	1.15	2.62
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	5.50	-	-	0.50	5.50
vs Similar (22)	1.05	1.91	0.92	1.58	1.20	2.30
vs Weaker (6)	1.67	0.33	1.60	0.40	2.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	27% (-5pp vs league)

This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.5

88.3%

@ 1.12+6.5%

Under 1.5

11.7%

@ 5.03-6.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

1.12

1xBet

1.12

Bet365

1.12

Under

Bet365

5.50

Marathonbet

4.80

1xBet

4.80

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

70.4%

@ 1.44+6.7%

Under 2.5

29.6%

@ 2.53-6.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.46

1xBet

1.44

Marathonbet

1.44

Bet365

1.44

Betfair

1.44

Under

Betfair

2.70

Bet365

2.62

Pinnacle

2.55

Betano

2.45

Marathonbet

2.43

Over/Under 3.5

Over 3.5

49.3%

@ 2.10+5.3%

Under 3.5

50.7%

@ 1.64-5.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.20

Marathonbet

2.13

1xBet

2.13

Betano

2.02

Bet365

2.00

Under

Bet365

1.73

Pinnacle

1.63

Marathonbet

1.62

Betano

1.62

1xBet

1.62

Both teams to score

Yes

48.0%

@ 2.23+6.8%

52.0%

@ 1.56-6.8%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

1xBet

2.29

Marathonbet

2.29

William Hil

2.25

Bet365

2.20

Betano

2.12

Bet365

1.62

William Hil

1.57

Betano

1.57

1xBet

1.53

Marathonbet

1.51

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

2-0

11.4%@ 5.79+4.1%

3-0

11.2%@ 6.26+4.4%

4-0

8.3%@ 8.40+3.2%

2-1

7.9%@ 9.02+3.2%

3-1

7.8%@ 10.15+3.6%

1-0

7.2%@ 7.50+1.6%

1-1

5.9%@ 11.40+2.2%

4-1

5.7%@ 13.70+2.6%

Qarabag goals ↓

	Araz goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	1.3%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	7.2%	5.9%	1.9%	0.4%	0.1%
2	11%	7.9%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%
3	11%	7.8%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%
4	8.3%	5.7%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Sabah FA

2.36

Qarabag

2.09

Neftchi Baku

1.79

Turan

1.79

Zira

1.61

Araz

1.39

Sumqayıt

1.19

Şamaxı FK

1.15

Safa Baku

1.09

Imisli FK

1.06

Qabala

0.88

Kapaz

0.82

Qarabag is 0.70 points better than Araz in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Sabah FA

2.27

Qarabag

2.15

Neftchi Baku

1.73

Araz

1.33

Turan

1.33

Sumqayıt

1.31

Zira

1.30

Safa Baku

1.02

Qabala

1.00

Şamaxı FK

0.94

Kapaz

0.76

Imisli FK

0.72

Qarabag is 0.82 goals better than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (2.15 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Sabah FA

0.76

Qarabag

0.82

Turan

0.82

Neftchi Baku

0.97

Zira

1.09

Şamaxı FK

1.21

Imisli FK

1.25

Qabala

1.44

Sumqayıt

1.53

Safa Baku

1.57

Araz

1.76

Kapaz

1.85

Qarabag is 0.94 goals better than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Qarabag or Draw

94.6%

Avg Implied 91.5% · @ 1.02

Edge

+3.1%

82%

13%

covers Qarabag + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.03

Betfair

1.02

William Hil

1.02

1xBet

1.02

Bet365

1.01

Qarabag or Araz

87.5%

Avg Implied 87.5% · @ 1.07

Edge

-0.1%

82%

13%

covers Qarabag + Araz

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.10

Betano

1.09

Bet365

1.07

Betfair

1.06

1xBet

1.04

Draw or Araz

17.9%

Avg Implied 20.9% · @ 4.46

Edge

-3.0%

82%

13%

covers Draw + Araz

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

5.00

William Hil

4.80

Marathonbet

4.60

1xBet

4.60

Bet365

4.33

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Qarabag over/under 0.5

Over

94.7%

@ 1.03+3.4%

Under

5.3%

@ 10.83-3.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.04

Betfair

1.03

1xBet

1.01

Under

1xBet

13.00

Betfair

10.50

Bet365

9.00

Qarabag over/under 1.5

Over

79.2%

@ 1.24+4.7%

Under

20.8%

@ 3.62-4.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.25

1xBet

1.25

Marathonbet

1.23

Betfair

1.22

Under

Bet365

3.75

Betfair

3.75

1xBet

3.55

Marathonbet

3.42

Qarabag over/under 2.5

Over

56.4%

@ 1.75+3.4%

Under

43.6%

@ 1.98-3.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.80

Marathonbet

1.77

Betano

1.75

1xBet

1.73

Bet365

1.73

Under

Betfair

2.00

Bet365

2.00

1xBet

2.00

Betano

1.98

Pinnacle

1.95

Qarabag over/under 3.5

Over

34.0%

@ 2.91+2.4%

Under

66.0%

@ 1.35-2.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

3.10

Betfair

3.00

Marathonbet

2.79

Bet365

2.75

Under

Bet365

1.40

Marathonbet

1.34

Betfair

1.33

1xBet

1.32

Araz over/under 0.5

Over

50.1%

@ 2.17+7.4%

Under

49.9%

@ 1.61-7.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.29

1xBet

2.25

Marathonbet

2.16

Betano

2.10

Bet365

2.10

Under

Betfair

1.67

Bet365

1.67

Betano

1.65

Marathonbet

1.57

1xBet

1.57

Araz over/under 1.5

Over

15.4%

@ 6.60+1.3%

Under

84.6%

@ 1.08-1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

7.40

1xBet

6.50

Bet365

6.50

Betfair

6.00

Under

Betfair

1.10

Bet365

1.10

1xBet

1.08

Marathonbet

1.05

Araz over/under 2.5

Over

3.4%

@ 15.00-3.0%

Under

96.6%

@ 1.01+3.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

15.00

Under

Bet365

1.01

Araz over/under 3.5

Over

0.6%

Under

99.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Qarabag, so a minus line means Qarabag give that many goals of a start and Araz receive them. At -1, Qarabag must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Qarabag win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Qarabag)

Qarabag -2

42.3%

@ 2.21+2.0%

Draw -2

21.4%

@ 3.88-1.5%

Araz +2

36.3%

@ 2.43-0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

2.30

Bet365

2.20

Marathonbet

2.12

Draw

Bet365

4.00

Marathonbet

3.88

Betfair

3.75

Away

Bet365

2.50

Betfair

2.40

Marathonbet

2.38

Handicap -1 (Qarabag)

Qarabag -1

63.7%

@ 1.49+3.2%

Draw -1

18.3%

@ 4.28-2.7%

Araz +1

17.9%

@ 4.87-0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.50

Betfair

1.50

Marathonbet

1.46

Draw

Bet365

4.50

Betfair

4.20

Marathonbet

4.15

Away

Bet365

5.00

Betfair

5.00

Marathonbet

4.60

Handicap +1 (Qarabag)

Qarabag +1

94.6%

@ 1.03+2.5%

Draw +1

3.9%

@ 17.00-1.7%

Araz -1

1.5%

@ 41.00-0.8%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.03

Draw

Bet365

17.00

Away

Bet365

41.00

Handicap +2 (Qarabag)

Qarabag +2

98.5%

Draw +2

1.2%

Araz -2

0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

No market prices yet.

Draw

No market prices yet.

Away

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Qarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.9

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.77	0.60	0.92	0.77	0.65	0.47
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	3.50	0.00	5.00	0.00	2.00
vs Similar (10)	0.20	0.40	0.33	0.50	0.00	0.25
vs Weaker (18)	1.17	0.39	1.67	0.33	0.92	0.42
Clean sheet %	60% (+29pp vs league)

This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.0

Avg scored

0.3

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.50	0.80	0.59	0.35	0.38	1.38
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	2.50	-	-	0.00	2.50
vs Similar (22)	0.45	0.82	0.50	0.42	0.40	1.30
vs Weaker (6)	0.83	0.17	0.80	0.20	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+22pp vs league)

This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5

Over 0.5

80.7%

@ 1.23+5.8%

Under 0.5

19.3%

@ 3.66-5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.25

Marathonbet

1.25

Bet365

1.22

William Hil

1.22

Betfair

1.20

Under

Betfair

4.00

Bet365

4.00

William Hil

3.75

Marathonbet

3.28

1xBet

3.28

Half Time Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.5

48.3%

@ 2.11+4.4%

Under 1.5

51.7%

@ 1.64-4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.16

1xBet

2.16

Pinnacle

2.15

William Hil

2.10

Betfair

2.10

Under

Bet365

1.73

William Hil

1.67

Betfair

1.67

Pinnacle

1.64

1xBet

1.60

Half Time Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

18.9%

@ 4.49-1.6%

Under 2.5

81.1%

@ 1.16+1.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

4.60

1xBet

4.50

Marathonbet

4.50

Betfair

4.50

Bet365

4.33

Under

Bet365

1.20

William Hil

1.17

Betfair

1.17

Marathonbet

1.13

1xBet

1.13

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Qarabag over/under 0.5 HT

Over

73.1%

@ 1.29+1.2%

Under

26.9%

@ 3.30-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.29

Under

1xBet

3.30

Qarabag over/under 1.5 HT

Over

34.9%

@ 2.58-0.9%

Under

65.1%

@ 1.44+0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.60

Marathonbet

2.60

Pinnacle

2.57

Betano

2.57

Under

Pinnacle

1.46

Betano

1.45

1xBet

1.44

Marathonbet

1.40

Qarabag over/under 2.5 HT

Over

14.1%

@ 7.00+0.8%

Under

85.9%

@ 1.07-0.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

7.00

Under

1xBet

1.07

Araz over/under 0.5 HT

Over

24.6%

@ 3.87+0.9%

Under

75.4%

@ 1.20-0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.10

1xBet

3.75

Betano

3.75

Under

Betano

1.23

1xBet

1.20

Marathonbet

1.17

Araz over/under 1.5 HT

Over

3.9%

Under

96.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Araz over/under 2.5 HT

Over

0.5%

Under

99.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Qarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.3

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.20	0.57	1.62	0.54	0.88	0.59
vs Stronger (2)	1.50	1.00	1.00	1.00	2.00	1.00
vs Similar (10)	0.80	0.70	1.00	0.83	0.50	0.50
vs Weaker (18)	1.39	0.44	2.33	0.17	0.92	0.58
Clean sheet %	63% (+32pp vs league)

This opponent (Araz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Araz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.63	1.03	0.53	0.88	0.77	1.23
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	3.00	-	-	0.50	3.00
vs Similar (22)	0.59	1.09	0.42	1.17	0.80	1.00
vs Weaker (6)	0.83	0.17	0.80	0.20	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	33% (+2pp vs league)

This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5

Over 0.5

86.9%

@ 1.13+5.2%

Under 0.5

13.1%

@ 5.03-5.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.17

Bet365

1.14

Marathonbet

1.10

1xBet

1.10

Under

Bet365

5.50

Marathonbet

5.00

1xBet

5.00

William Hil

4.60

Second Half Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.5

53.5%

@ 1.68-1.5%

Under 1.5

46.5%

@ 2.06+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.80

Bet365

1.67

1xBet

1.65

Marathonbet

1.65

Betano

1.62

Under

Betano

2.12

Bet365

2.10

Marathonbet

2.08

1xBet

2.08

William Hil

1.91

Second Half Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

34.3%

@ 3.04+4.2%

Under 2.5

65.7%

@ 1.31-4.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

3.40

Bet365

3.00

Marathonbet

2.88

1xBet

2.88

Under

Bet365

1.36

Marathonbet

1.32

1xBet

1.32

William Hil

1.25

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Qarabag over/under 0.5 2H

Over

80.0%

@ 1.20+3.1%

Under

20.0%

@ 4.00-3.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.20

Under

1xBet

4.00

Qarabag over/under 1.5 2H

Over

47.7%

@ 1.96+0.8%

Under

52.3%

@ 1.73-0.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.00

Marathonbet

1.92

Under

1xBet

1.73

Marathonbet

1.73

Qarabag over/under 2.5 2H

Over

23.5%

@ 4.10+1.2%

Under

76.5%

@ 1.18-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

4.10

Under

1xBet

1.18

Araz over/under 0.5 2H

Over

30.0%

@ 3.24+1.7%

Under

70.0%

@ 1.28-1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

3.28

1xBet

3.20

Under

1xBet

1.30

Marathonbet

1.26

Araz over/under 1.5 2H

Over

4.8%

Under

95.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Araz over/under 2.5 2H

Over

1.1%

Under

98.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals	99.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away under 3.5 goals	99.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away under 2.5 2H goals	98.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Home +2 handicap	98.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 7.5	96.8%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	+4.0%
Away under 2.5 goals	96.6%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals	96.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away under 1.5 2H goals	95.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Home over 0.5 goals	94.7%	1.03	Bet365 1.04	Betfair 1.03	1xBet 1.01	-	-	+3.4%
Home or Draw	94.6%	1.02	Betano 1.03	Betfair 1.02	William Hil 1.02	1xBet 1.02	Bet365 1.01	+3.1%
Home +1 handicap	94.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.5%
Under 6.5	92.4%	1.04	1xBet 1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	+2.7%
Over 1.5	88.3%	1.12	Marathonbet 1.12	1xBet 1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	+6.5%
Home or Away	87.5%	1.07	William Hil 1.10	Betano 1.09	Bet365 1.07	Betfair 1.06	1xBet 1.04	-0.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals	86.9%	1.13	William Hil 1.17	Bet365 1.14	Marathonbet 1.10	1xBet 1.10	-	+5.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals	85.9%	1.07	1xBet 1.07	-	-	-	-	-0.8%
Away under 1.5 goals	84.6%	1.08	Betfair 1.10	Bet365 1.10	1xBet 1.08	Marathonbet 1.05	-	-1.3%
Under 5.5	83.9%	1.09	Bet365 1.12	1xBet 1.07	Marathonbet 1.07	-	-	-0.3%
Home win	82.1%	1.14	Betano 1.16	William Hil 1.15	Pinnacle 1.14	Bet365 1.14	Dafabet 1.14	+2.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals	81.1%	1.16	Bet365 1.20	William Hil 1.17	Betfair 1.17	Marathonbet 1.13	1xBet 1.13	+1.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals	80.7%	1.23	1xBet 1.25	Marathonbet 1.25	Bet365 1.22	William Hil 1.22	Betfair 1.20	+5.8%
Home over 0.5 2H goals	80.0%	1.20	1xBet 1.20	-	-	-	-	+3.1%
Home over 1.5 goals	79.2%	1.24	Bet365 1.25	1xBet 1.25	Marathonbet 1.23	Betfair 1.22	-	+4.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals	76.5%	1.18	1xBet 1.18	-	-	-	-	-1.2%
Away under 0.5 HT goals	75.4%	1.20	Betano 1.23	1xBet 1.20	Marathonbet 1.17	-	-	-0.9%
Home over 0.5 HT goals	73.1%	1.29	1xBet 1.29	-	-	-	-	+1.2%
Over 2.5	70.4%	1.44	Pinnacle 1.46	1xBet 1.44	Marathonbet 1.44	Bet365 1.44	Betfair 1.44	+6.7%
Away under 0.5 2H goals	70.0%	1.28	1xBet 1.30	Marathonbet 1.26	-	-	-	-1.7%

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag · 2025/26

Anytime goalscorer

Matches in which the player scored

Camilo Durán40%

Leandro Andrade36%

Marko Janković18%

Abdellah Zoubir17%

Elvin Jafarguliyev17%

Musa Qurbanlı12%

Oleksiy Kashchuk11%

Bahlul Mustafazada9%

Matheus Silva8%

Kevin Medina8%

Emmanuel Addai8%

Toral Bayramov0%

Kady Borges0%

Joni Montiel0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Pedro Bicalho0%

Dani Bolt0%

Nariman Akhundzade0%

To be booked (yellow)

Matches in which the player was booked

Matheus Silva33%

Kevin Medina25%

Marko Janković18%

Pedro Bicalho17%

Nariman Akhundzade12%

Toral Bayramov11%

Camilo Durán10%

Abdellah Zoubir0%

Kady Borges0%

Joni Montiel0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Bahlul Mustafazada0%

Elvin Jafarguliyev0%

Oleksiy Kashchuk0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Musa Qurbanlı0%

Leandro Andrade0%

Dani Bolt0%

Emmanuel Addai0%

Anytime assist

Matches in which the player assisted

Nariman Akhundzade25%

Joni Montiel20%

Marko Janković18%

Leandro Andrade18%

Abdellah Zoubir17%

Kady Borges12%

Camilo Durán10%

Bahlul Mustafazada9%

Matheus Silva8%

Elvin Jafarguliyev8%

Toral Bayramov0%

Kevin Medina0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Oleksiy Kashchuk0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Musa Qurbanlı0%

Pedro Bicalho0%

Dani Bolt0%

Emmanuel Addai0%

Over 2.5 shots

Matches with 3+ shots taken

Camilo Durán20%

Abdellah Zoubir17%

Emmanuel Addai8%

Toral Bayramov0%

Kady Borges0%

Matheus Silva0%

Marko Janković0%

Kevin Medina0%

Joni Montiel0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Bahlul Mustafazada0%

Elvin Jafarguliyev0%

Oleksiy Kashchuk0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Musa Qurbanlı0%

Leandro Andrade0%

Pedro Bicalho0%

Dani Bolt0%

Nariman Akhundzade0%

Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (25)

€25m

SF (24)

€17m

NB (23)

€13m

ZIR (23)

€12m

TUR (23)

€10m

SUM (22)

€9m

IF (18)

€6m

ARA (19)

€6m

KAP (24)

€5m

QAB (18)

€5m

SB (15)

€4m

ŞF (15)

€4m

Qarabag's squad is €19m more valuable than Araz's (€25m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (9)

€8m

ZIR (10)

€6m

SF (7)

€5m

NB (7)

€4m

SUM (7)

€4m

TUR (7)

€3m

IF (7)

€3m

ARA (7)

€3m

SB (5)

€1m

QAB (5)

€1m

ŞF (6)

€1m

KAP (8)

€1m

Qarabag's attack is €5m more valuable than Araz's (€8m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SF (7)

€5m

QAR (3)

€3m

NB (6)

€3m

SUM (4)

€2m

TUR (4)

€2m

ARA (5)

€2m

KAP (6)

€2m

ŞF (3)

€1m

ZIR (3)

€1m

QAB (3)

€1m

IF (2)

€1m

SB (2)

€0m

Qarabag's midfield is €2m more valuable than Araz's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (13)

€14m

SF (10)

€7m

NB (10)

€6m

ZIR (10)

€6m

TUR (12)

€5m

SUM (11)

€4m

IF (9)

€3m

QAB (10)

€3m

KAP (10)

€3m

SB (8)

€3m

ARA (7)

€2m

ŞF (6)

€2m

Qarabag's defence is €12m more valuable than Araz's (€14m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

QAR wins

Draws

ARA wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qarabag vs Araz · H/A from QAR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
08/03/26	H	QAR Vs Araz	6-0
14/12/25	H	QAR Vs Araz	5-1
21/09/25	A	Araz Vs QAR	0-5
11/05/25	H	QAR Vs Araz	2-0
23/04/25	H	QAR Vs Araz	3-0
02/04/25	A	Araz Vs QAR	1-0
08/03/25	A	Araz Vs QAR	1-3
22/12/24	H	QAR Vs Araz	2-0

Qarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
31/08/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs QAR	0-1
27/08/26	H	QAR Vs Twente	1-2
20/08/26	A	Twente Vs QAR	0-1
17/08/26	H	QAR Vs Şamaxı FK	3-1
13/08/26	H	QAR Vs Dynamo Kyiv	2-0
06/08/26	A	Dynamo Kyiv Vs QAR	1-0
30/07/26	A	CSKA Sofia Vs QAR	0-0
23/07/26	H	QAR Vs CSKA Sofia	0-0
16/07/26	A	Vestri Vs QAR	0-3
22/05/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs QAR	3-4

Araz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
31/08/26	H	ARA Vs Sabah FA	0-1
23/08/26	A	Neftchi Baku Vs ARA	5-0
15/08/26	H	ARA Vs Imisli FK	0-0
23/05/26	H	ARA Vs Zira	3-2
15/05/26	H	ARA Vs Kapaz	2-0
09/05/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs ARA	2-1
02/05/26	H	ARA Vs Imisli FK	0-1
25/04/26	A	Qabala Vs ARA	1-1
17/04/26	H	ARA Vs Turan	0-3
11/04/26	A	Neftchi Baku Vs ARA	2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qarabag

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWWLW	1.74
Home	WDWWL	2.00
Away	WDLWW	1.48

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	52%	60%	44%
AVG goals	3.14	3.36	2.92
Over 1.5 %	76%	80%	72%
Over 2.5 %	60%	60%	60%
Over 3.5 %	36%	44%	28%
Scored	1.86	2.24	1.48
Conceded	1.28	1.12	1.44
BTTS	52%	44%	60%
Clean Sheet	36%	48%	24%
Corners	10.42	8.67	12.17
Cards	3.57	3.29	3.86

Araz

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWDLL	1.24
Home	LWWDL	1.50
Away	WLDLL	0.96

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	32%	42%	21%
AVG goals	2.78	2.46	3.12
Over 1.5 %	80%	73%	88%
Over 2.5 %	50%	42%	58%
Over 3.5 %	30%	23%	38%
Scored	1.08	1.12	1.04
Conceded	1.70	1.35	2.08
BTTS	48%	38%	58%
Clean Sheet	26%	31%	21%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Zira	3	9	100%	3.0	6	1	+5	2.3	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	12	6	1	6	2.0	0.3	-
2	Neftchi Baku	3	6	67%	2.0	8	2	+6	3.3	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	13	4	3	6	2.7	0.7	-
3	Qarabag	2	6	100%	3.0	4	1	+3	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	25	8	3	14	2.0	0.5	-
4	Sabah FA	2	6	100%	3.0	3	0	+3	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	17	5	5	7	1.5	0.0	-
5	Turan	3	4	33%	1.3	1	1	+0	0.7	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	3	2	5	0.3	0.3	-
6	Imisli FK	3	4	33%	1.3	2	3	-1	1.7	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	1	3	0.7	1.0	-
7	Kapaz	2	3	50%	1.5	1	2	-1	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	2	3	0.5	1.0	-
8	Safa Baku	3	3	33%	1.0	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	0	3	0.3	1.0	-
9	Şamaxı FK	3	2	0%	0.7	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	1	2	0.3	1.0	-
10	Qabala	3	1	0%	0.3	0	2	-2	0.7	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	1	3	0.0	0.7	-
11	Araz	3	1	0%	0.3	0	6	-6	2.0	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	2	2	0.0	2.0	-
12	Sumqayıt	2	0	0%	0.0	1	4	-3	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	9	4	2	4	0.5	2.0	-

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches

Qarabag vs Araz Prediction & Stats

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Qarabag

Araz

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Qarabag

Araz

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Qarabag

Araz

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

🎽 13. Player market rates

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Qarabag

Araz

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature