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Qarabag vs Imisli FK Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
Qarabag
Qarabag
Vs
64%
24%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Imisli FK
Imisli FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Qarabag enter the match as the clear favourite, with the model rating a 64 % chance of a home win, 24 % for a draw and 12 % for an away win. The prediction favours a 1-0 victory for the hosts, a 13.8 % probability that the scoreline will be exactly that. The average number of goals expected is 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals at 27 %. Qarabag’s home form is strong against weaker opposition, scoring an average of 3.22 goals and conceding only 0.56. Imisli FK, playing away against a stronger side, averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks are Under 3.5 goals at 75.2 % and Over 1.5 goals at 72.8 %. The recent form narrative shows Qarabag on a three-game winning run, while Imisli FK has just come off a defeat. All figures are presented exactly as required.

Results analysis

The win extends Qarabag’s three-game winning run, cementing the home side’s dominant form. The model called a Home win with a 64% probability, and that prediction proved correct as Qarabag triumphed 3-0 over Imisli FK. The expected total of 2.5 goals was surpassed, with the final tally of three goals. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 3.5, with a 75.2% chance, hit, and Over 1.5, at 72.8%, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 2-0, at 13.6%, did not materialise, but the overall outcome matched the forecast. Qarabag’s performance and the model’s accuracy reinforce the credibility of the prediction engine.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qarabag win✓ Hit
64.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK win✗ Miss
12.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L22D70W00D01L12L51W12L21W11DA·KAP20/03H·SAB03/04H·KAR06/04A·ŞAM11/04H·SAB18/04A·SAB22/04A·NEF26/04A·NEF30/04H·TUR04/05A·QAB09/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.572.671.531.401.60
vs Stronger (4)1.254.751.505.001.004.50
vs Similar (6)1.672.002.002.001.002.00
vs Weaker (20)2.300.803.220.561.551.00
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Imisli FKImisli FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D00D05L06L11D10W10W02L10W00DA·TUR01/03A·ŞAM08/03H·SAB14/03A·NEF20/03H·TUR07/04A·QAB12/04A·KAP19/04H·SUM25/04A·ARA02/05H·ZIR08/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.270.621.461.061.12
vs Stronger (11)0.551.910.331.830.802.00
vs Similar (19)1.050.890.861.141.170.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.8%
2-0
13.6%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
3-0 ✓
8.4%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.4%
Qarabag goals ↓
Imisli FK goals →
01234
09.0%4.4%1.8%0.4%0.1%
114%11%3.4%0.8%0.1%
214%9.3%3.1%0.7%0.1%
38.4%5.7%1.9%0.4%0.1%
43.9%2.6%0.9%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Imisli FK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Qarabag is 1.03 points better than Imisli FK in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Qarabag is 1.43 goals better than Imisli FK in terms of goals scored per game (2.15 vs 0.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Qarabag is 0.43 goals better than Imisli FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D50W00D01L00D31W00D00D10WA·KAP20/03H·SAB03/04H·KAR06/04A·ŞAM11/04H·SAB18/04A·SAB22/04A·NEF26/04A·NEF30/04H·TUR04/05A·QAB09/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.771.000.800.600.73
vs Stronger (4)0.252.500.503.000.002.00
vs Similar (6)0.500.670.501.000.500.00
vs Weaker (20)1.000.451.330.220.730.64
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Imisli FKImisli FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D03L03L10W10W10W01L10W00DA·TUR01/03A·ŞAM08/03H·SAB14/03A·NEF20/03H·TUR07/04A·QAB12/04A·KAP19/04H·SUM25/04A·ARA02/05H·ZIR08/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.310.540.470.47
vs Stronger (11)0.180.640.170.500.200.80
vs Similar (19)0.530.420.430.570.580.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W00D00D12L20W12L21W01LA·KAP20/03H·SAB03/04H·KAR06/04A·ŞAM11/04H·SAB18/04A·SAB22/04A·NEF26/04A·NEF30/04H·TUR04/05A·QAB09/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.801.670.730.800.87
vs Stronger (4)1.002.251.002.001.002.50
vs Similar (6)1.171.331.501.000.502.00
vs Weaker (20)1.300.351.890.330.820.36
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Imisli FKImisli FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L03L01L00D00D01L00D00DA·TUR01/03A·ŞAM08/03H·SAB14/03A·NEF20/03H·TUR07/04A·QAB12/04A·KAP19/04H·SUM25/04A·ARA02/05H·ZIR08/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.310.920.590.65
vs Stronger (11)0.361.270.171.330.601.20
vs Similar (19)0.530.470.430.570.580.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Camilo Durán40%
Leandro Andrade36%
Marko Janković18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Elvin Jafarguliyev17%
Musa Qurbanlı12%
Oleksiy Kashchuk11%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Kevin Medina8%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matheus Silva33%
Kevin Medina25%
Marko Janković18%
Pedro Bicalho17%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Toral Bayramov11%
Camilo Durán10%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade25%
Joni Montiel20%
Marko Janković18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Kady Borges12%
Camilo Durán10%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Elvin Jafarguliyev8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kevin Medina0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán20%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Matheus Silva0%
Marko Janković0%
Kevin Medina0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Qarabag's squad is €19m more valuable than Imisli FK's (€25m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Qarabag's attack is €5m more valuable than Imisli FK's (€8m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Qarabag's midfield is €3m more valuable than Imisli FK's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Qarabag's defence is €11m more valuable than Imisli FK's (€14m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
QAR wins
0
Draws
0
IF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qarabag vs Imisli FK · H/A from QAR
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26AImisli FK Vs QAR0-1
31/10/25HQAR Vs Imisli FK2-0

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26AQabala Vs QAR1-1
04/05/26HQAR Vs Turan2-1
30/04/26ANeftchi Baku Vs QAR2-1
26/04/26ANeftchi Baku Vs QAR1-5
22/04/26ASabah FA Vs QAR2-1
18/04/26HQAR Vs Sabah FA0-1
11/04/26AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR0-0
06/04/26HQAR Vs Karvan7-0
03/04/26HQAR Vs Sabah FA2-2
20/03/26AKapaz Vs QAR1-0

Imisli FKImisli FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26HIF Vs Zira0-0
02/05/26AAraz Vs IF0-1
25/04/26HIF Vs Sumqayıt0-2
19/04/26AKapaz Vs IF0-1
12/04/26AQabala Vs IF0-1
07/04/26HIF Vs Turan1-1
20/03/26ANeftchi Baku Vs IF6-0
14/03/26HIF Vs Sabah FA0-5
08/03/26AŞamaxı FK Vs IF0-0
01/03/26ATuran Vs IF0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.78
HomeWDWLW1.92
AwayDLWLD1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%58%50%
AVG goals3.343.463.21
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %60%54%67%
Over 3.5 %42%46%38%
Scored2.022.271.75
Conceded1.321.191.46
BTTS56%46%67%
Clean Sheet32%42%21%
Corners10.429.3311.50
Cards2.903.332.25
Imisli FK
Imisli FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.44
HomeDLDLD1.27
AwayDLWWW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%27%46%
AVG goals2.061.772.38
Over 1.5 %54%54%54%
Over 2.5 %32%27%38%
Over 3.5 %22%15%29%
Scored1.020.811.25
Conceded1.040.961.12
BTTS32%35%29%
Clean Sheet46%42%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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