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Qarabag vs Kapaz Result & Analysis

Date: 18/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 3-0
Qarabag
Qarabag
Vs
81%
14%
5%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qarabag win✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz win✗ Miss
5.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D41W01L10W41W30W30W11D20W20WA·KAP15/03A·TUR28/03A·ARA02/04H·ZIR06/04A·SƏB11/04H·NEF19/04H·ARA23/04A·SAB27/04H·SUM04/05H·ARA11/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.970.872.430.931.560.81
vs Stronger (2)0.503.501.004.000.003.00
vs Similar (5)1.001.401.502.000.671.00
vs Weaker (23)2.300.522.730.451.920.58
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L00D11D10W00D12L01L22D10WH·NEF05/03A·SUM10/03H·QAR15/03H·SƏB30/03A·SAB06/04H·ARA13/04A·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.331.061.351.151.31
vs Stronger (19)1.051.681.181.910.881.38
vs Similar (10)0.700.800.830.330.501.50
vs Weaker (1)6.000.00--6.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%011%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.2%
3-0 ✓
12.0%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
8.1%
4-0
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
1-1
6.6%
4-1
5.0%
Qarabag goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
01234
04.2%1.6%0.7%0.1%0.0%
19.2%6.6%1.8%0.4%0.1%
213%8.1%2.5%0.5%0.1%
312%7.4%2.3%0.5%0.1%
48.1%5.0%1.5%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Qarabag is 1.58 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Qarabag is 1.61 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (2.39 vs 0.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Qarabag is 1.28 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.53 vs 1.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W01L10W20W30W00D10W00D10WA·KAP15/03A·TUR28/03A·ARA02/04H·ZIR06/04A·SƏB11/04H·NEF19/04H·ARA23/04A·SAB27/04H·SUM04/05H·ARA11/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.331.210.500.810.19
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (5)0.800.601.501.500.330.00
vs Weaker (23)1.130.261.270.271.000.25
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D10W10W00D11D00D01L10WH·NEF05/03A·SUM10/03H·QAR15/03H·SƏB30/03A·SAB06/04H·ARA13/04A·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.470.650.540.69
vs Stronger (19)0.420.890.551.000.250.75
vs Similar (10)0.300.300.330.000.250.75
vs Weaker (1)4.000.00--4.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W00D00D21W00D30W01L20W10WA·KAP15/03A·TUR28/03A·ARA02/04H·ZIR06/04A·SƏB11/04H·NEF19/04H·ARA23/04A·SAB27/04H·SUM04/05H·ARA11/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.531.210.430.750.62
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.003.000.003.00
vs Similar (5)0.200.800.000.500.331.00
vs Weaker (23)1.170.261.450.180.920.33
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L00D01L00D00D01L01L21W00DH·NEF05/03A·SUM10/03H·QAR15/03H·SƏB30/03A·SAB06/04H·ARA13/04A·ŞAM20/04H·ZIR26/04A·NEF04/05H·SUM11/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.590.710.620.62
vs Stronger (19)0.630.790.640.910.620.62
vs Similar (10)0.400.500.500.330.250.75
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.0%-------✓ Hit
Home win80.7%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira25%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Leandro Andrade10%
Yassine Benzia0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Medina50%
Júlio Romão33%
Marko Janković25%
Patrick Andrade22%
Elvin Cafarquliyev22%
Abbas Hüseynov20%
Bədavi Huseynov20%
Marko Vešović20%
Mateusz Kochalski14%
Juninho Vieira12%
Emmanuel Addai12%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Toral Bayramov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade20%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Juninho Vieira0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira75%
Yassine Benzia22%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qarabag's squad is €19m more valuable than Kapaz's (€25m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qarabag's attack is €7m more valuable than Kapaz's (€8m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qarabag's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kapaz's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qarabag's defence is €11m more valuable than Kapaz's (€14m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
QAR wins
2
Draws
0
KAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qarabag vs Kapaz · H/A from QAR
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/25AKapaz Vs QAR0-0
18/10/24AKapaz Vs QAR0-5
09/08/24HQAR Vs Kapaz3-0
29/03/24AKapaz Vs QAR1-6
27/01/24AKapaz Vs QAR1-2
04/11/23HQAR Vs Kapaz7-1
27/08/23HQAR Vs Kapaz1-1
09/04/23HQAR Vs Kapaz3-1

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25HQAR Vs Araz2-0
04/05/25HQAR Vs Sumqayıt2-0
27/04/25ASabah FA Vs QAR1-1
23/04/25HQAR Vs Araz3-0
19/04/25HQAR Vs Neftchi Baku3-0
11/04/25ASəbail Vs QAR1-4
06/04/25HQAR Vs Zira1-0
02/04/25AAraz Vs QAR1-0
28/03/25ATuran Vs QAR1-4
15/03/25AKapaz Vs QAR0-0

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25HKAP Vs Sumqayıt1-0
04/05/25ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-2
26/04/25HKAP Vs Zira0-1
20/04/25AŞamaxı FK Vs KAP2-1
13/04/25HKAP Vs Araz0-0
06/04/25ASabah FA Vs KAP0-1
30/03/25HKAP Vs Səbail1-1
15/03/25HKAP Vs Qarabag0-0
10/03/25ASumqayıt Vs KAP3-0
05/03/25HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.96
HomeWWWWW1.96
AwayDWLWD1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%64%60%
AVG goals2.923.242.60
Over 1.5 %80%92%68%
Over 2.5 %62%72%52%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.942.201.68
Conceded0.981.040.92
BTTS38%40%36%
Clean Sheet46%48%44%
Corners9.408.4010.40
Cards4.405.003.80
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW1.00
HomeDDDLW1.12
AwayLLWLD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%28%24%
AVG goals2.782.802.76
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %50%40%60%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.041.041.04
Conceded1.741.761.72
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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