Qarabag are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 52% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Neftchi Baku win. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, but the most likely total is two, with a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% chance. In the home arena, Qarabag average 3.57 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded against weaker opposition, while Neftchi Baku, playing away against stronger teams, have not scored in recent matches and concede an average of two goals. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home +2 handicap (91.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.9%) and Under 4.5 (86.3%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are highlighted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Qarabag win
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.17
2.54
1.31
1.53
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
4.50
1.00
6.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.33
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (18)
2.56
0.83
4.00
0.50
1.83
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.00
2.69
1.23
1.71
0.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
0.75
2.60
0.80
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
2.73
0.87
3.17
1.00
2.44
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.4%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.9%
3-0
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
5.6%
Qarabag goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
5.5%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
1
10%
12%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.7%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.7%
5.6%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Qarabag is 0.30 points better than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Qarabag is 0.42 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (2.15 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Qarabag is 0.15 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Qarabag or Draw
79.6%
Avg Implied -
54%
26%
20%
covers Qarabag + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag or Neftchi Baku
73.9%
Avg Implied -
54%
26%
20%
covers Qarabag + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neftchi Baku
46.5%
Avg Implied -
54%
26%
20%
covers Draw + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Qarabag over/under 0.5
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5
Over
62.5%
Under
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Qarabag, so a minus line means Qarabag give that many goals of a start and Neftchi Baku receive them. At -1, Qarabag must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Qarabag win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Qarabag)
Qarabag -2
13.4%
Draw -2
16.8%
Neftchi Baku +2
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Qarabag)
Qarabag -1
30.2%
Draw -1
23.3%
Neftchi Baku +1
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Qarabag)
Qarabag +1
79.6%
Draw +1
12.8%
Neftchi Baku -1
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Qarabag)
Qarabag +2
92.5%
Draw +2
5.5%
Neftchi Baku -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.92
0.77
0.65
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
5.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.39
1.67
0.33
0.92
0.42
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.38
0.38
0.65
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.25
1.60
0.20
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.27
1.50
0.17
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.62
0.54
0.88
0.59
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.39
0.44
2.33
0.17
0.92
0.58
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.31
0.85
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.60
1.67
0.83
1.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Qarabag · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Camilo Durán40%
Leandro Andrade36%
Marko Janković18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Elvin Jafarguliyev17%
Musa Qurbanlı12%
Oleksiy Kashchuk11%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Kevin Medina8%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matheus Silva33%
Kevin Medina25%
Marko Janković18%
Pedro Bicalho17%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Toral Bayramov11%
Camilo Durán10%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade25%
Joni Montiel20%
Marko Janković18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Kady Borges12%
Camilo Durán10%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Elvin Jafarguliyev8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kevin Medina0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán20%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Matheus Silva0%
Marko Janković0%
Kevin Medina0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Qarabag's squad is €12m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€25m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Qarabag's attack is €4m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€8m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Qarabag's defence is €7m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€14m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Sabah FA
Turan
Qabala
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Araz
Sumqayıt