Qarabag’s dominant home form, averaging 3.57 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded against weaker opposition, makes the model pick a home win. The probability of a home victory is 83 %, with a draw at 12 % and an away win at 4 %. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, which carries a 14.2 % chance. The match is projected to produce three goals, a 22 % probability for that total.
The model’s suggested picks reinforce the home advantage: Away under 3.5 goals99.8 %, Home +2 handicap99.0 %, Away under 2.5 goals98.3 %, Under 7.598.0 %, Home or Draw95.9 %, Home +1 handicap95.9 %, Under 6.594.9 %, and Home over 0.5 goals93.8 %. The edge percentages are omitted because they are not provided.
Qarabag’s recent streak of three straight wins, capped by a 1-0 win over Twente, and Safa Baku’s return from a win but with a 1-0 loss to Qabala, add context but do not alter the clear favourite. The model’s high confidence in a 2-0 result reflects the home side’s offensive potency and the away side’s defensive frailties.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Qarabag win
83.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku win
4.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.17
2.54
1.31
1.53
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
4.50
1.00
6.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.33
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (18)
2.56
0.83
4.00
0.50
1.83
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.87
1.64
0.79
1.75
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
1.83
0.67
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
1.00
1.50
0.88
2.22
1.11
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.9%
No
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.1%
3-0
13.2%
1-0
9.5%
4-0
9.3%
2-1
7.4%
3-1
6.9%
1-1
5.8%
5-0
5.2%
Qarabag goals ↓
Safa Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
9.5%
5.8%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
2
14%
7.4%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
3
13%
6.9%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
4
9.3%
4.9%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Safa Baku goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Qarabag is 1.00 points better than Safa Baku in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Qarabag is 1.13 goals better than Safa Baku in terms of goals scored per game (2.15 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Qarabag is 0.75 goals better than Safa Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Qarabag or Draw
96.0%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Qarabag + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag or Safa Baku
87.9%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Qarabag + Safa Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Safa Baku
16.1%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Draw + Safa Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Qarabag over/under 0.5
Over
94.0%
Under
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 3.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5
Over
40.8%
Under
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Qarabag, so a minus line means Qarabag give that many goals of a start and Safa Baku receive them. At -1, Qarabag must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Qarabag win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Qarabag)
Qarabag -2
42.6%
Draw -2
22.4%
Safa Baku +2
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Qarabag)
Qarabag -1
65.0%
Draw -1
18.9%
Safa Baku +1
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Qarabag)
Qarabag +1
96.0%
Draw +1
3.1%
Safa Baku -1
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Qarabag)
Qarabag +2
99.1%
Draw +2
0.8%
Safa Baku -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.92
0.77
0.65
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
5.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.39
1.67
0.33
0.92
0.42
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
0.57
0.21
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.23
0.33
0.17
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.24
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.62
0.54
0.88
0.59
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.39
0.44
2.33
0.17
0.92
0.58
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.07
0.57
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.46
1.50
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.76
0.75
0.62
1.22
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Qarabag · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Camilo Durán40%
Leandro Andrade36%
Marko Janković18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Elvin Jafarguliyev17%
Musa Qurbanlı12%
Oleksiy Kashchuk11%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Kevin Medina8%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matheus Silva33%
Kevin Medina25%
Marko Janković18%
Pedro Bicalho17%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Toral Bayramov11%
Camilo Durán10%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade25%
Joni Montiel20%
Marko Janković18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Kady Borges12%
Camilo Durán10%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Elvin Jafarguliyev8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kevin Medina0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán20%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Matheus Silva0%
Marko Janković0%
Kevin Medina0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Qarabag's squad is €21m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€25m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Qarabag's attack is €7m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€8m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Qarabag's midfield is €3m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Qarabag's defence is €11m more valuable than Safa Baku's (€14m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt