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Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK Result & Analysis

Date: 04/03/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Qarabag
Qarabag
vs
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qarabag win
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win
-
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W02L06L10W12L21W10W16L23L33DH·EIN21/01H·KAP24/01A·LIV28/01H·TUR01/02A·ŞAM05/02A·ŞAM10/02A·IMI14/02H·NEW18/02A·NEW24/02H·SAB01/03
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.531.941.251.791.86
vs Stronger (7)1.433.571.674.001.253.25
vs Similar (5)2.002.002.671.671.002.50
vs Weaker (18)2.000.611.800.302.251.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W21W02L04L20W21W12L00D00D22DA·KAR07/12H·ZIR13/12A·ARA21/12H·QAB24/01A·KAP31/01H·QAR05/02H·QAR10/02H·TUR16/02A·IMI22/02H·NEF28/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.131.061.380.930.86
vs Stronger (14)0.931.291.141.290.711.29
vs Similar (14)1.071.071.001.501.170.50
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
0.0%
No
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.50
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Qarabag
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Turan
2.00
Difai Ağsu
1.50
MOIK
1.50
Səbail
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.33
Zira
1.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
0.98
Goy-Gol
0.98
Şəki PFK
0.98
Kür-Araz
0.98
Xankəndi FK
0.98
Şirvan FK
0.98
Araz Saatlı
0.98
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Safa Baku
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Qarabag is 0.50 points better than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Turan
4.50
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
MOIK
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Difai Ağsu
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Ağstafa Gəncləri
1.46
Goy-Gol
1.46
Şəki PFK
1.46
Kür-Araz
1.46
Xankəndi FK
1.46
Şirvan FK
1.46
Araz Saatlı
1.46
Şəmkir
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Sumqayıt
1.00
Zira
1.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Qarabag is 1.67 goals worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 3.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Qarabag
0.83
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Sabah FA
1.00
Zira
1.33
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
MOIK
2.00
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Turan
2.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
2.61
Goy-Gol
2.61
Şəki PFK
2.61
Kür-Araz
2.61
Xankəndi FK
2.61
Şirvan FK
2.61
Araz Saatlı
2.61
Şimal
3.00
Safa Baku
3.00
Karvan
3.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Qarabag is 1.17 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D01L02L10W02L11D00D05L02L01LH·EIN21/01H·KAP24/01A·LIV28/01H·TUR01/02A·ŞAM05/02A·ŞAM10/02A·IMI14/02H·NEW18/02A·NEW24/02H·SAB01/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.620.620.711.00
vs Stronger (7)0.571.861.002.330.251.50
vs Similar (5)0.800.600.670.671.000.50
vs Weaker (18)0.670.440.500.100.880.88
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D01L20W20W11D00D00D00DA·KAR07/12H·ZIR13/12A·ARA21/12H·QAB24/01A·KAP31/01H·QAR05/02H·QAR10/02H·TUR16/02A·IMI22/02H·NEF28/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.330.500.440.500.21
vs Stronger (14)0.500.430.430.430.570.43
vs Similar (14)0.500.290.500.500.500.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L04L00D10W10W10W11D21W32WH·EIN21/01H·KAP24/01A·LIV28/01H·TUR01/02A·ŞAM05/02A·ŞAM10/02A·IMI14/02H·NEW18/02A·NEW24/02H·SAB01/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.731.310.621.070.86
vs Stronger (7)0.861.710.671.671.001.75
vs Similar (5)1.201.402.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (18)1.330.171.300.201.380.12
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W02L03L00D01L01L00D00D22DA·KAR07/12H·ZIR13/12A·ARA21/12H·QAB24/01A·KAP31/01H·QAR05/02H·QAR10/02H·TUR16/02A·IMI22/02H·NEF28/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.560.940.430.64
vs Stronger (14)0.430.860.710.860.140.86
vs Similar (14)0.570.790.501.000.670.50
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

No selections above 70% probability for this match.

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
ZIR (23)
€12m
ARA (19)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
ARA (7)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
ARA (5)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
ZIR (10)
€6m
ARA (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
QAR wins
1
Draws
1
ŞF wins

Head-to-head

Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK · H/A from QAR
DateH/AGameScore
10/02/26AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR1-2
05/02/26AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR2-1
26/10/25HQAR Vs Şamaxı FK0-0
24/05/25AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR0-1
17/01/25HQAR Vs Şamaxı FK3-2
19/12/24AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR0-1
27/10/24HQAR Vs Şamaxı FK3-0
02/04/23AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR0-1

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/26HQAR Vs Sabah FA3-3
24/02/26ANewcastle Vs QAR3-2
18/02/26HQAR Vs Newcastle1-6
14/02/26AImisli FK Vs QAR0-1
10/02/26AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR1-2
05/02/26AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR2-1
01/02/26HQAR Vs Turan1-0
28/01/26ALiverpool Vs QAR6-0
24/01/26HQAR Vs Kapaz0-2
21/01/26HQAR Vs Eintracht Frankfurt3-2

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26HŞF Vs Neftchi Baku2-2
22/02/26AImisli FK Vs ŞF0-0
16/02/26HŞF Vs Turan0-0
10/02/26HŞF Vs Qarabag1-2
05/02/26HŞF Vs Qarabag2-1
31/01/26AKapaz Vs ŞF0-2
24/01/26HŞF Vs Qabala0-4
21/12/25AAraz Vs ŞF2-0
13/12/25HŞF Vs Zira2-1
07/12/25AKarvan Vs ŞF0-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.98
HomeWLWLD2.07
AwayLLWWL1.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%64%59%
AVG goals3.103.043.18
Over 1.5 %80%79%82%
Over 2.5 %54%46%64%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.922.001.82
Conceded1.181.041.36
BTTS46%36%59%
Clean Sheet44%57%27%
Corners10.429.3311.50
Cards2.903.332.25
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDD1.16
HomeLWLDD1.23
AwayDWLWD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals2.222.152.29
Over 1.5 %66%58%75%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %16%15%17%
Scored1.000.961.04
Conceded1.221.191.25
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet30%27%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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