Qarabag enter the match riding a strong home spell, having won four of their last five games and just edged Sumqayit 1-0 in their previous encounter. The model therefore rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 68% probability to the result. The expected total of 3.2 goals translates to an average of just over three goals, with the most likely total being 3 at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, which the model assigns a 10.8% chance.
At home, Qarabag have been prolific, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game and conceding only 0.67 against weaker opposition. Sumqayit, playing away against stronger opponents, have struggled, netting just 0.83 goals per match while conceding 1.83.
The model’s selection list includes an 83.7% chance of Over 1.5 goals. No other picks appear. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 68% for a home win, 20% for a draw, and 12% for an away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Qarabag’s strong run, adding a second straight victory to their last-five tally of WLWWW. The model’s favourite, a Home win at 68%, proved correct as Qarabag triumphed 2-0 over Sumqayit. The predicted 3-goal total was close to the 2-goal reality, but the most likely score of 2-0, with a 10.8% chance, materialised. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals at 83.7%, hit as well. Qarabag’s home form, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against weaker opposition, contrasted with Sumqayit’s away struggles, scoring just 0.83 and conceding 1.83 against stronger teams. Overall, the predictions aligned well with the match outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Qarabag win✓ Hit
68.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
12.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.10
2.33
0.87
2.07
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.22
1.60
1.20
2.25
1.25
vs Weaker (19)
2.53
0.84
3.00
0.67
2.10
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
0.73
1.40
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.00
0.57
2.14
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.76
0.88
0.75
1.44
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.0%
Under 2.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
1-0
8.6%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
4.9%
4-0
4.8%
Qarabag goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
2.8%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.6%
9.3%
3.8%
1.1%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.3%
7.4%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.8%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Qarabag is 0.72 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (2.31 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Qarabag is 1.67 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (2.69 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Qarabag is 0.03 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.33
1.33
0.20
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.26
1.89
0.22
1.10
0.30
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.06
0.25
0.00
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
1.00
0.67
1.13
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.58
1.11
0.44
1.00
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.33
0.93
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.00
0.00
1.14
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.71
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira50%
Yassine Benzia18%
Abdellah Zoubir18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Redon Xhixha14%
Matheus Silva12%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Toral Bayramov9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Júlio Romão56%
Kevin Medina43%
Marko Vešović33%
Redon Xhixha29%
Juninho Vieira20%
Patrick Andrade20%
Elvin Cafarquliyev20%
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Janković18%
Matheus Silva12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Andrey Lunev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Vešović17%
Hamidou Keyta14%
Bədavi Huseynov11%
Juninho Vieira10%
Patrick Andrade10%
Elvin Cafarquliyev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira30%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Yassine Benzia0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qarabag's squad is €15m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€25m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qarabag's attack is €4m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€8m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qarabag's midfield is €1m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qarabag's defence is €10m more valuable than Sumqayıt's (€14m vs €4m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
Turan
Səbail
Araz
Kapaz
Qabala